Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks

NHL · October 4, 2026

Florida Panthers vs Anaheim Ducks Final — October 4, 2026

Florida Panthers

1-0-1

Goalie Jacob Markstrom Likely

FINAL

Anaheim Ducks

1-0-0

Goalie Lukas Dostal Likely

Sunday, October 4 · 8:10 PM ET

FLAStarting goaliesANA

This season

Starts

1.000

Sv%

.900

1.000

HDSv%

.667

+2.2

GSAx

+0.4

Last season

Starts

.883

Sv%

.888

.828

HDSv%

.831

−17.1

GSAx

+0.6

FLAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)ANA

18th3.06

GF/G

3.3310th

18th7.11

PP GF/60

6.4124th

FLADefenseANA

28th3.37

GA/G

3.5129th

10th7.07

PK GA/60

8.4826th

FLATeamANA

25th51.2%

Pts%

56.1%15th

16th50.2%

xGF%

50.5%15th

9th51.7%

CF%

52.4%6th

20th48.3%

HDCF%

47.6%21st

FLA5-on-5ANA

15th2.56

xGF/60

2.793rd

17th2.54

xGA/60

2.7730th

15th9.6%

Sh%

8.9%25th

28th89.3%

Sv%

89.3%29th

20th114.6

CF/60 (both)

122.32nd

27th−0.21

GAx/G

−0.1524th

28th−0.26

GSAx/G

−0.1625th

19th10.2%

Sh%

10.0%24th

27th88.5%

Sv%

88.3%30th

27th46.3%

xGF% (L20)

53.3%10th

FLASpecial teamsANA

8th8.22

PP xG/60

7.1923rd

5th83.7

PP FF/60

76.919th

3rd5.3

PP min/G

5.24th

5th6.54

PK xGA/60

7.7417th

31st5.4

PK min/G

5.230th

FLARecent formANA

W@ CAR 1-0OTL@ SJS 3-4

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ VGK 4-3

Game by game

1-0-1

Record

1-0-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

FLARest & travelANA

3 days

Days of rest

2 days

332 mi535 km

Travel to the game

Home

FLAKey injuriesANA

Aleksander Barkov CIRGustav Forsling DDay-to-day

Players out or limited

Troy Terry RWIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 4, 9:40 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Panthers (1-0-1) visited the Ducks (1-0-0) on Sunday, October 4 at 8:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Panthers scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.37 (28th). The Ducks scored 3.33 goals per game (10th of 32) and allowed 3.51 (29th). The Panthers earned 51.2% of available standings points (25th) and the Ducks 56.1% (15th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Panthers 50.2% (16th), Ducks 50.5% (15th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Panthers 51.7% (9th), Ducks 52.4% (6th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Panthers 48.3% (20th), Ducks 47.6% (21st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Panthers -143, Ducks +120) prices the Panthers at 56% and the Ducks at 44%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Florida Panthers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3

Anaheim Ducks won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Anaheim Ducks +1.5): Anaheim Ducks covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Anaheim Ducks closed at +120 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Florida Panthers 2
Anaheim Ducks 3

Decided

In overtime

Anaheim Ducks won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

56%Market at the close44%

Florida PanthersAnaheim Ducks

54%Market at the open46%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Florida Panthers.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida Panthers 56%, Anaheim Ducks 44%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

3rd 18:10 — Florida Panthers goal (2-2)Florida Panthers 9% → 52% (+43 pts)
OT 2:34 — Florida Panthers penaltyAnaheim Ducks 48% → 69% (+21 pts)
OT 4:14 — Anaheim Ducks goal (2-3)Anaheim Ducks 57% → 100% (+43 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

71%FLA

Share of G&W replays won

29%ANA

2.9

Expected goals

1.6

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Florida Panthers won 71% of G&W replays (Anaheim Ducks 29%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Florida Panthers. Here is where that came from.

Panthers	Goals	Ducks
2.0	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.2
0.9	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.3
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
2.9	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	1.6
0.8	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.8
0.7	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.3
-1.6	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.6
-0.6	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jacob Markstrom 18/21 · Lukas Dostal 29/31	+1.6

Bar left: Panthers gainedBar right: Ducks gained

How the margin was built, from Anaheim Ducks's side:

Chances -1.2Finishing & goaltending +2.2Anaheim Ducks by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Jessica's HandicapAnaheim Ducks ML +1221.00uWIN +1.22u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Florida Panthers closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.

The line moved toward Florida Panthers before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenDucks +1.5 (-225)
Panthers -1.5 (+180)

CloseDucks +1.5 (-219)
Panthers -1.5 (+174)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -127 / u +105)

Close6.5 (o -122 / u +100)

Moneyline

OpenPanthers -129 54%
Ducks +109 46%

ClosePanthers -143 56%
Ducks +120 44%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Panthers won 9 and the Ducks 5.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 4, 2025	Panthers 3, Ducks 7 Ducks won	Panthers -162 underdog won	6 over
Oct 28, 2025	Ducks 3, Panthers 2 SO Ducks won	Panthers -185 underdog won	6.5 under
Jan 21, 2025	Panthers 5, Ducks 2 Panthers won	Panthers -275 favorite won	5.5 over
Jan 18, 2025	Ducks 0, Panthers 3 Panthers won	Panthers -425 favorite won	6 under
Jan 15, 2024	Ducks 5, Panthers 4 OT Ducks won	Panthers -380 underdog won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams