New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — October 22, 2026
NYRStarting goaliesTOR
NYROffense2026-27 regular season to dateTORNYRDefenseTORNYRTeamTORNYR5-on-5TORNYRSpecial teamsTORNYRRecent formTORNYRHome and roadseason to dateTORInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYRRest & travelTORNYRKey injuriesTORAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 22, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Rangers (7-3-1) visited the Maple Leafs (5-4-2) on Thursday, October 22 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Rangers score 3.00 goals per game (17th of 32) and allow 2.18 (2nd). The Maple Leafs score 3.45 goals per game (8th of 32) and allow 3.18 (18th). The Rangers earn 68.2% of available standings points (9th) and the Maple Leafs 54.5% (21st).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Rangers 48.9% (19th), Maple Leafs 48.0% (22nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Rangers 45.9% (26th), Maple Leafs 45.9% (25th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Rangers 59.5% (9th), Maple Leafs 50.0% (16th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rangers -110, Maple Leafs -110) prices the Rangers at 50% and the Maple Leafs at 50%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Toronto Maple Leafs won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Toronto Maple Leafs closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward New York Rangers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Rangers 50%, Toronto Maple Leafs 50%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 19:09 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (3-4)Toronto Maple Leafs 52% → 76% (+25 pts)
- 3rd 14:25 — New York Rangers goal (4-4)New York Rangers 12% → 50% (+38 pts)
- 3rd 19:32 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (4-5)Toronto Maple Leafs 50% → 97% (+48 pts)
Toronto Maple Leafs won after falling as low as 30% (2nd 8:00).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Toronto Maple Leafs won 59% of G&W replays (New York Rangers 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Rangers | Goals | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.3 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.4 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.1 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.6 |
| +1.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.2 |
| -2.2 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Dylan Garand 30/35 · Sergei Bobrovsky 21/25 | -1.9 |
How the margin was built, from Toronto Maple Leafs's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 50% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rangers -1.5 (+202)
Rangers -1.5 (+210)
Maple Leafs -112 51%
Maple Leafs -110 50%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Rangers won 10 and the Maple Leafs 11.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Rangers 3, Maple Leafs 4 Maple Leafs won | Rangers -134 underdog won | 6 over |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Maple Leafs 2, Rangers 6 Rangers won | Rangers -130 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Rangers 1, Maple Leafs 2 OT Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -150 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Rangers 3 Maple Leafs won | Rangers -135 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Maple Leafs 3, Rangers 2 Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -118 favorite won | 6 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Rangers
- New York Rangers team stats
- Los Angeles Kings 6, New York Rangers 3 (Oct 26)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Rangers 5 (Oct 19)
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs team stats
- Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken (Oct 28)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5 (Oct 26)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (Oct 20)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 22, 2026
- Nashville Predators 0, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 22)
- Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 22)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
- Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (Oct 22)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
- Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 22)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
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