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NHL · October 4, 2026

Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks Final — October 4, 2026

Vegas Golden Knights

1-1-0

Goalie Adin Hill Likely

FINAL

Vancouver Canucks

2-1-0

Goalie Kevin Lankinen Likely

Sunday, October 4 · 9:10 PM ET

VGKStarting goaliesVAN

This season

—

Starts

—

Sv%

.789

—

HDSv%

.545

—

GSAx

−7.3

Last season

Starts

.871

Sv%

.875

.746

HDSv%

.828

−16.2

GSAx

−24.4

VGKOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)VAN

14th3.23

GF/G

2.6330th

3rd9.64

PP GF/60

8.3412th

VGKDefenseVAN

13th3.05

GA/G

3.8532nd

8th6.85

PK GA/60

10.3831st

VGKTeamVAN

12th57.9%

Pts%

35.4%32nd

4th54.5%

xGF%

44.1%31st

7th52.3%

CF%

46.5%29th

1st59.9%

HDCF%

41.8%32nd

VGK5-on-5VAN

14th2.57

xGF/60

2.2729th

2nd2.15

xGA/60

2.8832nd

19th9.3%

Sh%

8.2%29th

31st89.0%

Sv%

89.2%30th

24th112.6

CF/60 (both)

114.123rd

17th+0.04

GAx/G

−0.2630th

31st−0.37

GSAx/G

−0.3630th

13th10.8%

Sh%

9.5%28th

28th88.4%

Sv%

88.0%32nd

2nd57.9%

xGF% (L20)

42.4%29th

VGKSpecial teamsVAN

2nd9.29

PP xG/60

8.1210th

7th83.4

PP FF/60

81.011th

26th4.4

PP min/G

4.524th

1st5.92

PK xGA/60

8.1725th

2nd4.1

PK min/G

4.37th

VGKRecent formVAN

Wvs CHI 5-2Lvs ANA 3-4

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ EDM 6-5Lvs EDM 7-9Wvs CGY 4-1

Game by game

1-1-0

Record

2-1-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

VGKRest & travelVAN

2 days

Days of rest

1 dayback-to-back

994 mi1,600 km

Travel to the game

Home

VGKKey injuriesVAN

None listed

Players out or limited

Jake DeBrusk LWDay-to-day

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 4, 9:40 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Golden Knights (1-1-0) visited the Canucks (2-1-0) on Sunday, October 4 at 9:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Golden Knights scored 3.23 goals per game (14th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Canucks scored 2.63 goals per game (30th of 32) and allowed 3.85 (32nd). The Golden Knights earned 57.9% of available standings points (12th) and the Canucks 35.4% (32nd).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Golden Knights 54.5% (4th), Canucks 44.1% (31st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Golden Knights 52.3% (7th), Canucks 46.5% (29th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Golden Knights 59.9% (1st), Canucks 41.8% (32nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Golden Knights -300, Canucks +240) prices the Golden Knights at 72% and the Canucks at 28%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Vegas Golden Knights 3, Vancouver Canucks 2

Vegas Golden Knights won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Vancouver Canucks +1.5): Vancouver Canucks covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Vegas Golden Knights closed at -300 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Vegas Golden Knights 3
Vancouver Canucks 2

Decided

In regulation

Vegas Golden Knights won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

72%Market at the close28%

Vegas Golden KnightsVancouver Canucks

67%Market at the open33%

From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Vegas Golden Knights.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Vegas Golden Knights 72%, Vancouver Canucks 28%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 9:01 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (1-1)Vegas Golden Knights 45% → 67% (+21 pts)
2nd 17:54 — Vancouver Canucks goal (2-2)Vancouver Canucks 15% → 36% (+20 pts)
2nd 18:28 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (3-2)Vegas Golden Knights 64% → 85% (+21 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

89%VGK

Share of G&W replays won

11%VAN

4.9

Expected goals

1.4

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Vegas Golden Knights won 89% of G&W replays (Vancouver Canucks 11%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Vegas Golden Knights. Here is where that came from.

Golden Knights	Goals	Canucks
3.1	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	0.9
1.8	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.2
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.3
4.9	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	1.4
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.1
1.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.1
-1.9	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.5
-0.5	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Adin Hill 18/20 · Kevin Lankinen 25/28	+1.9

Bar left: Golden Knights gainedBar right: Canucks gained

How the margin was built, from Vegas Golden Knights's side:

Chances +3.4Finishing & goaltending -2.4Vegas Golden Knights by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Vegas Golden Knights closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.

The line moved toward Vegas Golden Knights before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenCanucks +1.5 (-127)
Golden Knights -1.5 (+105)

CloseCanucks +1.5 (-105)
Golden Knights -1.5 (-118)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +102 / u -124)

Close6.5 (o +102 / u -125)

Moneyline

OpenGolden Knights -230 67%
Canucks +190 33%

CloseGolden Knights -300 72%
Canucks +240 28%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 24 times since 2018-19: the Golden Knights won 17 and the Canucks 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Apr 7, 2026	Golden Knights 2, Canucks 1 Golden Knights won
Mar 30, 2026	Canucks 2, Golden Knights 4 Golden Knights won
Feb 4, 2026	Canucks 2, Golden Knights 5 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -315 favorite won	6.5 over
Apr 16, 2025	Golden Knights 4, Canucks 1 Golden Knights won	Canucks -111 underdog won	5.5 under
Apr 6, 2025	Golden Knights 3, Canucks 2 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -172 favorite won	5.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams