Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins Final — October 5, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesBOS
OTTOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)BOSOTTDefenseBOSOTTTeamBOSOTT5-on-5BOSOTTSpecial teamsBOSOTTRecent formBOSInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelBOSOTTKey injuriesBOSAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 5, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators (1-0-0) visited the Bruins (2-1-0) on Monday, October 5 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Bruins scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Senators earned 60.4% of available standings points (9th) and the Bruins 61.0% (8th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 54.8% (3rd), Bruins 47.1% (28th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 52.9% (5th), Bruins 48.9% (19th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 56.0% (4th), Bruins 42.5% (31st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators -115, Bruins -105) prices the Senators at 51% and the Bruins at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 4, Boston Bruins 1
Ottawa Senators won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Boston Bruins +1.5): Ottawa Senators covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -115 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Boston Bruins 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 51%, Boston Bruins 49%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 7:39 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-0)Ottawa Senators 49% → 65% (+16 pts)
- 1st 9:22 — Ottawa Senators goal (2-0)Ottawa Senators 66% → 80% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 1:06 — Ottawa Senators goal (3-0)Ottawa Senators 83% → 93% (+9 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Boston Bruins won 54% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Senators | Goals | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.4 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.0 |
| +1.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.4 |
| +1.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Linus Ullmark 10/10, Samuel Ersson 8/9 · Jeremy Swayman 20/24 | -1.8 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators +1.5 (-219)
Senators -1.5 (+212)
Bruins -120 52%
Bruins -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 11 and the Bruins 15.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Senators 6, Bruins 2 Senators won | Senators -148 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Bruins 3, Senators 5 Senators won | Senators -160 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Senators 2, Bruins 3 OT Bruins won | Senators -160 underdog won | 6 under |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Bruins 2, Senators 7 Senators won | Senators -173 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Bruins 3, Senators 6 Senators won | Senators -198 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
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Boston Bruins
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