San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars Final — October 5, 2026
SJStarting goaliesDAL
SJOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DALSJDefenseDALSJTeamDALSJ5-on-5DALSJSpecial teamsDALSJRecent formDALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SJRest & travelDALSJKey injuriesDALAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 5, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sharks (2-0-0) visited the Stars (0-2-0) on Monday, October 5 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sharks scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.56 (30th). The Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Sharks earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Stars 68.3% (3rd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sharks 47.4% (26th), Stars 50.8% (13th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sharks 46.9% (28th), Stars 47.5% (27th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sharks 54.7% (7th), Stars 55.9% (5th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sharks +165, Stars -200) prices the Sharks at 36% and the Stars at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Jose Sharks 0, Dallas Stars 5
Dallas Stars won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Dallas Stars -1.5): Dallas Stars covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Dallas Stars closed at -200 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Dallas Stars 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Dallas Stars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose Sharks 36%, Dallas Stars 64%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 18:51 — Dallas Stars goal (0-1)Dallas Stars 62% → 77% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 3:17 — Dallas Stars goal (0-2)Dallas Stars 78% → 90% (+12 pts)
- 2nd 6:19 — Dallas Stars goal (0-3)Dallas Stars 90% → 96% (+6 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 88% of G&W replays (San Jose Sharks 12%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Dallas Stars. Here is where that came from.
| Sharks | Goals | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.4 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.1 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.4 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.6 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.8 |
| -1.6 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.4 |
| -0.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Yaroslav Askarov 21/26 · Jake Oettinger 13/13 | +1.6 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.
The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sharks +1.5 (-170)
Sharks +1.5 (-160)
Stars -170 60%
Stars -200 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 19 times since 2018-19: the Sharks won 6 and the Stars 13.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Stars 4, Sharks 5 OT Sharks won | Stars -162 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Stars 5, Sharks 3 Stars won | Stars -200 favorite won | 6 over |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Sharks 1, Stars 4 Stars won | Stars -278 favorite won | 6 under |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Stars 8, Sharks 3 Stars won | Stars -250 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Sharks 2, Stars 5 Stars won | Stars -480 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
San Jose Sharks
- San Jose Sharks team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Dallas Stars
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