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NHL · October 5, 2026

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Final — October 5, 2026

Philadelphia Flyers

0-1-2

Goalie Dan Vladar Likely

FINAL

Tampa Bay Lightning

1-1-0

Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy Likely

Monday, October 5 · 7:10 PM ET

PHIStarting goaliesTB

This season

Starts

.816

Sv%

.889

.667

HDSv%

1.000

−2.5

GSAx

+0.1

Last season

Starts

.906

Sv%

.912

.831

HDSv%

.888

+10.3

GSAx

+21.5

PHIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TB

20th3.05

GF/G

3.544th

32nd5.57

PP GF/60

7.5116th

PHIDefenseTB

9th2.96

GA/G

2.823rd

23rd8.31

PK GA/60

6.103rd

PHITeamTB

10th59.8%

Pts%

64.6%5th

11th51.0%

xGF%

54.2%5th

26th47.7%

CF%

53.3%3rd

9th53.7%

HDCF%

57.9%2nd

PHI5-on-5TB

23rd2.36

xGF/60

2.735th

4th2.27

xGA/60

2.305th

10th10.2%

Sh%

11.1%3rd

15th90.5%

Sv%

90.8%12th

31st107.5

CF/60 (both)

111.826th

23rd−0.15

GAx/G

+0.1310th

23rd−0.10

GSAx/G

+0.1012th

14th10.6%

Sh%

11.5%4th

23rd89.1%

Sv%

90.2%10th

8th53.5%

xGF% (L20)

53.0%11th

PHISpecial teamsTB

6th8.32

PP xG/60

7.6213th

14th78.4

PP FF/60

75.722nd

13th4.8

PP min/G

4.810th

7th7.03

PK xGA/60

7.3711th

21st4.9

PK min/G

5.129th

PHIRecent formTB

Lvs PIT 0-7OTL@ NJD 2-3OTLvs CAR 2-3

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ NYR 1-5Wvs WSH 3-1

Game by game

0-1-2

Record

1-1-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

PHIRest & travelTB

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

925 mi1,488 km

Travel to the game

Home

PHIKey injuriesTB

None listed

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Injury report as of October 5, 6:40 a.m. ET: no key players listed for either team.

The pre-game matchup

The Flyers (0-1-2) visited the Lightning (1-1-0) on Monday, October 5 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Flyers earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Lightning 64.6% (5th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flyers 51.0% (11th), Lightning 54.2% (5th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flyers 47.7% (26th), Lightning 53.3% (3rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flyers 53.7% (9th), Lightning 57.9% (2nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flyers +185, Lightning -225) prices the Flyers at 34% and the Lightning at 66%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Tampa Bay Lightning won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5): Tampa Bay Lightning covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Decided

In regulation

Tampa Bay Lightning won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

34%Market at the close66%

Philadelphia FlyersTampa Bay Lightning

39%Market at the open61%

From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Tampa Bay Lightning.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Philadelphia Flyers 34%, Tampa Bay Lightning 66%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 16:05 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (0-1)Tampa Bay Lightning 64% → 79% (+15 pts)
2nd 0:17 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (0-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 79% → 90% (+11 pts)
2nd 7:22 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (1-2)Philadelphia Flyers 9% → 20% (+11 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

17%PHI

Share of G&W replays won

83%TBL

1.4

Expected goals

4.0

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 83% of G&W replays (Philadelphia Flyers 17%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.

Flyers	Goals	Lightning
0.9	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.9
0.4	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.1
0.1	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
1.4	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	4.0
0.0	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.6
-0.5	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.0
+1.0	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Dan Vladar 32/35 · Andrei Vasilevskiy 13/14	+0.5
0	Empty-net goals	1

Bar left: Flyers gainedBar right: Lightning gained

How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:

Chances +2.5Finishing & goaltending -0.5Empty net +1Tampa Bay Lightning by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.

The line moved toward Tampa Bay Lightning before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenLightning -1.5 (+145)
Flyers +1.5 (-177)

CloseLightning -1.5 (+114)
Flyers +1.5 (-142)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -122 / u +102)

Close5.5 (o -125 / u +102)

Moneyline

OpenFlyers +145 39%
Lightning -175 61%

CloseFlyers +185 34%
Lightning -225 66%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 20 times since 2018-19: the Flyers won 4 and the Lightning 16.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 12, 2026	Lightning 5, Flyers 1 Lightning won	Lightning -148 favorite won	6 push
Jan 10, 2026	Lightning 7, Flyers 2 Lightning won	Lightning -185 favorite won	6 over
Nov 24, 2025	Flyers 0, Lightning 3 Lightning won	Lightning -178 favorite won	6 under
Mar 17, 2025	Flyers 0, Lightning 2 Lightning won	Lightning -325 favorite won	5.5 under
Mar 13, 2025	Lightning 3, Flyers 4 SO Flyers won	Lightning -155 underdog won	6 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams