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NHL · October 5, 2026

Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins Final — October 5, 2026

Winnipeg Jets logo
Winnipeg Jets
1-0-1
3
Goalie Clay Stevenson Confirmed
FINAL
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Pittsburgh Penguins
2-0-0
2
Goalie Arturs Silovs Likely
Monday, October 5 · 7:40 PM ET
WPGStarting goaliesPIT
This season
—
Starts
2
—
Sv%
.886
—
HDSv%
.714
—
GSAx
−0.3
Last season
4
Starts
38
.921
Sv%
.888
.923
HDSv%
.817
+3.7
GSAx
−11.5
WPGOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)PIT
25th2.82
GF/G
3.573rd
23rd6.48
PP GF/60
8.5010th
WPGDefensePIT
22nd3.17
GA/G
3.2724th
20th7.98
PK GA/60
6.787th
WPGTeamPIT
26th50.0%
Pts%
59.8%10th
25th47.5%
xGF%
51.7%8th
22nd48.8%
CF%
50.2%13th
29th44.6%
HDCF%
57.4%3rd
WPG5-on-5PIT
27th2.29
xGF/60
2.726th
18th2.54
xGA/60
2.5416th
20th9.3%
Sh%
11.1%2nd
16th90.5%
Sv%
90.1%20th
27th111.3
CF/60 (both)
116.911th
19th−0.05
GAx/G
+0.263rd
21st−0.09
GSAx/G
−0.0820th
20th10.1%
Sh%
11.8%3rd
21st89.3%
Sv%
89.1%24th
26th46.4%
xGF% (L20)
50.8%18th
WPGSpecial teamsPIT
29th7.01
PP xG/60
7.7412th
29th70.2
PP FF/60
80.013th
17th4.7
PP min/G
4.619th
9th7.32
PK xGA/60
6.504th
10th4.5
PK min/G
4.715th
WPGRecent formPIT
OTLvs BOS 3-4W@ DET 3-2
Resultsoldest to newest
W@ PHI 7-0Wvs MTL 6-5
below 50%below 50%
Game by game
above 50%below 50%
1-0-1
Record
2-0-0
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
WPGRest & travelPIT
1 dayback-to-back
Days of rest
2 days
206 mi332 km
Travel to the game
Home
WPGKey injuriesPIT
Connor Hellebuyck GIR
Players out or limited
Bryan Rust RWIR
About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 5, 6:40 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Jets (1-0-1) visited the Penguins (2-0-0) on Monday, October 5 at 7:40 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Jets scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.17 (22nd). The Penguins scored 3.57 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allowed 3.27 (24th). The Jets earned 50.0% of available standings points (26th) and the Penguins 59.8% (10th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Jets 47.5% (25th), Penguins 51.7% (8th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Jets 48.8% (22nd), Penguins 50.2% (13th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Jets 44.6% (29th), Penguins 57.4% (3rd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets +146, Penguins -175) prices the Jets at 39% and the Penguins at 61%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Winnipeg Jets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2

Winnipeg Jets won by 1.

  • Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5): Winnipeg Jets covered.
  • Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
  • Winnipeg Jets closed at +146 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final
Winnipeg Jets 3
Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Decided
In regulation
Winnipeg Jets won
Lead changes
1

Before the game: market and G&W

39%Market at the close61%
Winnipeg JetsPittsburgh Penguins
40%Market at the open60%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Pittsburgh Penguins.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Winnipeg Jets 39%, Pittsburgh Penguins 61%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

100%75%50%75%100%1st2nd3rdOTMarket start13rd 7:08: Winnipeg Jets 44% to 76%23rd 8:53: Pittsburgh Penguins 23% to 55%33rd 9:02: Winnipeg Jets 45% to 78%■ Penguins■ Jets
 

Biggest swings

  1. 3rd 7:08 — Winnipeg Jets goal (2-1)Winnipeg Jets 44% → 76% (+31 pts)
  2. 3rd 8:53 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (2-2)Pittsburgh Penguins 23% → 55% (+33 pts)
  3. 3rd 9:02 — Winnipeg Jets goal (3-2)Winnipeg Jets 45% → 78% (+33 pts)

Winnipeg Jets won after falling as low as 18% (3rd 4:43).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

47%WPG
Share of G&W replays won
53%PIT
2.6
Expected goals
2.8
3
Final score
2

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Pittsburgh Penguins won 53% of G&W replays (Winnipeg Jets 47%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

JetsGoalsPenguins
2.35-on-5 chancesexpected goals
2.7
0.2Power-play chancesexpected goals
0.1
0.1Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed
0.0
2.6Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result
2.8
0.0Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result
0.2
0.3Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above
0.5
+0.4Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots
-1.0
+1.0Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Clay Stevenson 30/32 · Sergei Murashov 31/34
-0.4
Bar left: Jets gainedBar right: Penguins gained

How the margin was built, from Winnipeg Jets's side:

Chances -0.4Finishing & goaltending +1.4Winnipeg Jets by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Pittsburgh Penguins closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move
OpenPenguins -1.5 (+141)
Jets +1.5 (-178)
ClosePenguins -1.5 (+140)
Jets +1.5 (-170)
Totalno move
Open6.5 (o -100 / u -120)
Close6.5 (o -105 / u -115)
Moneyline
OpenJets +142 40%
Penguins -170 60%
CloseJets +146 39%
Penguins -175 61%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %
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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Jets won 6 and the Penguins 8.

DateScoreLineTotal
Mar 21, 2026Jets 4, Penguins 5 SO
Penguins won		Penguins -162
favorite won		6.5
over
Nov 1, 2025Penguins 2, Jets 5
Jets won		Jets -167
favorite won		6.5
over
Nov 22, 2024Jets 4, Penguins 1
Jets won		Jets -192
favorite won		6
under
Oct 20, 2024Penguins 3, Jets 6
Jets won		Jets -135
favorite won		6.5
over
Feb 10, 2024Penguins 1, Jets 2
Jets won		Jets -153
favorite won		5.5
under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams

Winnipeg Jets

Pittsburgh Penguins

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