Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks Final — October 7, 2026
EDMStarting goaliesANA
EDMOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)ANAEDMDefenseANAEDMTeamANAEDM5-on-5ANAEDMSpecial teamsANAEDMRecent formANAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
EDMRest & travelANAEDMKey injuriesANAAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 7, 8:10 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Oilers (2-0-1) visited the Ducks (2-0-0) on Wednesday, October 7 at 10:00 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Oilers scored 3.44 goals per game (7th of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Ducks scored 3.33 goals per game (10th of 32) and allowed 3.51 (29th). The Oilers earned 56.7% of available standings points (14th) and the Ducks 56.1% (15th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Oilers 51.7% (9th), Ducks 50.5% (15th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Oilers 50.3% (12th), Ducks 52.4% (6th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Oilers 51.0% (14th), Ducks 47.6% (21st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Oilers -135, Ducks +114) prices the Oilers at 55% and the Ducks at 45%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Edmonton Oilers 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Edmonton Oilers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Anaheim Ducks +1.5): Edmonton Oilers covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Edmonton Oilers closed at -135 on the moneyline (a 55% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Anaheim Ducks 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Edmonton Oilers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Edmonton Oilers 55%, Anaheim Ducks 45%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 4:11 — Anaheim Ducks goal (0-1)Anaheim Ducks 46% → 62% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 6:30 — Edmonton Oilers goal (2-2)Edmonton Oilers 34% → 56% (+21 pts)
- 2nd 14:12 — Edmonton Oilers goal (3-2)Edmonton Oilers 53% → 75% (+22 pts)
Edmonton Oilers won after falling as low as 21% (2nd 0:11).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Anaheim Ducks won 70% of G&W replays (Edmonton Oilers 30%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Anaheim Ducks. Here is where that came from.
| Oilers | Goals | Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.3 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.6 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.0 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +2.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.5 |
| +2.5 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Devon Levi 29/31 · Lukas Dostal 12/17, Ville Husso 2/2 | -2.4 |
How the margin was built, from Edmonton Oilers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Edmonton Oilers closed as the market favourite at 55% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Oilers -1.5 (+185)
Oilers -1.5 (+171)
Ducks +110 46%
Ducks +114 45%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 24 times since 2018-19: the Oilers won 16 and the Ducks 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Ducks 2, Oilers 4 Oilers won | ||
| Feb 25, 2026 | Oilers 5, Ducks 6 Ducks won | Oilers -130 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Ducks 4, Oilers 7 Oilers won | Oilers -270 favorite won | 7 over |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Oilers 2, Ducks 3 Ducks won | Oilers -145 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Ducks 6, Oilers 2 Ducks won | Oilers -365 underdog won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Edmonton Oilers
- Edmonton Oilers team stats
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- Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 26)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
Anaheim Ducks
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