Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHL · October 24, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers Final — October 24, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs

6-4-2

Goalie Anthony Stolarz Confirmed

FINAL

Edmonton Oilers

8-1-1

Goalie Tristan Jarry Confirmed

Saturday, October 24 · 7:10 PM ET

TORStarting goaliesEDM

This season

Starts

.897

Sv%

.873

.889

HDSv%

.667

+0.3

GSAx

−2.7

Last season

Starts

.893

Sv%

.882

.871

HDSv%

.845

−5.3

GSAx

−8.5

TOROffense2026-27 regular season to dateEDM

8th3.58

GF/G

4.701st

3rd11.63

PP GF/60

13.322nd

TORDefenseEDM

19th3.25

GA/G

3.2017th

1st0.87

PK GA/60

12.1327th

TORTeamEDM

17th58.3%

Pts%

85.0%1st

19th48.9%

xGF%

47.3%23rd

25th46.5%

CF%

47.6%21st

17th50.0%

HDCF%

55.6%10th

TOR5-on-5EDM

17th2.47

xGF/60

2.2526th

19th2.58

xGA/60

2.5117th

10th10.3%

Sh%

15.3%1st

30th88.1%

Sv%

89.9%19th

12th114.1

CF/60 (both)

107.929th

7th+0.31

GAx/G

+1.541st

13th+0.04

GSAx/G

−0.2418th

8th12.1%

Sh%

17.9%1st

12th89.6%

Sv%

88.3%22nd

TORSpecial teamsEDM

8th8.97

PP xG/60

10.353rd

10th79.5

PP FF/60

92.02nd

12th5.2

PP min/G

5.021st

18th7.74

PK xGA/60

8.8126th

25th5.8

PK min/G

4.02nd

TORRecent formEDM

OTLvs BUF 4-5Lvs NYI 1-4Wvs SJS 3-1W@ CBJ 6-2Wvs NYR 5-4

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ LAK 4-1Lvs UTA 2-4W@ UTA 6-2Wvs MIN 4-3Wvs CAR 6-5

Game by game

6-4-2

Record

8-1-1

3-1-1

Last 5

4-1-0

5-3-2

Last 10

8-1-1

TORHome and roadseason to dateEDM

4-3-1

Home record

3-1-1

2-1-1

Road record

5-0-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TORRest & travelEDM

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,682 mi2,707 km

Travel to the game

Home

−2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

TORKey injuriesEDM

John Tavares CIR

Players out or limited

Frederik Andersen GIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 24, 3:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Maple Leafs (6-4-2) visited the Oilers (8-1-1) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:10 PM ET.

The Maple Leafs score 3.58 goals per game (8th of 32) and allow 3.25 (19th). The Oilers score 4.70 goals per game (1st of 32) and allow 3.20 (17th). The Maple Leafs earn 58.3% of available standings points (17th) and the Oilers 85.0% (1st).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Maple Leafs 48.9% (19th), Oilers 47.3% (23rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Maple Leafs 46.5% (25th), Oilers 47.6% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Maple Leafs 50.0% (17th), Oilers 55.6% (10th).

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maple Leafs +122, Oilers -150) prices the Maple Leafs at 43% and the Oilers at 57%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2

Toronto Maple Leafs won by 5.

Against the closing spread (Edmonton Oilers -1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Toronto Maple Leafs closed at +122 on the moneyline (a 43% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Edmonton Oilers 2

Decided

In regulation

Toronto Maple Leafs won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

43%Market at the close57%

Toronto Maple LeafsEdmonton Oilers

39%Market at the open61%

From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Toronto Maple Leafs.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toronto Maple Leafs 43%, Edmonton Oilers 57%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 14:16 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (1-0)Toronto Maple Leafs 44% → 61% (+17 pts)
2nd 5:29 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (2-0)Toronto Maple Leafs 64% → 80% (+16 pts)
2nd 6:23 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (3-0)Toronto Maple Leafs 81% → 91% (+11 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

52%TOR

Share of G&W replays won

48%EDM

3.0

Expected goals

2.9

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Toronto Maple Leafs won 52% of G&W replays (Edmonton Oilers 48%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Maple Leafs	Goals	Oilers
2.6	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.8
0.1	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.6
0.3	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.5
3.0	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.9
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.1
1.0	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.5
+3.0	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.0
+1.0	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Anthony Stolarz 30/32 · Tristan Jarry 25/31	-3.0
1	Empty-net goals	0

Bar left: Maple Leafs gainedBar right: Oilers gained

How the margin was built, from Toronto Maple Leafs's side:

Chances +0.0Finishing & goaltending +4.0Empty net +1Toronto Maple Leafs by 5

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Edmonton Oilers closed as the market favourite at 57% and lost.

The line moved toward Toronto Maple Leafs before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenOilers -1.5 (+145)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-177)

CloseOilers -1.5 (+152)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-189)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -120 / u -100)

Close6.5 (o -165 / u +130)

Moneyline

OpenMaple Leafs +145 39%
Oilers -175 61%

CloseMaple Leafs +122 43%
Oilers -150 57%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 23 times since 2018-19: the Maple Leafs won 16 and the Oilers 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Feb 3, 2026	Maple Leafs 5, Oilers 2 Maple Leafs won	Oilers -192 underdog won	7 push
Dec 13, 2025	Oilers 6, Maple Leafs 3 Oilers won	Oilers -130 favorite won	6.5 over
Feb 1, 2025	Maple Leafs 4, Oilers 3 Maple Leafs won	Oilers -157 underdog won	6.5 over
Nov 16, 2024	Oilers 3, Maple Leafs 4 OT Maple Leafs won	Oilers -142 underdog won	6 over
Mar 23, 2024	Oilers 3, Maple Leafs 6 Maple Leafs won	Oilers -138 underdog won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams