Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals Final — October 7, 2026
PITStarting goaliesWSH
PITOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)WSHPITDefenseWSHPITTeamWSHPIT5-on-5WSHPITSpecial teamsWSHPITRecent formWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
PITRest & travelWSHPITKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 7, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Penguins (2-1-0) visited the Capitals (1-1-0) on Wednesday, October 7 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Penguins scored 3.57 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allowed 3.27 (24th). The Capitals scored 3.21 goals per game (15th of 32) and allowed 2.98 (10th). The Penguins earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Capitals 57.9% (12th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Penguins 51.7% (8th), Capitals 50.0% (17th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Penguins 50.2% (13th), Capitals 49.4% (15th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Penguins 57.4% (3rd), Capitals 46.9% (22nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penguins +128, Capitals -154) prices the Penguins at 42% and the Capitals at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 5
Washington Capitals won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Capitals -1.5): Washington Capitals covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Washington Capitals closed at -154 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Washington Capitals 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Pittsburgh Penguins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Penguins 42%, Washington Capitals 58%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 0:23 — Washington Capitals goal (0-1)Washington Capitals 58% → 72% (+14 pts)
- 1st 1:19 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (1-1)Pittsburgh Penguins 28% → 42% (+14 pts)
- 1st 11:51 — Washington Capitals goal (1-2)Washington Capitals 57% → 73% (+16 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Washington Capitals won 72% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 28%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Washington Capitals. Here is where that came from.
| Penguins | Goals | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.6 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.3 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 2.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.1 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.3 |
| +0.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.8 |
| -0.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Arturs Silovs 22/27 · Logan Thompson 27/30 | -0.4 |
How the margin was built, from Washington Capitals's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Washington Capitals closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Pittsburgh Penguins before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Penguins +1.5 (-177)
Penguins +1.5 (-190)
Capitals -167 60%
Capitals -154 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 33 times since 2018-19: the Penguins won 18 and the Capitals 15.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Penguins 0, Capitals 3 Capitals won | ||
| Apr 11, 2026 | Capitals 6, Penguins 3 Capitals won | ||
| Nov 6, 2025 | Capitals 3, Penguins 5 Penguins won | Capitals -117 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Capitals 2, Penguins 5 Penguins won | Penguins -115 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Capitals 8, Penguins 3 Capitals won | Capitals -145 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Pittsburgh Penguins team stats
- Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 24)
- Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (Oct 22)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 19)
Washington Capitals
- Washington Capitals team stats
- Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals (Oct 28)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 24)
- Los Angeles Kings 5, Washington Capitals 2 (Oct 20)
- New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 17)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 7, 2026
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