Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets Final — October 7, 2026
COLStarting goaliesWPG
COLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)WPGCOLDefenseWPGCOLTeamWPGCOL5-on-5WPGCOLSpecial teamsWPGCOLRecent formWPGInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
COLRest & travelWPGCOLKey injuriesWPGAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 7, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Avalanche (2-0-0) visited the Jets (2-0-1) on Wednesday, October 7 at 7:30 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Jets scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.17 (22nd). The Avalanche earned 73.8% of available standings points (1st) and the Jets 50.0% (26th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Avalanche 56.6% (1st), Jets 47.5% (25th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Avalanche 56.7% (2nd), Jets 48.8% (22nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Avalanche 54.8% (6th), Jets 44.6% (29th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Avalanche -197, Jets +163) prices the Avalanche at 64% and the Jets at 36%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Colorado Avalanche 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Winnipeg Jets won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Winnipeg Jets +1.5): Winnipeg Jets covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Winnipeg Jets closed at +163 on the moneyline (a 36% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Winnipeg Jets 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Colorado Avalanche.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Colorado Avalanche 64%, Winnipeg Jets 36%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 18:16 — Winnipeg Jets goal (1-2)Winnipeg Jets 41% → 67% (+25 pts)
- 3rd 12:35 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-2)Colorado Avalanche 19% → 56% (+38 pts)
- 3rd 19:00 — Winnipeg Jets goal (2-3)Winnipeg Jets 45% → 94% (+49 pts)
Winnipeg Jets won after falling as low as 22% (2nd 4:01).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 65% of G&W replays (Winnipeg Jets 35%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Colorado Avalanche. Here is where that came from.
| Avalanche | Goals | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.8 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.1 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.9 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.6 |
| -1.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.1 |
| -1.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Mackenzie Blackwood 16/19 · Stuart Skinner 32/34 | +1.0 |
How the margin was built, from Winnipeg Jets's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 64% and lost.
The line moved toward Colorado Avalanche before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Avalanche -1.5 (+130)
Avalanche -1.5 (+125)
Jets +155 38%
Jets +163 36%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Avalanche won 12 and the Jets 14.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Jets 4, Avalanche 2 Jets won | ||
| Mar 26, 2026 | Avalanche 3, Jets 2 Avalanche won | Avalanche -187 favorite won | 6 under |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Avalanche 1, Jets 3 Jets won | Avalanche -192 underdog won | 6 under |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Jets 2, Avalanche 3 Avalanche won | Avalanche -250 favorite won | 6 under |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Jets 3, Avalanche 2 OT Jets won | Avalanche -120 underdog won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Colorado Avalanche
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Winnipeg Jets
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