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NHL · October 16, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Final — October 16, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins

3-3-1

Goalie Arturs Silovs Confirmed

FINAL

Colorado Avalanche

4-2-1

Goalie Mackenzie Blackwood Confirmed

Friday, October 16 · 9:10 PM ET

PITStarting goaliesCOL

This season

Starts

.885

Sv%

.879

.875

HDSv%

.909

+0.2

GSAx

−2.2

Last season

Starts

.888

Sv%

.904

.817

HDSv%

.842

−11.5

GSAx

+6.8

PITOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)COL

3rd3.57

GF/G

3.681st

10th8.50

PP GF/60

5.9130th

PITDefenseCOL

24th3.27

GA/G

2.481st

7th6.78

PK GA/60

5.551st

PITTeamCOL

10th59.8%

Pts%

73.8%1st

8th51.7%

xGF%

56.6%1st

13th50.2%

CF%

56.7%2nd

3rd57.4%

HDCF%

54.8%6th

PIT5-on-5COL

6th2.72

xGF/60

3.022nd

16th2.54

xGA/60

2.326th

2nd11.1%

Sh%

9.8%13th

20th90.1%

Sv%

92.2%1st

11th116.9

CF/60 (both)

122.71st

3rd+0.26

GAx/G

+0.0912th

20th−0.08

GSAx/G

+0.373rd

3rd11.8%

Sh%

10.0%21st

24th89.1%

Sv%

91.4%1st

18th50.8%

xGF% (L20)

57.4%3rd

PITSpecial teamsCOL

12th7.74

PP xG/60

7.0925th

13th80.0

PP FF/60

81.310th

19th4.6

PP min/G

5.41st

4th6.50

PK xGA/60

6.956th

15th4.7

PK min/G

4.820th

PITRecent formCOL

Lvs WPG 2-3L@ WSH 3-5OTL@ CBJ 2-3Wvs DAL 2-1L@ CHI 3-5

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ WPG 2-3W@ CGY 7-3Lvs TOR 3-6W@ DAL 3-2OTLvs DAL 2-3

Game by game

3-3-1

Record

4-2-1

1-3-1

Last 5

2-2-1

4-3

Over–under

4-3

PITHome and roadseason to dateCOL

2-1-0

Home record

2-1-1

1-2-1

Road record

2-1-0

1-2

Home O/U

3-1

Road O/U

1-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

PITRest & travelCOL

3 days

Days of rest

2 days

917 mi1,475 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

PITKey injuriesCOL

Trevor van Riemsdyk DIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 16, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Penguins (3-3-1) visited the Avalanche (4-2-1) on Friday, October 16 at 9:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Penguins scored 3.57 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allowed 3.27 (24th). The Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Penguins earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Avalanche 73.8% (1st).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Penguins 51.7% (8th), Avalanche 56.6% (1st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Penguins 50.2% (13th), Avalanche 56.7% (2nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Penguins 57.4% (3rd), Avalanche 54.8% (6th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penguins +170, Avalanche -209) prices the Penguins at 35% and the Avalanche at 65%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Colorado Avalanche 5

Colorado Avalanche won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Colorado Avalanche -1.5): Colorado Avalanche covered.
Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Colorado Avalanche closed at -209 on the moneyline (a 65% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Colorado Avalanche 5

Decided

In regulation

Colorado Avalanche won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

35%Market at the close65%

Pittsburgh PenguinsColorado Avalanche

32%Market at the open68%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Pittsburgh Penguins.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Penguins 35%, Colorado Avalanche 65%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 11:01 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-1)Colorado Avalanche 31% → 47% (+16 pts)
2nd 0:25 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-2)Colorado Avalanche 44% → 62% (+18 pts)
2nd 4:24 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-3)Colorado Avalanche 62% → 79% (+17 pts)

Colorado Avalanche won after falling as low as 31% (1st 11:01).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

42%PIT

Share of G&W replays won

58%COL

3.5

Expected goals

4.0

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 58% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 42%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Penguins	Goals	Avalanche
3.0	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.9
0.4	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.1
0.1	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
3.5	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	4.1
0.1	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.2
0.9	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.9
-1.5	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.8
-0.8	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Arturs Silovs 27/32 · Mackenzie Blackwood 29/31	+1.5

Bar left: Penguins gainedBar right: Avalanche gained

How the margin was built, from Colorado Avalanche's side:

Chances +0.7Finishing & goaltending +2.3Colorado Avalanche by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 65% and won.

The line moved toward Pittsburgh Penguins before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenAvalanche -1.5 (-100)
Penguins +1.5 (-120)

CloseAvalanche -1.5 (+118)
Penguins +1.5 (-144)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -119 / u -101)

Close6.5 (o -135 / u +110)

Moneyline

OpenPenguins +200 32%
Avalanche -245 68%

ClosePenguins +170 35%
Avalanche -209 65%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Penguins won 7 and the Avalanche 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 24, 2026	Avalanche 6, Penguins 2 Avalanche won	Avalanche -175 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 16, 2026	Penguins 7, Avalanche 2 Penguins won	Avalanche -225 underdog won	6.5 over
Mar 4, 2025	Penguins 1, Avalanche 4 Avalanche won	Avalanche -285 favorite won	6.5 under
Dec 10, 2024	Avalanche 6, Penguins 2 Avalanche won	Avalanche -184 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 24, 2024	Penguins 4, Avalanche 5 OT Avalanche won	Avalanche -255 favorite won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams