Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth

NHL · October 19, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Utah Mammoth Final — October 19, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins

3-5-1

Goalie Arturs Silovs Confirmed

FINAL

Utah Mammoth

6-3-0

Goalie Sebastian Cossa Confirmed

Monday, October 19 · 9:10 PM ET

PITStarting goaliesUTAH

This season

Starts

.875

Sv%

.833

.857

HDSv%

.800

−1.2

GSAx

−1.4

Last season

Starts

—

.888

Sv%

—

.817

HDSv%

—

−11.5

GSAx

—

PITOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)UTAH

3rd3.57

GF/G

3.2713th

10th8.50

PP GF/60

7.4117th

PITDefenseUTAH

24th3.27

GA/G

2.934th

7th6.78

PK GA/60

7.7419th

PITTeamUTAH

10th59.8%

Pts%

56.1%15th

8th51.7%

xGF%

53.4%6th

13th50.2%

CF%

53.1%4th

3rd57.4%

HDCF%

53.0%11th

PIT5-on-5UTAH

6th2.72

xGF/60

2.744th

16th2.54

xGA/60

2.389th

2nd11.1%

Sh%

10.3%7th

20th90.1%

Sv%

90.0%21st

11th116.9

CF/60 (both)

114.521st

3rd+0.26

GAx/G

+0.0715th

20th−0.08

GSAx/G

0.0015th

3rd11.8%

Sh%

11.0%8th

24th89.1%

Sv%

89.3%20th

18th50.8%

xGF% (L20)

51.3%14th

PITSpecial teamsUTAH

12th7.74

PP xG/60

7.2322nd

13th80.0

PP FF/60

74.024th

19th4.6

PP min/G

4.620th

4th6.50

PK xGA/60

7.9920th

15th4.7

PK min/G

5.024th

PITRecent formUTAH

OTL@ CBJ 2-3Wvs DAL 2-1L@ CHI 3-5L@ COL 2-5L@ VGK 2-6

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ BOS 1-6W@ BUF 4-1Wvs TOR 5-4W@ EDM 4-2Lvs EDM 2-6

Game by game

3-5-1

Record

6-3-0

1-3-1

Last 5

3-2-0

6-3

Over–under

5-4

PITHome and roadseason to dateUTAH

2-1-0

Home record

2-1-0

1-4-1

Road record

4-2-0

1-2

Home O/U

2-1

5-1

Road O/U

3-3

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

PITRest & travelUTAH

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

368 mi592 km

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

PITKey injuriesUTAH

Trevor van Riemsdyk DIRSamuel Girard DDay-to-dayEgor Chinakhov RWDay-to-day

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 19, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Penguins (3-5-1) visited the Mammoth (6-3-0) on Monday, October 19 at 9:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Penguins scored 3.57 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allowed 3.27 (24th). The Mammoth scored 3.27 goals per game (13th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Penguins earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Mammoth 56.1% (15th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Penguins 51.7% (8th), Mammoth 53.4% (6th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Penguins 50.2% (13th), Mammoth 53.1% (4th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Penguins 57.4% (3rd), Mammoth 53.0% (11th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penguins +154, Mammoth -185) prices the Penguins at 38% and the Mammoth at 62%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Utah Mammoth 5

Utah Mammoth won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Utah Mammoth -1.5): Pittsburgh Penguins covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Utah Mammoth closed at -185 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Utah Mammoth 5

Decided

In regulation

Utah Mammoth won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

38%Market at the close62%

Pittsburgh PenguinsUtah Mammoth

38%Market at the open62%

The market barely moved from open to close.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Penguins 38%, Utah Mammoth 62%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 6:00 — Utah Mammoth goal (1-1)Utah Mammoth 46% → 62% (+16 pts)
2nd 7:01 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (2-2)Pittsburgh Penguins 25% → 42% (+18 pts)
2nd 11:44 — Utah Mammoth goal (2-3)Utah Mammoth 59% → 79% (+20 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

22%PIT

Share of G&W replays won

78%UTA

1.9

Expected goals

4.1

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Utah Mammoth won 78% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 22%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Utah Mammoth. Here is where that came from.

Penguins	Goals	Mammoth
1.5	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	3.3
0.3	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.1	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
1.9	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	4.1
0.4	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.7
+1.7	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.9
-0.9	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Arturs Silovs 24/29 · Sebastian Cossa 15/19	-1.7

Bar left: Penguins gainedBar right: Mammoth gained

How the margin was built, from Utah Mammoth's side:

Chances +1.9Finishing & goaltending -0.9Utah Mammoth by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Utah Mammoth closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenMammoth -1.5 (+136)
Penguins +1.5 (-165)

CloseMammoth -1.5 (+130)
Penguins +1.5 (-162)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -119 / u -103)

Close6.5 (o -140 / u +114)

Moneyline

OpenPenguins +152 38%
Mammoth -183 62%

ClosePenguins +154 38%
Mammoth -185 62%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Penguins won 11 and the Mammoth 3.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 14, 2026	Penguins 4, Mammoth 3 Penguins won	Mammoth -148 underdog won	6 over
Dec 14, 2025	Mammoth 5, Penguins 4 OT Mammoth won	Mammoth -132 favorite won	6.5 over
Jan 29, 2025	Penguins 3, Mammoth 2 OT Penguins won
Nov 23, 2024	Mammoth 6, Penguins 1 Mammoth won
Jan 22, 2024	Penguins 2, Mammoth 5 Mammoth won

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams