Vancouver Canucks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Final — October 17, 2026
VANStarting goaliesTB
VANOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TBVANDefenseTBVANTeamTBVAN5-on-5TBVANSpecial teamsTBVANRecent formTBVANHome and roadseason to dateTBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
VANRest & travelTBVANKey injuriesTBAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Injury report as of October 17, 12:40 p.m. ET: no key players listed for either team.
The pre-game matchup
The Canucks (2-6-1) visited the Lightning (5-2-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 4:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Canucks scored 2.63 goals per game (30th of 32) and allowed 3.85 (32nd). The Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Canucks earned 35.4% of available standings points (32nd) and the Lightning 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Canucks 44.1% (31st), Lightning 54.2% (5th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Canucks 46.5% (29th), Lightning 53.3% (3rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Canucks 41.8% (32nd), Lightning 57.9% (2nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Canucks +300, Lightning -400) prices the Canucks at 24% and the Lightning at 76%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Tampa Bay Lightning won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Lightning -2.5): Vancouver Canucks covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -400 on the moneyline (a 76% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Vancouver Canucks 24%, Tampa Bay Lightning 76%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 6:30 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (2-1)Tampa Bay Lightning 33% → 53% (+19 pts)
- 2nd 11:23 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (2-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 48% → 70% (+22 pts)
- 3rd 2:04 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (2-3)Tampa Bay Lightning 66% → 87% (+21 pts)
Tampa Bay Lightning won after falling as low as 32% (2nd 4:35).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 76% of G&W replays (Vancouver Canucks 24%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.
| Canucks | Goals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.4 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 1.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.7 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +0.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.3 |
| -0.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Kevin Lankinen 31/35 · Dennis Hildeby 12/14 | -0.2 |
How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 76% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Canucks +1.5 (+112)
Canucks +2.5 (-120)
Lightning -377 76%
Lightning -400 76%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Canucks won 3 and the Lightning 10.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Lightning 6, Canucks 2 Lightning won | Lightning -335 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Canucks 6, Lightning 2 Canucks won | Lightning -155 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Lightning 4, Canucks 2 Lightning won | Lightning -130 favorite won | 6 push |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Canucks 1, Lightning 4 Lightning won | Lightning -135 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Lightning 1, Canucks 4 Canucks won | Canucks -125 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Vancouver Canucks
- Vancouver Canucks team stats
- Vancouver Canucks 6, Anaheim Ducks 5 (Oct 27)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 25)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
Tampa Bay Lightning
More NHL games on October 17, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 17)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (Oct 17)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Florida Panthers 8 (Oct 17)
- Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- New York Rangers 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 17)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 17)
- Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 17)
- New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (Oct 17)
- St Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 5 (Oct 17)
- Boston Bruins 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 17)
- Edmonton Oilers 6, Utah Mammoth 2 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 17)
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