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NHL · October 20, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Final — October 20, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning

6-2-0

Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy Confirmed

FINAL

Vegas Golden Knights

8-2-0

Goalie Carter Hart Confirmed

Tuesday, October 20 · 10:40 PM ET

TBStarting goaliesVGK

This season

Starts

.885

Sv%

.911

.810

HDSv%

.895

−1.1

GSAx

+2.0

Last season

Starts

.912

Sv%

.891

.888

HDSv%

.830

+21.5

GSAx

−4.7

TBOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)VGK

4th3.54

GF/G

3.2314th

16th7.51

PP GF/60

9.643rd

TBDefenseVGK

3rd2.82

GA/G

3.0513th

3rd6.10

PK GA/60

6.858th

TBTeamVGK

5th64.6%

Pts%

57.9%12th

5th54.2%

xGF%

54.5%4th

3rd53.3%

CF%

52.3%7th

2nd57.9%

HDCF%

59.9%1st

TB5-on-5VGK

5th2.73

xGF/60

2.5714th

5th2.30

xGA/60

2.152nd

3rd11.1%

Sh%

9.3%19th

12th90.8%

Sv%

89.0%31st

26th111.8

CF/60 (both)

112.624th

10th+0.13

GAx/G

+0.0417th

12th+0.10

GSAx/G

−0.3731st

4th11.5%

Sh%

10.8%13th

10th90.2%

Sv%

88.4%28th

11th53.0%

xGF% (L20)

57.9%2nd

TBSpecial teamsVGK

13th7.62

PP xG/60

9.292nd

22nd75.7

PP FF/60

83.47th

10th4.8

PP min/G

4.426th

11th7.37

PK xGA/60

5.921st

29th5.1

PK min/G

4.12nd

TBRecent formVGK

Wvs MIN 3-2W@ NYI 5-3L@ NYR 1-4Wvs SEA 4-3Wvs VAN 4-2

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs LAK 2-1L@ MIN 2-4W@ NSH 5-2Wvs CGY 6-2Wvs PIT 6-2

Game by game

6-2-0

Record

8-2-0

4-1-0

Last 5

4-1-0

3-5

Over–under

7-3

—

Last 10

8-2-0

TBHome and roadseason to dateVGK

5-0-0

Home record

5-1-0

1-2-0

Road record

3-1-0

1-4

Home O/U

5-1

2-1

Road O/U

2-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TBRest & travelVGK

3 days

Days of rest

3 days

1,988 mi3,199 km

Travel to the game

Home

−3 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

TBKey injuriesVGK

None listed

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Injury report as of October 20, 9:40 p.m. ET: no key players listed for either team.

The pre-game matchup

The Lightning (6-2-0) visited the Golden Knights (8-2-0) on Tuesday, October 20 at 10:40 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Golden Knights scored 3.23 goals per game (14th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Lightning earned 64.6% of available standings points (5th) and the Golden Knights 57.9% (12th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Lightning 54.2% (5th), Golden Knights 54.5% (4th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Lightning 53.3% (3rd), Golden Knights 52.3% (7th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Lightning 57.9% (2nd), Golden Knights 59.9% (1st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lightning -110, Golden Knights -110) prices the Lightning at 50% and the Golden Knights at 50%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 2

Tampa Bay Lightning won by 4.

Against the closing spread (Vegas Golden Knights -1.5): Tampa Bay Lightning covered.
Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Vegas Golden Knights 2

Decided

In regulation

Tampa Bay Lightning won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

50%Market at the close50%

Tampa Bay LightningVegas Golden Knights

48%Market at the open52%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Tampa Bay Lightning.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Lightning 50%, Vegas Golden Knights 50%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 14:04 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (2-1)Tampa Bay Lightning 50% → 67% (+17 pts)
1st 18:30 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (2-2)Vegas Golden Knights 32% → 49% (+17 pts)
2nd 6:44 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (3-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 50% → 70% (+20 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

43%TBL

Share of G&W replays won

57%VGK

2.8

Expected goals

3.3

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Vegas Golden Knights won 57% of G&W replays (Tampa Bay Lightning 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Lightning	Goals	Golden Knights
2.0	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.1
0.5	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.7
0.3	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.5
2.8	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.3
0.1	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.8
+3.2	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.3
+1.3	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Andrei Vasilevskiy 32/34 · Carter Hart 15/21	-3.2

Bar left: Lightning gainedBar right: Golden Knights gained

How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:

Chances -0.5Finishing & goaltending +4.5Tampa Bay Lightning by 4

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 -1201.00uLOSS -1.20u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Vegas Golden Knights closed as the market favourite at 50% and lost.

The line moved toward Tampa Bay Lightning before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenGolden Knights -1.5 (+194)
Lightning +1.5 (-245)

CloseGolden Knights -1.5 (+215)
Lightning +1.5 (-278)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +110 / u -134)

Close6.5 (o +105 / u -130)

Moneyline

OpenLightning -102 48%
Golden Knights -116 52%

CloseLightning -110 50%
Golden Knights -110 50%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Lightning won 8 and the Golden Knights 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 6, 2025	Lightning 6, Golden Knights 3 Lightning won	Golden Knights -122 underdog won	6 over
Oct 26, 2025	Golden Knights 1, Lightning 2 OT Lightning won	Lightning -137 favorite won	6 under
Mar 23, 2025	Lightning 2, Golden Knights 4 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -120 favorite won	6 push
Oct 17, 2024	Golden Knights 3, Lightning 4 Lightning won	Lightning -150 favorite won	6 over
Mar 19, 2024	Lightning 5, Golden Knights 3 Lightning won	Golden Knights -136 underdog won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams