Minnesota Wild vs Washington Capitals Final — November 1, 2026
MINStarting goaliesWSH
MINOffense2026-27 regular season to dateWSHMINDefenseWSHMINTeamWSHMIN5-on-5WSHMINSpecial teamsWSHMINRecent formWSHMINHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelWSHMINKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of November 1, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Wild (9-3-3) visited the Capitals (8-4-0) on Sunday, November 1 at 3:40 PM ET.
The Wild score 3.13 goals per game (19th of 32) and allow 2.33 (2nd). The Capitals score 3.58 goals per game (9th of 32) and allow 3.08 (15th). The Wild earn 70.0% of available standings points (4th) and the Capitals 66.7% (7th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Wild 54.5% (8th), Capitals 49.9% (18th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Wild 53.3% (8th), Capitals 48.3% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Wild 55.6% (11th), Capitals 33.3% (30th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wild -118, Capitals +100) prices the Wild at 52% and the Capitals at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Wild 5, Washington Capitals 1
Minnesota Wild won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Capitals +1.5): Minnesota Wild covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Minnesota Wild closed at -118 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Washington Capitals 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Minnesota Wild.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Wild 52%, Washington Capitals 48%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 3:42 — Minnesota Wild goal (1-0)Minnesota Wild 52% → 67% (+15 pts)
- 1st 5:27 — Minnesota Wild goal (2-0)Minnesota Wild 67% → 80% (+13 pts)
- 2nd 19:54 — Washington Capitals goal (2-1)Washington Capitals 9% → 24% (+15 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Washington Capitals won 54% of G&W replays (Minnesota Wild 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Wild | Goals | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.7 |
| 0.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.6 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.4 |
| +1.5 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.3 |
| +2.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jesper Wallstedt 26/27 · Logan Thompson 24/28 | -1.5 |
| 1 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from Minnesota Wild's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Minnesota Wild closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Minnesota Wild before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wild +1.5 (-267)
Wild -1.5 (+200)
Capitals -110 50%
Capitals +100 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Wild won 9 and the Capitals 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | Capitals 0, Wild 5 Wild won | Wild -115 favorite won | 6 under |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Wild 1, Capitals 5 Capitals won | Capitals -129 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Capitals 2, Wild 4 Wild won | Capitals -141 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 2, 2025 | Wild 4, Capitals 3 SO Wild won | Capitals -170 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Capitals 3, Wild 5 Wild won | Wild -161 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Wild
- Minnesota Wild team stats
- Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Nov 3)
- New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (Oct 29)
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
Washington Capitals
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