New York Islanders vs Minnesota Wild Final — October 29, 2026
NYIStarting goaliesMIN
NYIOffense2026-27 regular season to dateMINNYIDefenseMINNYITeamMINNYI5-on-5MINNYISpecial teamsMINNYIRecent formMINNYIHome and roadseason to dateMINInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYIRest & travelMINNYIKey injuriesMINAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 29, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Islanders (6-4-2) visited the Wild (9-3-2) on Thursday, October 29 at 8:10 PM ET.
The Islanders score 3.00 goals per game (18th of 32) and allow 2.67 (5th). The Wild score 3.14 goals per game (14th of 32) and allow 2.21 (3rd). The Islanders earn 58.3% of available standings points (15th) and the Wild 71.4% (4th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Islanders 49.7% (18th), Wild 55.4% (6th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Islanders 51.1% (15th), Wild 53.8% (8th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Islanders 52.5% (14th), Wild 56.6% (11th).
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Islanders +170, Wild -205) prices the Islanders at 36% and the Wild at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3
New York Islanders won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Wild -1.5): New York Islanders covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- New York Islanders closed at +170 on the moneyline (a 36% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Minnesota Wild 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Minnesota Wild.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Islanders 36%, Minnesota Wild 64%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 7:14 — New York Islanders goal (3-2)New York Islanders 42% → 74% (+32 pts)
- 3rd 16:07 — Minnesota Wild goal (3-3)Minnesota Wild 13% → 56% (+43 pts)
- OT 0:33 — New York Islanders goal (4-3)New York Islanders 45% → 100% (+55 pts)
New York Islanders won after falling as low as 20% (1st 7:14).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, New York Islanders won 57% of G&W replays (Minnesota Wild 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Islanders | Goals | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.3 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.8 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.1 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| +1.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.8 |
| -0.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ilya Sorokin 22/25 · Jesper Wallstedt 22/26 | -1.4 |
How the margin was built, from New York Islanders's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Minnesota Wild closed as the market favourite at 64% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Islanders +1.5 (-143)
Islanders +1.5 (-157)
Wild -199 64%
Wild -205 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Islanders won 5 and the Wild 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Islanders 4, Wild 3 OT Islanders won | Wild -156 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Wild 5, Islanders 2 Wild won | Islanders -160 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Wild 1, Islanders 3 Islanders won | Islanders -125 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Islanders 3, Wild 6 Wild won | Wild -150 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 15, 2024 | Islanders 0, Wild 5 Wild won | Wild -115 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Islanders
- New York Islanders team stats
- Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders (Nov 5)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Islanders 0 (Oct 31)
- New York Islanders 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
Minnesota Wild
More NHL games on October 29, 2026
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