Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals Final — November 3, 2026
DALStarting goaliesWSH
DALOffense2026-27 regular season to dateWSHDALDefenseWSHDALTeamWSHDAL5-on-5WSHDALSpecial teamsWSHDALRecent formWSHDALHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelWSHDALKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of November 3, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Stars (8-5-1) visited the Capitals (8-5-0) on Tuesday, November 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Stars score 2.71 goals per game (26th of 32) and allow 2.21 (1st). The Capitals score 3.38 goals per game (13th of 32) and allow 3.23 (16th). The Stars earn 60.7% of available standings points (11th) and the Capitals 61.5% (10th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Stars 52.9% (10th), Capitals 50.9% (15th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Stars 51.1% (14th), Capitals 49.0% (18th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Stars 53.8% (12th), Capitals 38.5% (27th).
The total closed at 5.5, down from 6.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Stars -105, Capitals -114) prices the Stars at 49% and the Capitals at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Stars 6, Washington Capitals 5
Dallas Stars won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Capitals -1.5): Dallas Stars covered.
- Combined score 11 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Dallas Stars closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Washington Capitals 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Washington Capitals.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Stars 49%, Washington Capitals 51%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 8:56 — Dallas Stars goal (1-0)Dallas Stars 49% → 65% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 0:23 — Dallas Stars goal (2-0)Dallas Stars 68% → 83% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 3:18 — Dallas Stars goal (3-0)Dallas Stars 83% → 92% (+10 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 65% of G&W replays (Washington Capitals 35%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Dallas Stars. Here is where that came from.
| Stars | Goals | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 0.5 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 3.1 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.1 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.0 |
| +2.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.8 |
| -2.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jake Oettinger 20/25 · Charlie Lindgren 9/11, Logan Thompson 7/11 | -2.9 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Washington Capitals closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Stars +1.5 (-252)
Stars +1.5 (-285)
Capitals -111 50%
Capitals -114 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Stars won 11 and the Capitals 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Stars 4, Capitals 1 Stars won | Capitals -122 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Capitals 0, Stars 1 Stars won | Stars -125 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Capitals 1, Stars 3 Stars won | Stars -160 favorite won | 6 under |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Stars 2, Capitals 3 Capitals won | Stars -155 underdog won | 6 under |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Capitals 4, Stars 5 OT Stars won | Stars -241 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars team stats
- Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets (Nov 5)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 31)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 29)
- New Jersey Devils 5, Dallas Stars 1 (Oct 27)
Washington Capitals
- Washington Capitals team stats
- Minnesota Wild 5, Washington Capitals 1 (Nov 1)
- Washington Capitals 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 29)
- Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 5 (Oct 28)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on November 3, 2026
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- Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Nov 3)
- Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Nov 3)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Nov 3)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (Nov 3)
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