Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Final — October 11, 2026
BALStarting quarterbacksexpected startersATL
BALOffense2026 regular season to dateATLBALDefenseATLBALRecent formATLBALHome and roadseason to dateATLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BALRest & travelATLBALKey injuriesATLAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Ravens (3-1) visited the Falcons (2-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 5.
The Ravens have the 3rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 11th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the 18th-ranked offense and the 8th-ranked defense. When the Ravens have the ball, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.186 EPA per play) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.057 allowed); when the Falcons have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.024) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.016 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ravens offense is at 51.7% (2nd) and the Falcons offense at 49.4% (5th). Through the air, the Ravens average +0.351 EPA per dropback (2nd) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 11th; the Falcons average −0.198 (30th) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 8th. The Ravens score 29.0 points per game (7th) and allow 24.0 (19th); the Falcons score 24.0 (15th) and allow 23.0 (15th).
Tyler Huntley has a 63.6% success rate (1st of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 60.9% (2nd). Per dropback, Huntley is at +0.083 EPA to Jr.'s +0.415, with 0 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Jr.'s 2 and 1. Tyler Huntley is in line to start in place of Lamar Jackson, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Ravens are 3-1 and 1-3 against the spread; their last game was a 24-18 win over the Titans. The Falcons are 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 45-24 win over the Saints.
The Falcons closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Ravens. The spread opened with Ravens favored by 2.5. The total closed at 43.5, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ravens +145, Falcons -175) prices the Ravens at 39% and the Falcons at 61%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23
Baltimore Ravens won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Atlanta Falcons -3.5): Baltimore Ravens covered.
- Combined score 53 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
- Baltimore Ravens closed at +145 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 17 points toward Atlanta Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Baltimore Ravens 39%, Atlanta Falcons 61%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:14 — Baltimore Ravens ball, 2nd & 19 at BAL 25(Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Atlanta Falcons 56% → 71% (+15 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:44 — Baltimore Ravens ball, 1st & 7 at ATL 7(Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 81-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Baltimore Ravens 15% → 42% (+26 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:27 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 1st & 10 at ATL 41(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-64-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-9-M.Penix was injured during the play.Baltimore Ravens 34% → 48% (+14 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 6:19 — Baltimore Ravens ball, 3rd & 6 at ATL 47(Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 41 for 6 yards (0-D.Deablo).Baltimore Ravens 60% → 75% (+15 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 2:11 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 1st & 10 at ATL 48(Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London).Baltimore Ravens 81% → 100% (+19 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Baltimore Ravens won after falling as low as 4% (Q4 2:38).
Game DNA
| Ravens | Points added | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 | Passingdropbacks | -5.2 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.6 |
| +14.7 | Explosive plays10 plays · 9 plays | +18.3 |
| -7.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -2.7 |
| +5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.7 |
| +0.5 | Penalties5 for 40 yds · 7 for 67 yds | -0.6 |
| +4.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 1 of 3 | -4.3 |
| +8.3 | All plays | +0.7 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 8.7 points to Baltimore Ravens. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Atlanta Falcons closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
The line moved toward Atlanta Falcons before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ravens -2.5 (-111)
Ravens +3.5 (-123)
Falcons +120 44%
Falcons -175 61%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Zay Flowers has 352 receiving yards for the Ravens (8th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 30.1%. Derrick Henry has 374 rushing yards on 89 carries (4th of 46 qualified running backs). Drake London has 370 receiving yards for the Falcons (7th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.9%. Bijan Robinson has 494 rushing yards on 85 carries (2nd of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries89
- Rush yards3744th
- Yards per carry4.220th
- EPA per rush−0.05021st
- Rush success rate44.9%14th
- Targets / catches22 / 18
- Receiving yards3528th
- Target share30.1%4th
- Yards per target16.01st
- EPA per target+1.0904th
- Targets / catches24 / 18
- Receiving yards14916th
- Target share23.5%5th
- Yards per target6.222nd
- EPA per target+0.30113th
- Carries85
- Rush yards4942nd
- Yards per carry5.83rd
- EPA per rush+0.1322nd
- Rush success rate54.1%2nd
- Targets / catches25 / 20
- Receiving yards3707th
- Target share26.9%13th
- Yards per target14.83rd
- EPA per target+0.9257th
- Targets / catches9 / 5
- Receiving yards67
- Target share9.7%
- Yards per target7.4
- EPA per target−0.673
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Ravens | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRavens offense vs Falcons defense | 55.7%1st | 36.2%3rd |
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs Ravens defense | 42.6%13th | 51.3%4th |
| Early-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Falcons defense | +0.2891st | −0.0973rd |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Ravens defense | −0.0814th | +0.02116th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRavens offense vs Falcons defense | 33.3%26th | 37.5%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs Ravens defense | 37.5%11th | 37.2%18th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Falcons defense | −0.12221st | −0.02618th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Ravens defense | +0.09523rd | −0.21326th |
| Red-zone TD rateRavens offense vs Falcons defense | 73.3%8th | 56.2%9th |
| Red-zone TD rateFalcons offense vs Ravens defense | 60.0%13th | 80.0%3rd |
| Red-zone success rateRavens offense vs Falcons defense | 48.8%7th | 38.5%11th |
| Red-zone success rateFalcons offense vs Ravens defense | 44.7%19th | 63.0%1st |
On early downs the Ravens succeed on 55.7% of plays (1st) against a Falcons defense that allows 36.2% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (26th) against a defense allowing 37.5% (11th). On early downs the Falcons succeed on 51.3% of plays (4th) against a Ravens defense that allows 42.6% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 37.2% (18th) against a defense allowing 37.5% (11th). The Ravens score touchdowns on 73.3% of red-zone trips (8th). The Falcons score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (3rd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Ravens | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jesse Minter | Kevin Stefanski |
| Offensive coordinator | Declan Doyle | Tommy Rees |
| Defensive coordinator | Anthony Weaver | Jeff Ulbrich |
| Offense tendencies | Ravens | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −5.9%26th-highest | −11.0%32nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 52.2%29th-highest | 46.1%32nd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 47.9%28th-highest | 40.1%32nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 55.2%21st-highest | 49.2%29th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 3.4%25th-highest | 3.3%26th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 36.12nd-slowest | 34.17th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 24.6%1st | 17.5%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 12.3%2nd | 10.7%7th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 11.7%7th | 10.7%9th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 5.8%17th | 7.1%22nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 0.86%9th | 3.29%29th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 58.023rd-most | 60.517th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Defense | Ravens | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 4.5%24th | 3.7%27th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 12.9%9th | 13.3%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.8%16th | 8.3%13th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 10.0%20th | 3.1%2nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 2.02%15th | 1.19%25th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.9%14th | 18.7%7th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 10.7%3rd | 11.7%4th |
The Ravens run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−5.9% pass rate over expected, 26th-highest), while the Falcons sit at −11.0% (32nd-highest). In neutral situations the Ravens take 36.1 seconds between snaps and the Falcons 34.1, so the Falcons play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Ravens have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Falcons 1 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Ravens won 2 and the Falcons 0. In the most recent meeting (December 24, 2022), the Ravens won 17-9; the Falcons averaged −0.149 EPA per play; the Ravens averaged +0.013 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24, 2022 | Falcons 9, Ravens 17 Ravens won | Ravens -6.5 Ravens covered | 35 under | Falcons −0.149 · Ravens +0.013 |
| Dec 2, 2018 | Ravens 26, Falcons 16 Ravens won | Falcons -2.5 Ravens covered | 46.5 under | Falcons −0.497 · Ravens −0.101 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Baltimore Ravens
- Baltimore Ravens team stats
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
Atlanta Falcons
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
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