Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Final — October 11, 2026
MINStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNO
MINOffense2026 regular season to dateNOMINDefenseNOMINRecent formNOMINHome and roadseason to dateNOInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelNOMINKey injuriesNOAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Vikings (4-0) visited the Saints (1-3) at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Vikings have the 27th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 1st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have the 15th-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense. When the Vikings have the ball, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.098 EPA per play) meets a 30th-ranked defense (+0.146 allowed); when the Saints have it, a 15th-ranked offense (−0.010) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.184 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Vikings offense is at 33.3% (32nd) and the Saints offense at 44.3% (14th). Through the air, the Vikings average −0.066 EPA per dropback (24th) against a Saints pass defense ranked 26th; the Saints average +0.022 (20th) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 1st. The Vikings score 21.5 points per game (18th) and allow 12.8 (1st); the Saints score 26.2 (10th) and allow 32.0 (32nd).
Tyler Shough has a 47.1% success rate (16th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Kyler Murray's 31.8% (32nd). Per dropback, Shough is at +0.027 EPA to Murray's −0.158, with 9 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Murray's 1 and 2.
The Vikings are 4-0 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 15-10 win over the Dolphins. The Saints are 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 45-24 loss to the Falcons.
The Vikings closed as 2.5-point road favorites, with the Saints getting the points at home. The spread opened at Vikings -1.5. The total closed at 41.5, down from 42 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Vikings -137, Saints +114) prices the Vikings at 55% and the Saints at 45%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13
Minnesota Vikings won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (New Orleans Saints +2.5): Minnesota Vikings covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 41.5: Under.
- Minnesota Vikings closed at -137 on the moneyline (a 55% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Minnesota Vikings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Vikings 55%, New Orleans Saints 45%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 0:50 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 1 at NO 10(Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 7 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (97-K.Boyd), RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at NO 7. 99-C.Young to NO 34 for 27 yards (13-T.Felton).New Orleans Saints 29% → 44% (+15 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:03 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 4th & 7 at NO 3616-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.Minnesota Vikings 40% → 48% (+8 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:06 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 10 at NO 37(Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end ran ob at NO 19 for 18 yards (7-J.Sanker).Minnesota Vikings 55% → 65% (+9 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:13 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 6 at NO 15(Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Minnesota Vikings 61% → 74% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 2:49 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 15 at NO 19(Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New Orleans Saints 16% → 42% (+26 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
Minnesota Vikings won after falling as low as 35% (Q2 6:07).
Game DNA
| Vikings | Points added | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| +0.3 | Passingdropbacks | -6.0 |
| -5.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.9 |
| +12.3 | Explosive plays8 plays · 1 plays | +0.9 |
| -17.7 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -12.2 |
| +2.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.9 |
| -4.7 | Penalties4 for 30 yds · 6 for 41 yds | -3.3 |
| +3.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 1 | +1.7 |
| -9.2 | All plays | -25.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.4 points to Minnesota Vikings. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Minnesota Vikings closed as the market favourite at 55% and won.
The line moved toward Minnesota Vikings before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Vikings -1.5 (-110)
Vikings -2.5 (-110)
Saints +105 47%
Saints +114 45%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Jordan Addison has 163 receiving yards for the Vikings (53rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.0%. Aaron Jones has 297 rushing yards on 72 carries (11th of 46 qualified running backs). Chris Olave has 491 receiving yards for the Saints (2nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.1%. Travis Etienne has 128 rushing yards on 30 carries (34th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries72
- Rush yards29711th
- Yards per carry4.122nd
- EPA per rush−0.07926th
- Rush success rate34.7%34th
- Targets / catches22 / 11
- Receiving yards16353rd
- Target share22.0%28th
- Yards per target7.456th
- EPA per target−0.10277th
- Targets / catches26 / 22
- Receiving yards1959th
- Target share26.0%4th
- Yards per target7.513th
- EPA per target+0.6344th
- Carries30
- Rush yards12834th
- Yards per carry4.318th
- EPA per rush−0.03920th
- Rush success rate46.7%8th
- Targets / catches48 / 35
- Receiving yards4912nd
- Target share28.1%10th
- Yards per target10.223rd
- EPA per target+0.73015th
- Targets / catches27 / 21
- Receiving yards2325th
- Target share15.8%18th
- Yards per target8.68th
- EPA per target+0.4459th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Vikings | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Saints defense | 29.4%32nd | 53.2%32nd |
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Vikings defense | 35.0%2nd | 40.8%24th |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Saints defense | −0.14031st | +0.18031st |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Vikings defense | −0.0775th | −0.05624th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Saints defense | 35.0%23rd | 47.6%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Vikings defense | 22.6%1st | 50.0%5th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Saints defense | −0.09118th | +0.03520th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Vikings defense | −0.3983rd | −0.05913th |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Saints defense | 44.4%27th | 66.7%20th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Vikings defense | 18.2%1st | 75.0%6th |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Saints defense | 31.8%30th | 43.4%17th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Vikings defense | 18.2%1st | 55.6%3rd |
On early downs the Vikings succeed on 29.4% of plays (32nd) against a Saints defense that allows 53.2% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 35.0% (23rd) against a defense allowing 47.6% (26th). On early downs the Saints succeed on 40.8% of plays (24th) against a Vikings defense that allows 35.0% (2nd); on 3rd down they convert 50.0% (5th) against a defense allowing 22.6% (1st). The Vikings score touchdowns on 44.4% of red-zone trips (27th). The Saints score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (6th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Vikings | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin O'Connell | Kellen Moore |
| Offensive coordinator | Wes Phillips | Doug Nussmeier |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Flores | Brandon Staley |
| Offense tendencies | Vikings | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −4.8%25th-highest | 1.3%9th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 56.4%25th-highest | 68.0%4th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 45.3%30th-highest | 64.7%2nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 61.4%15th-highest | 69.9%3rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 6.0%15th-highest | 15.6%1st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 32.817th-slowest | 29.631st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 14.4%19th | 15.7%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 7.6%25th | 8.6%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 6.9%23rd | 4.4%32nd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 9.8%31st | 6.1%18th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 0.85%8th | 2.75%25th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 58.221st-most | 72.22nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
| Defense | Vikings | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 10.5%1st | 5.8%18th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 14.6%14th | 16.4%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.8%15th | 8.6%14th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.6%17th | 12.3%30th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 2.95%5th | 0.82%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 25.5%1st | 14.7%19th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.0%14th | 16.2%16th |
The Vikings run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.8% pass rate over expected, 25th-highest), while the Saints sit at 1.3% (9th-highest). In neutral situations the Vikings take 32.8 seconds between snaps and the Saints 29.6, so the Saints play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Vikings have gone for it 3 of 3 times and the Saints 4 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Vikings won 5 and the Saints 2. In the most recent meeting (November 12, 2023), the Vikings won 27-19; the Vikings averaged +0.100 EPA per play; the Saints averaged −0.049 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2023 | Saints 19, Vikings 27 Vikings won | Saints -3 Vikings covered | 41 over | Vikings +0.100 · Saints −0.049 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Vikings 28, Saints 25 Vikings won | Vikings -4 Saints covered | 42 over | Vikings −0.016 · Saints +0.176 |
| Dec 25, 2020 | Vikings 33, Saints 52 Saints won | Saints -6.5 Saints covered | 49 over | Vikings +0.161 · Saints +0.405 |
| Jan 5, 2020 playoffs | Vikings 26, Saints 20 Vikings won | Saints -7.5 Vikings covered | 50 under | Vikings +0.012 · Saints −0.123 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Saints 30, Vikings 20 Saints won | Saints -2.5 Saints covered | 53.5 under | Vikings −0.143 · Saints +0.006 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
New Orleans Saints
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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