Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Final — October 18, 2026
CHIStarting quarterbacksexpected startersATL
CHIOffense2026 regular season to dateATLCHIDefenseATLCHIRecent formATLCHIHome and roadseason to dateATLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CHIRest & travelATLCHIKey injuriesATLAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bears (3-2) visited the Falcons (2-3) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Bears have the 12th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 20th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the 19th-ranked offense and the 12th-ranked defense. When the Bears have the ball, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.023 EPA per play) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.035 allowed); when the Falcons have it, a 19th-ranked offense (−0.023) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.015 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bears offense is at 46.1% (11th) and the Falcons offense at 46.3% (10th). Through the air, the Bears average +0.057 EPA per dropback (18th) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 10th; the Falcons average −0.117 (27th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 19th. The Bears score 23.8 points per game (13th) and allow 19.2 (5th); the Falcons score 23.8 (13th) and allow 24.4 (21st).
Michael Penix Jr. has a 51.8% success rate (4th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Tyson Bagent's 50.7% (7th). Per dropback, Jr. is at +0.302 EPA to Bagent's −0.072, with 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Bagent's 0 and 3.
The Bears are 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 31-7 loss to the Packers. The Falcons are 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 30-23 loss to the Ravens.
The Bears closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Falcons getting the points at home. The spread opened at Bears -3. The total closed at 51.5, up from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bears -117, Falcons -102) prices the Bears at 52% and the Falcons at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23
Chicago Bears won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Atlanta Falcons +1.5): Chicago Bears covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 51.5: Over.
- Chicago Bears closed at -117 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 9 points toward Atlanta Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Chicago Bears 52%, Atlanta Falcons 48%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:24 — Chicago Bears ball, 3rd & 11 at ATL 42(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (56-H.Perkins).Chicago Bears 52% → 58% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 8:25 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 13 at ATL 14(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Chicago Bears 58% → 65% (+7 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:15 — Chicago Bears ball, 3rd & 17 at CHI 34(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 43 for 23 yards (21-M.Hughes).Chicago Bears 67% → 75% (+7 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:49 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 3rd & 8 at CHI 13(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Atlanta Falcons 19% → 26% (+7 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:52 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 1 at CHI 4019-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 17-Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.Chicago Bears 73% → 83% (+10 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Bears | Points added | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3 | Passingdropbacks | -25.1 |
| -8.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.1 |
| +8.7 | Explosive plays7 plays · 6 plays | +9.8 |
| -0.5 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.6 |
| -2.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| -2.5 | Penalties12 for 133 yds · 4 for 31 yds | +5.1 |
| +9.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 3 of 3 | +8.1 |
| +3.3 | All plays | -14.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 23.8 points to Chicago Bears. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Chicago Bears closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Atlanta Falcons before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bears -3 (-106)
Bears -1.5 (-106)
Falcons +142 40%
Falcons -102 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Luther Burden III has 266 receiving yards for the Bears (25th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.7%. D'Andre Swift has 354 rushing yards on 78 carries (10th of 41 qualified running backs). Drake London has 488 receiving yards for the Falcons (4th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.3%. Bijan Robinson has 580 rushing yards on 102 carries (1st of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries78
- Rush yards35410th
- Yards per carry4.514th
- EPA per rush−0.04521st
- Rush success rate46.2%7th
- Targets / catches35 / 23
- Receiving yards26625th
- Target share21.7%28th
- Yards per target7.650th
- EPA per target−0.04472nd
- Targets / catches23 / 13
- Receiving yards11029th
- Target share14.3%23rd
- Yards per target4.835th
- EPA per target−0.39034th
- Carries102
- Rush yards5801st
- Yards per carry5.73rd
- EPA per rush+0.0925th
- Rush success rate50.0%2nd
- Targets / catches36 / 27
- Receiving yards4884th
- Target share28.3%7th
- Yards per target13.62nd
- EPA per target+0.8505th
- Targets / catches15 / 10
- Receiving yards10930th
- Target share11.8%28th
- Yards per target7.318th
- EPA per target−0.02427th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bears | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Falcons defense | 45.8%9th | 38.2%4th |
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs Bears defense | 45.4%23rd | 46.9%7th |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Falcons defense | +0.00616th | −0.0756th |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Bears defense | +0.13729th | −0.02620th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Falcons defense | 44.3%10th | 41.4%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs Bears defense | 26.0%2nd | 41.7%11th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Falcons defense | +0.1248th | +0.02120th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Bears defense | −0.4014th | +0.04311th |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Falcons defense | 42.9%32nd | 60.0%15th |
| Red-zone TD rateFalcons offense vs Bears defense | 63.6%18th | 69.2%7th |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Falcons defense | 41.7%18th | 44.4%20th |
| Red-zone success rateFalcons offense vs Bears defense | 54.8%31st | 50.0%4th |
On early downs the Bears succeed on 45.8% of plays (9th) against a Falcons defense that allows 38.2% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 44.3% (10th) against a defense allowing 41.4% (18th). On early downs the Falcons succeed on 46.9% of plays (7th) against a Bears defense that allows 45.4% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 41.7% (11th) against a defense allowing 26.0% (2nd). The Bears score touchdowns on 42.9% of red-zone trips (32nd). The Falcons score touchdowns on 69.2% of red-zone trips (7th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bears | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ben Johnson | Kevin Stefanski |
| Offensive coordinator | Press Taylor | Tommy Rees |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennis Allen | Jeff Ulbrich |
| Offense tendencies | Bears | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −2.7%17th-highest | −9.1%30th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 54.7%30th-highest | 49.5%32nd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 50.2%27th-highest | 42.0%32nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 53.9%26th-highest | 49.3%29th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 6.4%13th-highest | 2.9%27th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.224th-slowest | 34.37th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 14.0%22nd | 17.9%10th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 9.1%15th | 10.7%5th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 10.5%10th | 10.3%12th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.6%13th | 7.2%26th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 2.78%24th | 2.93%26th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 72.01st-most | 61.216th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 5 |
| Defense | Bears | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 7.9%7th | 4.9%23rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 20.3%31st | 13.1%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 12.3%31st | 7.5%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 10.2%21st | 8.3%10th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 2.00%17th | 1.23%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.3%10th | 18.7%6th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.7%7th | 12.6%3rd |
The Bears run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.7% pass rate over expected, 17th-highest), while the Falcons sit at −9.1% (30th-highest). In neutral situations the Bears take 32.2 seconds between snaps and the Falcons 34.3, so the Bears play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bears have gone for it 8 of 9 times and the Falcons 2 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Bears won 2 and the Falcons 2. In the most recent meeting (December 31, 2023), the Bears won 37-17; the Falcons averaged −0.073 EPA per play; the Bears averaged +0.127 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | Falcons 17, Bears 37 Bears won | Bears -3 Bears covered | 39 over | Falcons −0.073 · Bears +0.127 |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Bears 24, Falcons 27 Falcons won | Falcons -3 push | 48.5 over | Falcons −0.013 · Bears +0.026 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Bears 30, Falcons 26 Bears won | Falcons -2.5 Bears covered | 46 over | Falcons −0.030 · Bears +0.027 |
| Sep 10, 2017 | Falcons 23, Bears 17 Falcons won | Falcons -6.5 Bears covered | 48 under | Falcons +0.237 · Bears +0.014 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
Atlanta Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons team stats
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nov 1)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
- Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 (Oct 5)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results