New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants Final — October 18, 2026
NOStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNYG
NOOffense2026 regular season to dateNYGNODefenseNYGNORecent formNYGNOHome and roadseason to dateNYGInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NORest & travelNYGNOKey injuriesNYGAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Saints (1-4) visited the Giants (3-1-1) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Saints have the 23rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 26th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Giants have the 17th-ranked offense and the 22nd-ranked defense. When the Saints have the ball, a 23rd-ranked offense (−0.054 EPA per play) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (+0.036 allowed); when the Giants have it, a 17th-ranked offense (−0.019) meets a 26th-ranked defense (+0.094 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Saints offense is at 43.1% (15th) and the Giants offense at 42.1% (20th). Through the air, the Saints average −0.034 EPA per dropback (22nd) against a Giants pass defense ranked 21st; the Giants average +0.098 (15th) against a Saints pass defense ranked 26th. The Saints score 23.6 points per game (16th) and allow 30.2 (31st); the Giants score 21.8 (21st) and allow 21.2 (9th).
Tyler Shough has a 46.1% success rate (18th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jameis Winston's 42.0% (27th). Per dropback, Shough is at −0.029 EPA to Winston's −0.011, with 9 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Winston's 6 and 3.
The Saints are 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 23-13 loss to the Vikings. The Giants are 3-1-1 and 4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
The Saints closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Giants getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 46.5, up from 45 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Saints -110, Giants -107) prices the Saints at 50% and the Giants at 50%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27
New Orleans Saints won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (New York Giants +1.5): New Orleans Saints covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- New Orleans Saints closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward New York Giants.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New Orleans Saints 50%, New York Giants 50%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:23 — New York Giants ball, 3rd & 6 at NO 17(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan].New York Giants 55% → 63% (+8 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:56 — New Orleans Saints ball, 4th & 10 at NYG 3710-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.New York Giants 67% → 75% (+8 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:11 — New Orleans Saints ball, 1st & 10 at NYG 286-T.Shough scrambles right end to NYG 3 for 25 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 20-G.Newsome).New Orleans Saints 40% → 47% (+7 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:05 — New Orleans Saints ball, 4th & 2 at NYG 2(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New Orleans Saints 39% → 51% (+12 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:31 — New Orleans Saints ball, 2nd & 8 at NYG 31(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New Orleans Saints 60% → 73% (+13 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
New Orleans Saints won after falling as low as 19% (Q2 3:18).
Game DNA
| Saints | Points added | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| -10.8 | Passingdropbacks | -7.8 |
| -6.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.9 |
| +13.9 | Explosive plays10 plays · 12 plays | +21.1 |
| -5.1 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 4 giveaways | -19.1 |
| +5.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.5 |
| -2.1 | Penalties7 for 52 yds · 10 for 73 yds | +0.1 |
| +6.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 4 | -0.3 |
| +0.9 | All plays | -6.3 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 14.1 points to New Orleans Saints. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New Orleans Saints closed as the market favourite at 50% and won.
The line moved toward New York Giants before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Saints -1.5 (-109)
Saints -1.5 (+102)
Giants -102 48%
Giants -107 50%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Chris Olave has 537 receiving yards for the Saints (2nd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.7%. Malik Nabers has 329 receiving yards for the Giants (17th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.2%. Cam Skattebo has 294 rushing yards on 81 carries (15th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries28
- Rush yards86
- Yards per carry3.1
- EPA per rush−0.088
- Rush success rate32.1%
- Targets / catches54 / 39
- Receiving yards5372nd
- Target share27.7%10th
- Yards per target9.918th
- EPA per target+0.70512th
- Targets / catches32 / 25
- Receiving yards2487th
- Target share16.4%15th
- Yards per target7.813th
- EPA per target+0.29117th
- Carries81
- Rush yards29415th
- Yards per carry3.630th
- EPA per rush−0.17434th
- Rush success rate35.8%30th
- Targets / catches46 / 29
- Receiving yards32917th
- Target share28.2%8th
- Yards per target7.259th
- EPA per target+0.20251st
- Targets / catches48 / 33
- Receiving yards2844th
- Target share29.4%2nd
- Yards per target5.926th
- EPA per target+0.33513th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Saints | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Giants defense | 39.9%25th | 46.3%27th |
| Early-down success rateGiants offense vs Saints defense | 51.0%31st | 39.5%27th |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Giants defense | −0.09628th | +0.07825th |
| Early-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Saints defense | +0.13930th | −0.07826th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Giants defense | 45.8%6th | 46.4%28th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGiants offense vs Saints defense | 50.0%29th | 44.9%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Giants defense | −0.13024th | +0.07021st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Saints defense | −0.06216th | +0.0849th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Giants defense | 76.5%4th | 69.2%23rd |
| Red-zone TD rateGiants offense vs Saints defense | 63.6%18th | 64.3%12th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Giants defense | 57.1%1st | 37.2%7th |
| Red-zone success rateGiants offense vs Saints defense | 43.1%18th | 42.5%17th |
On early downs the Saints succeed on 39.9% of plays (25th) against a Giants defense that allows 46.3% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 45.8% (6th) against a defense allowing 46.4% (28th). On early downs the Giants succeed on 39.5% of plays (27th) against a Saints defense that allows 51.0% (31st); on 3rd down they convert 44.9% (8th) against a defense allowing 50.0% (29th). The Saints score touchdowns on 76.5% of red-zone trips (4th). The Giants score touchdowns on 64.3% of red-zone trips (12th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Saints | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kellen Moore | John Harbaugh |
| Offensive coordinator | Doug Nussmeier | Matt Nagy |
| Defensive coordinator | Brandon Staley | Dennard Wilson |
| Offense tendencies | Saints | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −0.3%13th-highest | −6.0%28th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 67.1%4th-highest | 57.9%22nd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 62.9%3rd-highest | 51.6%25th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 69.9%5th-highest | 59.2%18th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 16.3%1st-highest | 6.9%11th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 30.031st-slowest | 35.32nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 14.3%19th | 15.6%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 7.6%24th | 6.4%31st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 3.7%32nd | 5.9%28th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.8%16th | 7.0%24th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 2.99%28th | 2.17%21st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 66.43rd-most | 64.27th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 |
| Defense | Saints | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 5.7%18th | 4.4%26th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 16.5%22nd | 15.1%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.5%17th | 7.6%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 11.4%29th | 11.2%27th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 1.29%27th | 2.43%8th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.2%25th | 11.7%28th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.1%20th | 17.7%25th |
The Saints run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.3% pass rate over expected, 13th-highest), while the Giants sit at −6.0% (28th-highest). In neutral situations the Saints take 30.0 seconds between snaps and the Giants 35.3, so the Saints play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Saints have gone for it 6 of 7 times and the Giants 1 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Saints won 5 and the Giants 2. In the most recent meeting (October 5, 2025), the Saints won 26-14; the Saints averaged +0.048 EPA per play; the Giants averaged −0.291 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Giants 14, Saints 26 Saints won | Saints -1.5 Saints covered | 41.5 under | Saints +0.048 · Giants −0.291 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Saints 14, Giants 11 Saints won | Saints -5.5 Giants covered | 41 under | Saints −0.082 · Giants −0.133 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Giants 6, Saints 24 Saints won | Saints -6 Saints covered | 39.5 under | Saints +0.088 · Giants −0.301 |
| Oct 3, 2021 | Giants 27, Saints 21 Giants won | Saints -7.5 Giants covered | 43 over | Saints +0.126 · Giants +0.237 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | Saints 33, Giants 18 Saints won | Saints -3.5 Saints covered | 51.5 under | Saints +0.234 · Giants −0.014 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New Orleans Saints
- New Orleans Saints team stats
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 (Oct 5)
New York Giants
- New York Giants team stats
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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