Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines Final — October 17, 2026
PSUOffense2026 regular season to dateMICH
PSUDefenseMICHPSURecent formMICHPSUHome and roadseason to dateMICHPSULast 10 gamesMICHRest & travelrest and travel
PSURest & travelMICHAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Penn State (3-3) visited Michigan (3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
Penn State has the 52nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 60th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Michigan has the 60th-ranked offense and the 7th-ranked defense. When Penn State has the ball, a 52nd-ranked offense (+0.096 EPA per play) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.158 allowed); when Michigan has it, a 60th-ranked offense (+0.078) meets a 60th-ranked defense (+0.035 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Penn State offense is at 46.9% (70th) and the Michigan offense at 50.2% (30th). Penn State scores 30.5 points per game (43rd) and allows 18.5 (29th); Michigan scores 23.0 (85th) and allows 15.8 (12th).
Penn State is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 31-23 loss to USC. Michigan is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 20-14 loss to Minnesota.
Michigan closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Penn State. The spread opened at Michigan -6. The total closed at 43.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penn State +190, Michigan -232) prices Penn State at 33% and Michigan at 67%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Penn State Nittany Lions 18, Michigan Wolverines 21
Michigan Wolverines won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Michigan Wolverines -6.5): Penn State Nittany Lions covered.
- Combined score 39 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Michigan Wolverines closed at -232 on the moneyline (a 67% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Penn State Nittany Lions 33%, Michigan Wolverines 67%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 12:19 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 1st & 10 at PSU 22Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #1 R.Moore at PSU43, End Of PlayMichigan Wolverines 50% → 61% (+11 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:58 — Michigan Wolverines ball, 2nd & 10 at PSU 43Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 43 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:58, 1ST DOWN #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Cr…Michigan Wolverines 59% → 74% (+16 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 8:20 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 3rd & 3 at MICH 32Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #7 C.Bracy at U-M26, End Of PlayMichigan Wolverines 68% → 78% (+10 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:02 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 1st & 10 at PSU 25Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 9 yards to the PSU16 (#7 C.Bracy), fumble by #3 R.Becht recovered by U-M #17 E.Etta at PSU16 #17 E.Etta return 3 yards to t…Michigan Wolverines 70% → 92% (+22 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:11 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 1st & 10 at MICH 24Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep left to #0 C.Sowell caught at U-M00, for 24 yards to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:11, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt g…Penn State Nittany Lions 4% → 14% (+9 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Penn State | Points added | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6 | Passingdropbacks | -5.4 |
| -8.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.9 |
| +9.5 | Explosive plays4 plays · 4 plays | +12.1 |
| -7.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -5.8 |
| +0.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.8 |
| +3.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.4 |
| -0.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 2 | +4.0 |
| -4.9 | All plays | +0.7 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 6.7 points to Michigan Wolverines. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Michigan Wolverines closed as the market favourite at 67% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Penn State +6 (-112)
Penn State +6.5 (-115)
Michigan -230 67%
Michigan -232 67%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts166
- Completion %62.7%118th
- Passing yards1,39764th
- Yards per attempt8.457th
- TD–INT11–3
- Rushing yards232191st
- Season line52 carries, 232 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards35979th
- Season line23 catches, 359 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4370th
- Attempts113
- Completion %59.3%172nd
- Passing yards881180th
- Yards per attempt7.895th
- TD–INT5–4
- Rushing yards244173rd
- Season line55 carries, 244 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards44626th
- Season line24 catches, 446 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles40109th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePenn State offense vs Michigan defense | 45.5%41st | 35.4%6th |
| Early-down success rateMichigan offense vs Penn State defense | 42.1%53rd | 47.4%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePenn State offense vs Michigan defense | 34.8%100th | 35.4%37th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMichigan offense vs Penn State defense | 33.9%29th | 40.0%74th |
| Explosive play ratePenn State offense vs Michigan defense | 7.1%62nd | 4.6%14th |
| Explosive play rateMichigan offense vs Penn State defense | 6.9%73rd | 4.7%122nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 51.3%66th-highest | 44.2%107th-highest |
On 3rd down Penn State converts 34.8% (100th) against a Michigan defense allowing 35.4% (37th).
On 3rd down Michigan converts 40.0% (74th) against a Penn State defense allowing 33.9% (29th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt Campbell | Kyle Whittingham |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 110–73 | 180–90 |
| Offensive coordinator | Taylor Mouser | Jason Beck |
| Defensive coordinator | D'Anton Lynn | Jay Hill |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Penn State won 0 and Michigan 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2023 | Michigan 24, Penn State 15 Michigan won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Penn State 17, Michigan 41 Michigan won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Michigan 21, Penn State 17 Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Penn State Nittany Lions
- Penn State Nittany Lions team stats
- Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions (Oct 31)
- USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23 (Oct 10)
- Penn State Nittany Lions 13, Northwestern Wildcats 34 (Oct 2)
Michigan Wolverines
- Michigan Wolverines team stats
- Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Oct 31)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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