Iowa State Cyclones vs BYU Cougars Final — October 9, 2026
ISUOffense2026 regular season to dateBYU
ISUDefenseBYUISURecent formBYUISUHome and roadseason to dateBYUISULast 10 gamesBYURest & travelrest and travel
ISURest & travelBYUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Iowa State (2-2) visited BYU (3-0) on Friday, October 9 at 10:15 PM ET.
Iowa State has the 38th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 94th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, BYU has the 16th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When Iowa State has the ball, a 38th-ranked offense (+0.159 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (−0.090 allowed); when BYU has it, a 16th-ranked offense (+0.266) meets a 94th-ranked defense (+0.138 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Iowa State offense is at 49.0% (44th) and the BYU offense at 48.6% (52nd). Iowa State scores 32.5 points per game (38th) and allows 24.0 (53rd); BYU scores 28.7 (55th) and allows 16.7 (23rd).
Iowa State is 3-2 and 2-2-1 against the spread; its last game was a 45-42 win over West Virginia. BYU is 4-0 and 4-0 against the spread; its last game was a 17-10 win over TCU.
BYU closed as a 11.5-point favorite at home against Iowa State. The spread opened at BYU -14.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Iowa State +375, BYU -500) prices Iowa State at 20% and BYU at 80%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Iowa State Cyclones 10, BYU Cougars 24
BYU Cougars won by 14.
- Against the closing spread (BYU Cougars -11.5): BYU Cougars covered.
- Combined score 34 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- BYU Cougars closed at -500 on the moneyline (a 80% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Iowa State Cyclones.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Iowa State Cyclones 20%, BYU Cougars 80%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 2:00 — BYU Cougars ball, 2nd & 7 at BYU 32Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #2 R.Saleapaga II caught at ISU47, for 63 yards to the ISU05 (#3 S.Johnson; #19 E.Lemos), 1ST DOWNBYU Cougars 84% → 91% (+7 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Iowa State | Points added | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| -18.7 | Passingdropbacks | +1.5 |
| +3.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.6 |
| +6.3 | Explosive plays2 plays · 5 plays | +16.3 |
| +1.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +3.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.0 |
| +1.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.4 |
| +4.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 2 of 5 | +1.2 |
| +2.2 | All plays | +24.2 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 20.2 points to BYU Cougars. The final margin was 14.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
BYU Cougars closed as the market favourite at 80% and won.
The line moved toward Iowa State Cyclones before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Iowa State +14.5 (-110)
Iowa State +11.5 (-110)
BYU -637 83%
BYU -500 80%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts119
- Completion %58.0%182nd
- Passing yards903134th
- Yards per attempt7.6117th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards5947th
- Season line73 carries, 594 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards212190th
- Season line10 catches, 212 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles4610th
- Attempts86
- Completion %64.0%98th
- Passing yards704209th
- Yards per attempt8.273rd
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards34457th
- Season line44 carries, 344 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards27996th
- Season line14 catches, 279 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles20519th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Iowa State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateIowa State offense vs BYU defense | 45.2%45th | 44.5%85th |
| Early-down success rateBYU offense vs Iowa State defense | 42.4%58th | 42.3%75th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIowa State offense vs BYU defense | 34.1%102nd | 42.9%93rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBYU offense vs Iowa State defense | 34.9%33rd | 51.5%13th |
| Explosive play rateIowa State offense vs BYU defense | 9.1%20th | 6.4%58th |
| Explosive play rateBYU offense vs Iowa State defense | 9.0%119th | 7.6%44th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 44.0%110th-highest | 41.4%118th-highest |
On 3rd down Iowa State converts 34.1% (102nd) against a BYU defense allowing 42.9% (93rd).
On 3rd down BYU converts 51.5% (13th) against a Iowa State defense allowing 34.9% (33rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Iowa State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jimmy Rogers | Kalani Sitake |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 11th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–2 | 88–45 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 9–8 | 88–45 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tyler Roehl | Aaron Roderick |
| Defensive coordinator | Jesse Bobbit | Kelly Poppinga |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Iowa State won 1 and BYU 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | BYU 41, Iowa State 27 BYU won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Iowa State 45, BYU 13 Iowa State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Iowa State Cyclones
- Iowa State Cyclones team stats
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (Oct 31)
- Iowa State Cyclones 3, Arizona Wildcats 39 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
BYU Cougars
More NCAAF games on October 9, 2026
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results