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NCAAF · October 17, 2026

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs BYU Cougars Final — October 17, 2026

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

6-0

Quarterback CJ Carr

FINAL

BYU Cougars

4-0

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier

Saturday, October 17 · 7:30 PM ET

NDOffense2026 regular season to dateBYU

11th+0.278

EPA/play

+0.3206th

13th53.3%

Success %

51.0%24th

2nd44.0

PPG

27.559th

NDDefenseBYU

5th−0.194

EPA/play allowed

−0.07920th

23rd42.5%

Success % allowed

43.8%32nd

2nd11.0

Opp PPG

15.09th

NDRecent formBYU

Wvs Rice 52-0Wvs Michigan State 27-10W@ Purdue 49-10W@ North Carolina 37-26Wvs Stanford 58-7

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Utah Tech 63-7Wvs Arizona 28-17W@ Colorado State 41-23W@ TCU 17-10Wvs Iowa State 24-10

6-0

Record

5-0

4-2

ATS

5-0

4-2

Over–under

2-3

NDHome and roadseason to dateBYU

4-0

Home record

3-0

2-0

Road record

2-0

3-1

Home ATS

3-0

1-1

Road ATS

2-0

2-2

Home O/U

1-2

2-0

Road O/U

1-1

NDLast 10 gamesBYU

Game by game

6-0

Last 6

—

+198

Net points

+106

—

Last 5

5-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

NDRest & travelBYU

7 days

Days of rest

8 days

1,325 mi2,132 km

Travel to the game

Home

−2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

LaVell Edwards Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

Notre Dame (6-0) visited BYU (4-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 PM ET.

Notre Dame has the 11th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 5th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, BYU has the 6th-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When Notre Dame has the ball, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.278 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (−0.079 allowed); when BYU has it, a 6th-ranked offense (+0.320) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.194 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Notre Dame offense is at 53.3% (13th) and the BYU offense at 51.0% (24th). Notre Dame scores 44.0 points per game (2nd) and allows 11.0 (2nd); BYU scores 27.5 (59th) and allows 15.0 (9th).

Notre Dame is 6-0 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 58-7 win over Stanford. BYU is 5-0 and 5-0 against the spread; its last game was a 24-10 win over Iowa State.

Notre Dame closed as a 10.5-point road favorite, with BYU getting the points at home. The spread opened at Notre Dame -13. The total closed at 47.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Notre Dame -425, BYU +333) prices Notre Dame at 78% and BYU at 22%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 24, BYU Cougars 28

BYU Cougars won by 4.

Against the closing spread (BYU Cougars +10.5): BYU Cougars covered.
Combined score 52 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
BYU Cougars closed at +333 on the moneyline (a 22% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

78%Market at the close22%

Notre Dame Fighting IrishBYU Cougars

80%Market at the open20%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward BYU Cougars.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Notre Dame Fighting Irish 78%, BYU Cougars 22%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q2 3:40 — BYU Cougars ball, 2nd & 1 at BYU 36Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 23 yards gain to the ND41 (#28 L.Talich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNNotre Dame Fighting Irish 36% → 61% (+26 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 1:47 — BYU Cougars ball, 3rd & 6 at ND 6Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #7 W.Lyons caught at ND00, for 6 yards to the ND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H:…BYU Cougars 51% → 72% (+21 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 0:43 — Notre Dame Fighting Irish ball, 3rd & 10 at ND 39Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #1 J.Greathouse caught at BYU37, for 24 yards to the BYU37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNNotre Dame Fighting Irish 18% → 37% (+20 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 0:04 — Notre Dame Fighting Irish ball, 1st & 8 at BYU 14Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at BYU09, for 6 yards to the BYU08 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNBYU Cougars 46% → 100% (+54 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 0:04 — Notre Dame Fighting Irish ball, 4th & 5 at BYU 14Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at BYU09, for 6 yards to the BYU08 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNNotre Dame Fighting Irish 26% → 54% (+29 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray

BYU Cougars won after falling as low as 17% (Q2 10:22).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Game DNA

Notre Dame	Points added	BYU
-8.7	Passingdropbacks	-4.9
+1.3	Rushingdesigned runs	+6.7
+3.8	Explosive plays2 plays · 3 plays	+2.6
+6.0	Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways	-3.8
+8.9	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	-0.8
+1.5	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	-4.9
+4.9	Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 5 · 3 of 4	+7.7
+17.7	All plays	+2.5

Bar left: Notre Dame gainedBar right: BYU gained

The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 9.8 points to Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The final margin was 4.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

Line review

Notre Dame Fighting Irish closed as the market favourite at 78% and lost.

The line moved toward BYU Cougars before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 2.5

OpenBYU +13 (-110)
Notre Dame -13 (-110)

CloseBYU +10.5 (-110)
Notre Dame -10.5 (-110)

Totaldown 2

Open49.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close47.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Moneyline

OpenNotre Dame -522 80%
BYU +390 20%

CloseNotre Dame -425 78%
BYU +333 22%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Notre Dame

QB · CJ Carr

Attempts138
Completion %70.3%
Passing yards1,325
Yards per attempt9.6
TD–INT16–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Jonaz Walton

Rushing yards40953rd
Season line52 carries, 409 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jordan Faison

Receiving yards38758th
Season line28 catches, 387 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Drayk Bowen

Tackles30307th

BYU

QB · Bear Bachmeier

Attempts116
Completion %66.4%63rd
Passing yards1,033144th
Yards per attempt8.942nd
TD–INT8–1

Leading rusher (RB) · LJ Martin

Rushing yards34486th
Season line44 carries, 344 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Legend Glasker

Receiving yards37862nd
Season line19 catches, 378 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Cade Uluave

Tackles26454th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Notre Dame	BYU
Early-down success rateNotre Dame offense vs BYU defense	50.4%10th	42.5%57th
Early-down success rateBYU offense vs Notre Dame defense	38.2%17th	43.9%62nd
3rd-down conversion rateNotre Dame offense vs BYU defense	40.9%69th	35.4%38th
3rd-down conversion rateBYU offense vs Notre Dame defense	35.8%42nd	48.8%22nd
Explosive play rateNotre Dame offense vs BYU defense	7.8%41st	5.7%33rd
Explosive play rateBYU offense vs Notre Dame defense	3.0%1st	8.7%25th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	44.6%106th-highest	43.6%112th-highest

On 3rd down Notre Dame converts 40.9% (69th) against a BYU defense allowing 35.4% (38th).

On 3rd down BYU converts 48.8% (22nd) against a Notre Dame defense allowing 35.8% (42nd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Notre Dame	BYU
Head coach	Marcus Freeman	Kalani Sitake
Tenureat this school	5th season	11th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	49–12	89–45
Career recordas an FBS head coach	49–12	89–45
Offensive coordinator	Mike Denbrock	Aaron Roderick
Defensive coordinator	Chris Ash / Aaron Henry	Kelly Poppinga

Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Notre Dame won 1 and BYU 0.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 8, 2022 neutral	BYU 20, Notre Dame 28 Notre Dame won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Teams