BYU Cougars vs TCU Horned Frogs Final — October 3, 2026
BYUOffense2026 regular season to dateTCU
BYUDefenseTCUBYULast 10 gamesTCURest & travelrest and travel
BYURest & travelTCUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
BYU (2-0) visited TCU (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET.
BYU has the 1st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 70th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, TCU has the 83rd-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When BYU has the ball, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.548 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (−0.138 allowed); when TCU has it, a 83rd-ranked offense (−0.021) meets a 70th-ranked defense (+0.016 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the BYU offense is at 47.6% (25th) and the TCU offense at 43.1% (71st). BYU scores 34.5 points per game (23rd) and allows 20.0 (36th); TCU scores 18.0 (105th) and allows 14.3 (13th).
TCU is 1-2; its last game was a 21-13 loss to UCF.
BYU closed as a 5.5-point road favorite, with TCU getting the points at home. The spread opened at BYU -7.5. The total closed at 48.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (BYU -225, TCU +180) prices BYU at 66% and TCU at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
BYU Cougars 17, TCU Horned Frogs 10
BYU Cougars won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (TCU Horned Frogs +5.5): BYU Cougars covered.
- Combined score 27 vs the closing total of 48.5: Under.
- BYU Cougars closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward TCU Horned Frogs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (BYU Cougars 66%, TCU Horned Frogs 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 10:49 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 4th & 4 at BYU 35No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass intercepted by #11 F.Satuala at BYU25 #11 F.Satuala return 59 yards to the TCU16 (#18 E.Small; #15 T.Shelton)BYU Cougars 57% → 74% (+16 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:52 — BYU Cougars ball, 3rd & 9 at TCU 9Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:52 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)BYU Cougars 71% → 78% (+8 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:27 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 2nd & 10 at BYU 13No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at BYU00, for 13 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashl…TCU Horned Frogs 29% → 40% (+11 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:27 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 3rd & 5 at TCU 40No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU48, for 13 yards to the BYU47 (#31 J.Clifton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNTCU Horned Frogs 31% → 39% (+8 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:01 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 4th & 9 at BYU 28#99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 08:01, End Of PlayBYU Cougars 66% → 78% (+12 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, BYU Cougars would win 52% of the time (TCU Horned Frogs 48%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| BYU | Points added | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 | Passingdropbacks | -1.1 |
| -0.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -9.9 |
| +4.7 | Explosive plays1 plays · 2 plays | +1.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.9 |
| +3.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.4 |
| -4.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.3 |
| +1.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 1 of 1 | +3.0 |
| -0.6 | All plays | -10.7 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 9.3 points to BYU Cougars. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
BYU Cougars closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward TCU Horned Frogs before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
BYU -7.5 (-110)
BYU -5.5 (-110)
TCU +212 31%
TCU +180 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts62
- Completion %71.0%23rd
- Passing yards642183rd
- Yards per attempt10.312th
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards32842nd
- Season line42 carries, 328 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards27069th
- Season line11 catches, 270 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles14712th
- Attempts132
- Completion %68.2%52nd
- Passing yards1,21321st
- Yards per attempt9.232nd
- TD–INT7–3
- Rushing yards35528th
- Season line73 carries, 355 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards37118th
- Season line24 catches, 371 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles22250th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBYU offense vs TCU defense | 40.5%54th | 41.3%91st |
| Early-down success rateTCU offense vs BYU defense | 44.9%116th | 38.6%84th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBYU offense vs TCU defense | 52.9%10th | 31.2%16th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTCU offense vs BYU defense | 50.0%120th | 46.7%33rd |
| Explosive play rateBYU offense vs TCU defense | 11.5%1st | 5.1%29th |
| Explosive play rateTCU offense vs BYU defense | 5.9%42nd | 7.5%52nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 41.7%116th-highest | 52.8%56th-highest |
On 3rd down BYU converts 52.9% (10th) against a TCU defense allowing 31.2% (16th).
On 3rd down TCU converts 46.7% (33rd) against a BYU defense allowing 50.0% (120th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kalani Sitake | Sonny Dykes |
| Tenureat this school | 11th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 87–45 | 38–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 87–45 | 109–82 |
| Offensive coordinator | Aaron Roderick | A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis |
| Defensive coordinator | Kelly Poppinga | Andy Avalos |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: BYU won 1 and TCU 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | TCU 13, BYU 44 BYU won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | BYU 11, TCU 44 TCU won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
BYU Cougars
- BYU Cougars team stats
- Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars (Oct 31)
- BYU Cougars 31, UCF Knights 39 (Oct 24)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 24, BYU Cougars 28 (Oct 17)
- Iowa State Cyclones 10, BYU Cougars 24 (Oct 9)
TCU Horned Frogs
- TCU Horned Frogs team stats
- Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (Oct 31)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6 (Oct 17)
- TCU Horned Frogs 13, UCF Knights 21 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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