Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona Wildcats Final — October 24, 2026
ISUOffense2026 regular season to dateARIZ
ISUDefenseARIZISURecent formARIZISUHome and roadseason to dateARIZISULast 10 gamesARIZRest & travelrest and travel
ISURest & travelARIZAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Iowa State (2-3) visited Arizona (4-1) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET.
Iowa State has the 53rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 121st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arizona has the 14th-ranked offense and the 46th-ranked defense. When Iowa State has the ball, a 53rd-ranked offense (+0.118 EPA per play) meets a 46th-ranked defense (+0.007 allowed); when Arizona has it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.257) meets a 121st-ranked defense (+0.207 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Iowa State offense is at 47.1% (68th) and the Arizona offense at 50.2% (29th). Iowa State scores 28.0 points per game (55th) and allows 24.0 (52nd); Arizona scores 35.8 (16th) and allows 21.4 (37th).
Iowa State is 3-3 and 2-3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 24-10 loss to BYU. Arizona is 5-1 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 52-31 win over West Virginia.
Arizona closed as a 11.5-point favorite at home against Iowa State. The spread opened at Arizona -9.5. The total closed at 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Iowa State +298, Arizona -405) prices Iowa State at 24% and Arizona at 76%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Iowa State Cyclones 3, Arizona Wildcats 39
Arizona Wildcats won by 36.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona Wildcats -11.5): Arizona Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 42 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Arizona Wildcats closed at -405 on the moneyline (a 76% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Arizona Wildcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Iowa State Cyclones 24%, Arizona Wildcats 76%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:29 — Arizona Wildcats ball, 2nd & 6 at ARIZ 29No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep right to #17 I.Mizell caught at ISU41, for 71 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:29, 1ST DOWN #87 T.Powell p…Arizona Wildcats 76% → 86% (+10 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Iowa State | Points added | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| -10.8 | Passingdropbacks | +1.0 |
| +4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.2 |
| +7.3 | Explosive plays2 plays · 2 plays | +10.7 |
| -5.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| +0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.9 |
| -5.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 3 of 4 | +4.7 |
| -14.0 | All plays | +11.5 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 12.3 points to Iowa State Cyclones. The final margin was 36.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Arizona Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 76% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Iowa State +9.5 (-110)
Iowa State +11.5 (-110)
Arizona -365 75%
Arizona -405 76%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts148
- Completion %57.4%189th
- Passing yards1,001183rd
- Yards per attempt6.8175th
- TD–INT7–4
- Rushing yards68013th
- Season line90 carries, 680 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards212307th
- Season line10 catches, 212 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5627th
- Attempts190
- Completion %73.2%5th
- Passing yards1,73937th
- Yards per attempt9.228th
- TD–INT16–4
- Rushing yards262197th
- Season line72 carries, 262 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards359103rd
- Season line19 catches, 359 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles39208th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Iowa State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateIowa State offense vs Arizona defense | 43.6%64th | 46.4%112th |
| Early-down success rateArizona offense vs Iowa State defense | 43.7%81st | 45.2%44th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIowa State offense vs Arizona defense | 29.6%126th | 42.6%95th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona offense vs Iowa State defense | 35.8%38th | 58.2%2nd |
| Explosive play rateIowa State offense vs Arizona defense | 8.0%34th | 6.2%45th |
| Explosive play rateArizona offense vs Iowa State defense | 9.6%132nd | 9.4%11th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.5%101st-highest | 54.9%27th-highest |
On 3rd down Iowa State converts 29.6% (126th) against a Arizona defense allowing 42.6% (95th).
On 3rd down Arizona converts 58.2% (2nd) against a Iowa State defense allowing 35.8% (38th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Iowa State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jimmy Rogers | Brent Brennan |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–3 | 18–13 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 9–9 | 52–61 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tyler Roehl | Seth Doege |
| Defensive coordinator | Jesse Bobbit | Danny Gonzales |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Iowa State won 1 and Arizona 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Arizona 14, Iowa State 39 Iowa State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Iowa State Cyclones
- Iowa State Cyclones team stats
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (Oct 31)
- Iowa State Cyclones 10, BYU Cougars 24 (Oct 9)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
Arizona Wildcats
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
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- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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