Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals Final — October 9, 2026
FSUOffense2026 regular season to dateLOU
FSUDefenseLOUFSURecent formLOUFSUHome and roadseason to dateLOUFSULast 10 gamesLOURest & travelrest and travel
FSURest & travelLOUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Florida State (2-2) visited Louisville (1-3) on Friday, October 9 at 7:00 PM ET.
Florida State has the 39th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 103rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Louisville has the 30th-ranked offense and the 105th-ranked defense. When Florida State has the ball, a 39th-ranked offense (+0.154 EPA per play) meets a 105th-ranked defense (+0.164 allowed); when Louisville has it, a 30th-ranked offense (+0.194) meets a 103rd-ranked defense (+0.163 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Florida State offense is at 46.9% (66th) and the Louisville offense at 48.1% (54th). Florida State scores 33.0 points per game (35th) and allows 25.2 (59th); Louisville scores 33.5 (28th) and allows 33.2 (109th).
Florida State is 3-2; its last game was a 38-7 win over Virginia. Louisville is 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 31-28 loss to NC State.
Louisville closed as a 4-point favorite at home against Florida State. The spread opened at Louisville -7.5. The total closed at 60.5, up from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Florida State +152, Louisville -188) prices Florida State at 38% and Louisville at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Florida State Seminoles 20, Louisville Cardinals 44
Louisville Cardinals won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (Louisville Cardinals -4): Louisville Cardinals covered.
- Combined score 64 vs the closing total of 60.5: Over.
- Louisville Cardinals closed at -188 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 10 points toward Florida State Seminoles.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida State Seminoles 38%, Louisville Cardinals 62%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 4:43 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 4th & 1 at FSU 45Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU45 (#10 C.Jones; #13 D.Diggs), TURNOVER ON DOWNSFlorida State Seminoles 53% → 62% (+9 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:08 — Florida State Seminoles ball, 1st & 10 at LOU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at LOU10, for 25 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Paniko…Florida State Seminoles 68% → 74% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 9:16 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at LOU 3#1 I.Brown rush left for 97 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:16, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)Louisville Cardinals 21% → 37% (+17 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:16 — Florida State Seminoles ball, 3rd & 8 at FSU 27No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU39, for 13 yards to the FSU40 (#13 T.Holloway), 1ST DOWNFlorida State Seminoles 37% → 43% (+6 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:36 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at LOU 20Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LOU22 (#3 M.Desir)Louisville Cardinals 62% → 73% (+11 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Louisville Cardinals won after falling as low as 13% (Q2 10:16).
Game DNA
| Florida State | Points added | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 | Passingdropbacks | -7.3 |
| +5.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | +5.7 |
| +3.1 | Explosive plays2 plays · 7 plays | +26.8 |
| -2.4 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -2.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.1 |
| +0.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.0 |
| -1.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 3 of 4 | +4.9 |
| -0.1 | All plays | +28.9 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 23.7 points to Louisville Cardinals. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Louisville Cardinals closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
The line moved toward Florida State Seminoles before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Florida State +7.5 (-110)
Florida State +4 (-110)
Louisville -299 72%
Louisville -188 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts116
- Completion %60.3%155th
- Passing yards1,11188th
- Yards per attempt9.619th
- TD–INT6–6
- Rushing yards47719th
- Season line81 carries, 477 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards28095th
- Season line15 catches, 280 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles31150th
- Attempts139
- Completion %69.1%36th
- Passing yards1,39435th
- Yards per attempt10.015th
- TD–INT9–1
- Rushing yards36745th
- Season line38 carries, 367 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards44520th
- Season line28 catches, 445 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3849th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Florida State | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFlorida State offense vs Louisville defense | 43.2%68th | 48.7%118th |
| Early-down success rateLouisville offense vs Florida State defense | 43.4%70th | 46.5%33rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida State offense vs Louisville defense | 44.2%45th | 38.2%59th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisville offense vs Florida State defense | 43.4%98th | 42.0%64th |
| Explosive play rateFlorida State offense vs Louisville defense | 10.0%10th | 6.7%71st |
| Explosive play rateLouisville offense vs Florida State defense | 8.1%104th | 10.8%4th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.0%115th-highest | 50.4%76th-highest |
On 3rd down Florida State converts 44.2% (45th) against a Louisville defense allowing 38.2% (59th).
On 3rd down Louisville converts 42.0% (64th) against a Florida State defense allowing 43.4% (98th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Florida State | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Norvell | Jeff Brohm |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 41–36 | 30–15 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 79–51 | 96–59 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tim Harris Jr. | Brian Brohm |
| Defensive coordinator | Tony White | Steve Ellis / Mark Ivey |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Florida State won 2 and Louisville 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 neutral | Louisville 6, Florida State 16 Florida State won | ||
| Sep 16, 2022 | Florida State 35, Louisville 31 Florida State won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | Louisville 31, Florida State 23 Louisville won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Florida State Seminoles
- Florida State Seminoles team stats
- Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (Oct 31)
- Florida State Seminoles 35, Miami Hurricanes 43 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 7, Florida State Seminoles 38 (Oct 3)
Louisville Cardinals
- Louisville Cardinals team stats
- Stanford Cardinal at Louisville Cardinals (Oct 31)
- Louisville Cardinals 34, Syracuse Orange 26 (Oct 17)
- Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31 (Oct 3)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 30, Louisville Cardinals 27 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 9, 2026
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