South Alabama Jaguars vs Marshall Thundering Herd Final — October 20, 2026
USAOffense2026 regular season to dateMRSH
USADefenseMRSHUSARecent formMRSHUSAHome and roadseason to dateMRSHUSALast 10 gamesMRSHRest & travelrest and travel
USARest & travelMRSHAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
South Alabama (3-2) visited Marshall (2-3) on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:30 PM ET.
South Alabama has the 6th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 133rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Marshall has the 94th-ranked offense and the 118th-ranked defense. When South Alabama has the ball, a 6th-ranked offense (+0.305 EPA per play) meets a 118th-ranked defense (+0.203 allowed); when Marshall has it, a 94th-ranked offense (−0.004) meets a 133rd-ranked defense (+0.293 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the South Alabama offense is at 52.0% (18th) and the Marshall offense at 49.0% (47th). South Alabama scores 38.8 points per game (7th) and allows 38.6 (130th); Marshall scores 19.2 (111th) and allows 33.4 (116th).
South Alabama is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 56-49 win over Arkansas State. Marshall is 3-3 and 1-5 against the spread; its last game was a 27-21 loss to Coastal Carolina.
South Alabama closed as a 2-point road favorite, with Marshall getting the points at home. The spread opened at South Alabama -3. The total closed at 66.5, up from 62.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (South Alabama -125, Marshall +105) prices South Alabama at 53% and Marshall at 47%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
South Alabama Jaguars 13, Marshall Thundering Herd 20
Marshall Thundering Herd won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Marshall Thundering Herd +2): Marshall Thundering Herd covered.
- Combined score 33 vs the closing total of 66.5: Under.
- Marshall Thundering Herd closed at +105 on the moneyline (a 47% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Marshall Thundering Herd.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (South Alabama Jaguars 53%, Marshall Thundering Herd 47%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 6:17 — South Alabama Jaguars ball, 1st & 10 at MRSH 43No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass intercepted by #55 C.Funderburk at MAR45 broken up by #2 C.McCartherens, End Of PlayMarshall Thundering Herd 38% → 55% (+17 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:27 — Marshall Thundering Herd ball, 2nd & 15 at MRSH 40Shotgun #1 Z.Turner pass complete deep left to #2 A.Norton caught at USA30, for 38 yards to the USA22 (#2 J.Henderson), 1ST DOWNMarshall Thundering Herd 50% → 63% (+13 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:40 — South Alabama Jaguars ball, 4th & 9 at USA 21No Huddle #9 R.Gibbs rush left for 26 yards gain to the USA47 (#2 C.McCartherens), 1ST DOWNSouth Alabama Jaguars 14% → 26% (+12 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:38 — South Alabama Jaguars ball, 1st & 10 at MRSH 19No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 19 yards gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:38, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS:…South Alabama Jaguars 33% → 44% (+11 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:45 — Marshall Thundering Herd ball, 1st & 10 at USA 45Shotgun #4 K.Wilkins rush middle for 22 yards gain to the USA23 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNMarshall Thundering Herd 68% → 79% (+10 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Marshall Thundering Herd won after falling as low as 32% (Q1 3:57).
Game DNA
| South Alabama | Points added | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 | Passingdropbacks | +0.6 |
| -4.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.5 |
| +10.1 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +3.7 |
| -6.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.1 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.4 |
| +2.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 4 | +6.3 |
| -8.3 | All plays | +6.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 6.8 points to Marshall Thundering Herd. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
South Alabama Jaguars closed as the market favourite at 53% and lost.
The line moved toward Marshall Thundering Herd before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
South Alabama -3 (-110)
South Alabama -2 (-111)
Marshall +117 44%
Marshall +105 47%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts92
- Completion %60.9%142nd
- Passing yards855209th
- Yards per attempt9.325th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards44446th
- Season line80 carries, 444 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards35587th
- Season line21 catches, 355 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4285th
- Attempts139
- Completion %64.0%91st
- Passing yards1,014178th
- Yards per attempt7.3132nd
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards230199th
- Season line49 carries, 230 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards324112th
- Season line22 catches, 324 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4461st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 18, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | South Alabama | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSouth Alabama offense vs Marshall defense | 47.9%17th | 46.4%110th |
| Early-down success rateMarshall offense vs South Alabama defense | 49.6%131st | 44.0%60th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Alabama offense vs Marshall defense | 43.8%42nd | 36.4%39th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMarshall offense vs South Alabama defense | 52.0%132nd | 45.2%36th |
| Explosive play rateSouth Alabama offense vs Marshall defense | 8.5%26th | 9.7%130th |
| Explosive play rateMarshall offense vs South Alabama defense | 10.4%134th | 6.3%83rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 35.8%132nd-highest | 51.4%63rd-highest |
On 3rd down South Alabama converts 43.8% (42nd) against a Marshall defense allowing 36.4% (39th).
On 3rd down Marshall converts 45.2% (36th) against a South Alabama defense allowing 52.0% (132nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | South Alabama | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Major Applewhite | Tony Gibson |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 15–16 | 8–10 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 30–27 | 8–10 |
| Offensive coordinator | Major Applewhite | Rod Smith |
| Defensive coordinator | Todd Orlando / Jason Washington | Brad Lambert |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: South Alabama won 1 and Marshall 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | Marshall 0, South Alabama 28 South Alabama won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
South Alabama Jaguars
- South Alabama Jaguars team stats
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Alabama Jaguars (Oct 31)
- South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 (Oct 8)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 35, South Alabama Jaguars 52 (Oct 3)
Marshall Thundering Herd
- Marshall Thundering Herd team stats
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs (Oct 31)
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 27, Marshall Thundering Herd 21 (Oct 10)
- Marshall Thundering Herd 17, James Madison Dukes 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 20, 2026
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