UL Monroe Warhawks vs South Alabama Jaguars Final — October 3, 2026
ULMOffense2026 regular season to dateUSA
ULMDefenseUSAULMLast 10 gamesUSARest & travelrest and travel
ULMRest & travelUSAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UL Monroe (0-3) visited South Alabama (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET.
UL Monroe has the 111th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 103rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, South Alabama has the 42nd-ranked offense and the 134th-ranked defense. When UL Monroe has the ball, a 111th-ranked offense (−0.149 EPA per play) meets a 134th-ranked defense (+0.327 allowed); when South Alabama has it, a 42nd-ranked offense (+0.093) meets a 103rd-ranked defense (+0.137 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UL Monroe offense is at 36.1% (130th) and the South Alabama offense at 43.4% (67th). UL Monroe scores 16.7 points per game (112th) and allows 44.3 (134th); South Alabama scores 28.7 (56th) and allows 36.3 (118th).
South Alabama closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against UL Monroe. The spread opened at South Alabama -14.5. The total closed at 56.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UL Monroe +428, South Alabama -637) prices UL Monroe at 18% and South Alabama at 82%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UL Monroe Warhawks 35, South Alabama Jaguars 52
South Alabama Jaguars won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (South Alabama Jaguars -13.5): South Alabama Jaguars covered.
- Combined score 87 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- South Alabama Jaguars closed at -637 on the moneyline (a 82% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward UL Monroe Warhawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UL Monroe Warhawks 18%, South Alabama Jaguars 82%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:08 — South Alabama Jaguars ball, 2nd & 7 at USA 28No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete deep right to #12 B.Jenkins caught at ULM50, for 72 yards to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:08, 1ST DOWN #35 M.Lasete…South Alabama Jaguars 81% → 89% (+7 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, South Alabama Jaguars would win 95% of the time (UL Monroe Warhawks 5%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured South Alabama Jaguars. Here is where that came from.
| UL Monroe | Points added | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 | Passingdropbacks | +4.1 |
| -5.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.9 |
| +16.2 | Explosive plays5 plays · 7 plays | +25.2 |
| -8.1 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -6.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.2 |
| -1.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.6 |
| +11.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 2 of 4 | +2.0 |
| +9.1 | All plays | +24.6 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.4 points to UL Monroe Warhawks. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
South Alabama Jaguars closed as the market favourite at 82% and won.
The line moved toward UL Monroe Warhawks before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UL Monroe +14.5 (-109)
UL Monroe +13.5 (-111)
South Alabama -835 85%
South Alabama -637 82%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts66
- Completion %65.2%88th
- Passing yards493222nd
- Yards per attempt7.5114th
- TD–INT3–0
- Rushing yards219120th
- Season line37 carries, 219 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards141292nd
- Season line21 catches, 141 yds
- Tackles3432nd
- Attempts63
- Completion %57.1%182nd
- Passing yards458230th
- Yards per attempt7.3130th
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards27072nd
- Season line63 carries, 270 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards236109th
- Season line19 catches, 236 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles2977th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | UL Monroe | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUL Monroe offense vs South Alabama defense | 34.3%123rd | 46.3%125th |
| Early-down success rateSouth Alabama offense vs UL Monroe defense | 43.0%104th | 38.4%88th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUL Monroe offense vs South Alabama defense | 25.8%129th | 51.7%125th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Alabama offense vs UL Monroe defense | 58.3%135th | 46.3%35th |
| Explosive play rateUL Monroe offense vs South Alabama defense | 2.2%137th | 10.0%125th |
| Explosive play rateSouth Alabama offense vs UL Monroe defense | 8.6%110th | 7.7%47th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.9%96th-highest | 43.3%109th-highest |
On 3rd down UL Monroe converts 25.8% (129th) against a South Alabama defense allowing 51.7% (125th).
On 3rd down South Alabama converts 46.3% (35th) against a UL Monroe defense allowing 58.3% (135th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | UL Monroe | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bryant Vincent | Major Applewhite |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 8–20 | 13–16 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 15–26 | 28–27 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jesse Montalto | Major Applewhite |
| Defensive coordinator | Troy Reffett | Todd Orlando / Jason Washington |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: UL Monroe won 1 and South Alabama 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | South Alabama 26, UL Monroe 14 South Alabama won | ||
| Oct 26, 2024 | UL Monroe 17, South Alabama 46 South Alabama won | ||
| Oct 7, 2023 | South Alabama 55, UL Monroe 7 South Alabama won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | UL Monroe 34, South Alabama 41 South Alabama won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | South Alabama 31, UL Monroe 41 UL Monroe won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UL Monroe Warhawks
- UL Monroe Warhawks team stats
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks (Oct 31)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 21, Troy Trojans 14 (Oct 24)
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 24, UL Monroe Warhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
South Alabama Jaguars
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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