South Alabama Jaguars vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Final — October 8, 2026
USAOffense2026 regular season to dateARST
USADefenseARSTUSARecent formARSTUSAHome and roadseason to dateARSTUSALast 10 gamesARSTRest & travelrest and travel
USARest & travelARSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
South Alabama (2-2) visited Arkansas State (1-3) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:30 PM ET.
South Alabama has the 11th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 130th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arkansas State has the 60th-ranked offense and the 123rd-ranked defense. When South Alabama has the ball, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.284 EPA per play) meets a 123rd-ranked defense (+0.263 allowed); when Arkansas State has it, a 60th-ranked offense (+0.087) meets a 130th-ranked defense (+0.289 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the South Alabama offense is at 52.3% (20th) and the Arkansas State offense at 47.1% (61st). South Alabama scores 34.5 points per game (23rd) and allows 36.0 (117th); Arkansas State scores 17.0 (115th) and allows 27.5 (77th).
South Alabama is 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 52-35 win over UL Monroe. Arkansas State is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 23-20 loss to Louisiana.
Arkansas State closed as a 3.5-point favorite at home against South Alabama. The spread opened at Arkansas State -1.5. The total closed at 59.5, up from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (South Alabama +137, Arkansas State -165) prices South Alabama at 40% and Arkansas State at 60%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49
South Alabama Jaguars won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Arkansas State Red Wolves -3.5): South Alabama Jaguars covered.
- Combined score 105 vs the closing total of 59.5: Over.
- South Alabama Jaguars closed at +137 on the moneyline (a 40% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Arkansas State Red Wolves.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (South Alabama Jaguars 40%, Arkansas State Red Wolves 60%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:30 — South Alabama Jaguars ball, 1st & 10 at USA 22PENALTY USA False Start (#69 K.Jerido) 5 yards from USA22 to USA17. NO PLAYArkansas State Red Wolves 36% → 54% (+18 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 1:44 — Arkansas State Red Wolves ball, 2nd & 1 at USA 1#31 T.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:44 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)South Alabama Jaguars 50% → 64% (+15 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:52 — Arkansas State Red Wolves ball, 2nd & 5 at ARST 30Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ASU28 (#18 M.Lewis), fumble by #9 T.Owens recovered by USA #11 P.Shattuck at ASU28, End Of PlaySouth Alabama Jaguars 43% → 55% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:44 — Arkansas State Red Wolves ball, 1st & 10 at ARST 23No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #18 M.Lewis at ASU16 broken up by #48 J.Williams #18 M.Lewis return 4 yards to the ASU12 (#52 M.Myers)South Alabama Jaguars 67% → 80% (+12 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:29 — South Alabama Jaguars ball, 1st & 10 at USA 25Kneel down by #7 J.Hollins at USA22 for loss of 3 yardsSouth Alabama Jaguars 66% → 80% (+14 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
South Alabama Jaguars won after falling as low as 23% (Q2 5:18).
Game DNA
| South Alabama | Points added | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 | Passingdropbacks | +9.6 |
| -0.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.1 |
| +17.0 | Explosive plays5 plays · 8 plays | +9.3 |
| -0.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -12.7 |
| +3.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| +1.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.8 |
| +8.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 5 of 5 · 7 of 8 | +19.2 |
| +24.3 | All plays | +28.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 14.8 points to Arkansas State Red Wolves. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Arkansas State Red Wolves closed as the market favourite at 60% and lost.
The line moved toward Arkansas State Red Wolves before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
South Alabama +1.5 (-110)
South Alabama +3.5 (-110)
Arkansas State -120 52%
Arkansas State -165 60%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts82
- Completion %61.0%144th
- Passing yards779180th
- Yards per attempt9.521st
- TD–INT6–2
- Rushing yards32867th
- Season line76 carries, 328 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards31968th
- Season line20 catches, 319 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles32133rd
- Attempts133
- Completion %66.9%57th
- Passing yards1,043102nd
- Yards per attempt7.8100th
- TD–INT5–4
- Rushing yards211175th
- Season line42 carries, 211 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards263117th
- Season line20 catches, 263 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles4610th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSouth Alabama offense vs Arkansas State defense | 48.2%18th | 48.8%119th |
| Early-down success rateArkansas State offense vs South Alabama defense | 46.7%106th | 45.9%35th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Alabama offense vs Arkansas State defense | 46.3%34th | 51.1%126th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas State offense vs South Alabama defense | 45.0%107th | 41.3%66th |
| Explosive play rateSouth Alabama offense vs Arkansas State defense | 8.5%31st | 8.2%108th |
| Explosive play rateArkansas State offense vs South Alabama defense | 9.5%128th | 7.6%45th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 40.2%125th-highest | 54.3%38th-highest |
On 3rd down South Alabama converts 46.3% (34th) against a Arkansas State defense allowing 51.1% (126th).
On 3rd down Arkansas State converts 41.3% (66th) against a South Alabama defense allowing 45.0% (107th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Major Applewhite | Butch Jones |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 14–16 | 28–40 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 29–27 | 112–94 |
| Offensive coordinator | Major Applewhite | Garrett Altman |
| Defensive coordinator | Todd Orlando / Jason Washington | Griffin McCarley |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: South Alabama won 3 and Arkansas State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14 Arkansas State won | ||
| Oct 5, 2024 | South Alabama 16, Arkansas State 18 Arkansas State won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Arkansas State 14, South Alabama 21 South Alabama won | ||
| Oct 29, 2022 | South Alabama 31, Arkansas State 3 South Alabama won | ||
| Oct 30, 2021 | Arkansas State 13, South Alabama 31 South Alabama won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
South Alabama Jaguars
- South Alabama Jaguars team stats
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Alabama Jaguars (Oct 31)
- South Alabama Jaguars 13, Marshall Thundering Herd 20 (Oct 20)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 35, South Alabama Jaguars 52 (Oct 3)
Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Arkansas State Red Wolves team stats
- Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 38 (Oct 24)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 23, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 13 (Oct 17)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 20, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 23 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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