Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Final — November 3, 2026
BUFOffense2026 regular season to dateM-OH
BUFDefenseM-OHBUFRecent formM-OHBUFHome and roadseason to dateM-OHBUFLast 10 gamesM-OHRest & travelrest and travel
BUFRest & travelM-OHAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
The pre-game matchup
Buffalo (3-3) visited Miami (OH) (4-3) on Tuesday, November 3 at 8:00 PM ET.
Buffalo has the 95th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 75th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Miami (OH) has the 49th-ranked offense and the 76th-ranked defense. When Buffalo has the ball, a 95th-ranked offense (−0.011 EPA per play) meets a 76th-ranked defense (+0.085 allowed); when Miami (OH) has it, a 49th-ranked offense (+0.106) meets a 75th-ranked defense (+0.083 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Buffalo offense is at 39.3% (135th) and the Miami (OH) offense at 46.2% (73rd). Buffalo scores 21.5 points per game (102nd) and allows 26.3 (72nd); Miami (OH) scores 24.4 (74th) and allows 28.4 (87th).
Buffalo is 4-3 and 4-3 against the spread; its last game was a 31-24 win over Bowling Green. Miami (OH) is 5-3 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 28-27 win over Central Michigan.
Miami (OH) closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Buffalo. The spread opened at Miami (OH) -5.5. The total closed at 45.5, up from 45 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Buffalo +215, Miami (OH) -270) prices Buffalo at 30% and Miami (OH) at 70%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Bulls 34, Miami (OH) RedHawks 31
Buffalo Bulls won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Miami (OH) RedHawks -6.5): Buffalo Bulls covered.
- Combined score 65 vs the closing total of 45.5: Over.
- Buffalo Bulls closed at +215 on the moneyline (a 30% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Miami (OH) RedHawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Bulls 30%, Miami (OH) RedHawks 70%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 1:54 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 2nd & 10 at M-OH 11Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Morrow thrown to Miami00 QB hurried by #15 B.MyrickBuffalo Bulls 22% → 37% (+15 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:35 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 3rd & 2 at M-OH 2Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush left for 2 yards gain to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:35 #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever) PENALT…Buffalo Bulls 29% → 40% (+12 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Buffalo Bulls ball, 4th & 6 at M-OH 25No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Early, Jr. thrown to Miami10 QB hurried by #8 C.YoungBuffalo Bulls 40% → 77% (+37 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Miami (OH) RedHawks ball, 4th & 12 at BUF 25No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUFF22 (#1 S.Brown; #33 J.Owens)Buffalo Bulls 72% → 100% (+28 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Buffalo Bulls ball, 3rd & 10 at M-OH 25No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Early, Jr. thrown to Miami10 QB hurried by #8 C.YoungBuffalo Bulls 40% → 54% (+14 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
Buffalo Bulls won after falling as low as 1% (Q4 12:01).
Game DNA
| Buffalo | Points added | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 | Passingdropbacks | -7.7 |
| -5.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.3 |
| +21.8 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +3.5 |
| -13.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.8 |
| +3.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.5 |
| +3.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 7 · 2 of 3 | +3.3 |
| +11.2 | All plays | +1.1 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 18.3 points to Buffalo Bulls. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Miami (OH) RedHawks closed as the market favourite at 70% and lost.
The line moved toward Miami (OH) RedHawks before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Buffalo +5.5 (-110)
Buffalo +6.5 (-105)
Miami (OH) -222 66%
Miami (OH) -270 70%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts185
- Completion %49.7%257th
- Passing yards987213th
- Yards per attempt5.3256th
- TD–INT7–4
- Rushing yards84514th
- Season line151 carries, 845 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards48078th
- Season line41 catches, 480 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles6741st
- Attempts94
- Completion %53.2%
- Passing yards561
- Yards per attempt6.0
- TD–INT3–4
- Rushing yards391138th
- Season line78 carries, 391 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards431116th
- Season line24 catches, 431 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5991st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 1, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBuffalo offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 34.2%138th | 40.7%34th |
| Early-down success rateMiami (OH) offense vs Buffalo defense | 46.2%114th | 43.6%56th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuffalo offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 36.3%100th | 44.0%98th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiami (OH) offense vs Buffalo defense | 39.0%56th | 34.2%111th |
| Explosive play rateBuffalo offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 4.7%130th | 6.7%70th |
| Explosive play rateMiami (OH) offense vs Buffalo defense | 5.2%23rd | 9.6%5th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.8%102nd-highest | 51.0%62nd-highest |
On 3rd down Buffalo converts 36.3% (100th) against a Miami (OH) defense allowing 44.0% (98th).
On 3rd down Miami (OH) converts 34.2% (111th) against a Buffalo defense allowing 39.0% (56th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Pete Lembo | Chuck Martin |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 13th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 19–14 | 77–77 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 52–43 | 77–77 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tony Tokarz | Gus Ragland |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Dougherty | Bill Brechin |
Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Buffalo won 1 and Miami (OH) 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | Miami (OH) 37, Buffalo 20 Miami (OH) won | ||
| Nov 15, 2023 | Buffalo 10, Miami (OH) 23 Miami (OH) won | ||
| Oct 1, 2022 | Miami (OH) 20, Buffalo 24 Buffalo won | ||
| Nov 9, 2021 | Buffalo 18, Miami (OH) 45 Miami (OH) won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Bulls
- Buffalo Bulls team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons 24, Buffalo Bulls 31 (Oct 24)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8 (Oct 10)
Miami (OH) RedHawks
More NCAAF games on November 3, 2026
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