Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls Final — October 24, 2026
BGSUOffense2026 regular season to dateBUF
BGSUDefenseBUFBGSURecent formBUFBGSUHome and roadseason to dateBUFBGSULast 10 gamesBUFRest & travelrest and travel
BGSURest & travelBUFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Bowling Green (2-4) visited Buffalo (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
Bowling Green has the 118th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 91st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Buffalo has the 104th-ranked offense and the 77th-ranked defense. When Bowling Green has the ball, a 118th-ranked offense (−0.070 EPA per play) meets a 77th-ranked defense (+0.094 allowed); when Buffalo has it, a 104th-ranked offense (−0.042) meets a 91st-ranked defense (+0.130 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bowling Green offense is at 39.7% (132nd) and the Buffalo offense at 38.2% (137th). Bowling Green scores 18.8 points per game (117th) and allows 31.2 (107th); Buffalo scores 19.6 (111th) and allows 26.8 (75th).
Bowling Green is 2-5 and 3-4 against the spread; its last game was a 32-31 loss to Ball State. Buffalo is 3-3 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 25-18 win over Massachusetts.
Buffalo closed as a 3-point favorite at home against Bowling Green. The spread opened at Buffalo -4.5. The total closed at 44.5, up from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bowling Green +129, Buffalo -154) prices Bowling Green at 42% and Buffalo at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Bowling Green Falcons 24, Buffalo Bulls 31
Buffalo Bulls won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Bulls -3): Buffalo Bulls covered.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Buffalo Bulls closed at -154 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Bowling Green Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Bowling Green Falcons 42%, Buffalo Bulls 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 9:03 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 3rd & 4 at BUF 40Trey Johnson 40 Yd pass from Jay Kastantin (Travis Kenner Kick)Bowling Green Falcons 52% → 65% (+13 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:29 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 3rd & 10 at BGSU 14No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #5 C.Walker caught at BGU00, for 14 yards to the BGU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen…Buffalo Bulls 38% → 53% (+14 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:17 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 3rd & 4 at BUF 42Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass intercepted by #15 S.Vessah at BUF46 broken up by #97 C.Climes, End Of PlayBuffalo Bulls 50% → 62% (+12 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:51 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 3rd & 10 at BUF 46No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 11 yards to the BUF35 (#23 M.Bradley), fumble by #7 J.Wright recovered by BGU #5 E.George at BUF35 #5 E.George r…Bowling Green Falcons 43% → 57% (+13 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:18 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 1st & 10 at BUF 27No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 73 yards gain to the BGU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:18, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #…Buffalo Bulls 73% → 88% (+15 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Buffalo Bulls won after falling as low as 28% (Q2 3:32).
Game DNA
| Bowling Green | Points added | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7 | Passingdropbacks | -1.1 |
| -4.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.1 |
| +8.9 | Explosive plays4 plays · 4 plays | +10.6 |
| -5.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -5.5 |
| +0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.8 |
| +4.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 3 of 4 | +4.3 |
| +1.2 | All plays | +5.0 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 5.0 points to Buffalo Bulls. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Buffalo Bulls closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Bowling Green Falcons before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bowling Green +4.5 (-110)
Bowling Green +3 (-115)
Buffalo -187 62%
Buffalo -154 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts167
- Completion %66.5%56th
- Passing yards1,201144th
- Yards per attempt7.2135th
- TD–INT7–4
- Rushing yards332135th
- Season line94 carries, 332 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards269210th
- Season line26 catches, 269 yds
- Tackles669th
- Attempts164
- Completion %48.2%256th
- Passing yards860209th
- Yards per attempt5.2256th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards66115th
- Season line118 carries, 661 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards44156th
- Season line37 catches, 441 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles5920th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Bowling Green | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBowling Green offense vs Buffalo defense | 38.6%124th | 46.7%114th |
| Early-down success rateBuffalo offense vs Bowling Green defense | 46.5%113th | 34.0%138th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBowling Green offense vs Buffalo defense | 40.0%73rd | 35.5%34th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuffalo offense vs Bowling Green defense | 35.8%38th | 32.5%112th |
| Explosive play rateBowling Green offense vs Buffalo defense | 4.0%132nd | 5.0%18th |
| Explosive play rateBuffalo offense vs Bowling Green defense | 8.0%103rd | 4.0%133rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 49.6%82nd-highest | 49.1%85th-highest |
On 3rd down Bowling Green converts 40.0% (73rd) against a Buffalo defense allowing 35.5% (34th).
On 3rd down Buffalo converts 32.5% (112th) against a Bowling Green defense allowing 35.8% (38th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Bowling Green | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Eddie George | Pete Lembo |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 6–13 | 18–14 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 6–13 | 51–43 |
| Offensive coordinator | Greg Nosal | Tony Tokarz |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Bowden | Brian Dougherty |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Bowling Green won 2 and Buffalo 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Buffalo 28, Bowling Green 3 Buffalo won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 14 Bowling Green won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Buffalo 38, Bowling Green 7 Buffalo won | ||
| Oct 30, 2021 | Bowling Green 56, Buffalo 44 Bowling Green won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Bowling Green Falcons
- Bowling Green Falcons team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos (Oct 31)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Bowling Green Falcons 24, Miami (OH) RedHawks 20 (Oct 3)
Buffalo Bulls
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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