Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Final — September 17, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41
Buffalo Bills won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Bills -5.5): Buffalo Bills covered.
- Combined score 72 vs the closing total of 54.5: Over.
- Buffalo Bills closed at -242 on the moneyline (a 68% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Lions (1-0) visited the Bills (1-0) at Highmark Stadium on Thursday, September 17 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 2.
The Lions have the 16th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 14th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bills have the 5th-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When the Lions have the ball, a 16th-ranked offense (0.000 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.069 allowed); when the Bills have it, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.229) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.031 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Lions offense is at 45.2% (13th) and the Bills offense at 40.4% (24th). Through the air, the Lions average +0.012 EPA per dropback (18th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 19th; the Bills average +0.513 (4th) against a Lions pass defense ranked 13th. The Lions score 31.0 points per game (8th) and allow 30.0 (22nd); the Bills score 36.0 (5th) and allow 31.0 (23rd).
Josh Allen has a 44.4% success rate (18th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jared Goff's 40.5% (22nd). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.558 EPA to Goff's +0.012, with 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Goff's 2 and 0.
The Lions are 1-0 and 0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-30 win over the Saints. The Bills are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 36-31 win over the Texans. Both teams are on a short week.
The Bills closed as 5.5-point favorites at home against the Lions. The spread opened at Bills -3.5. The total closed at 54.5, up from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lions +199, Bills -242) prices the Lions at 32% and the Bills at 68%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Lions2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks41
- Success rate40.5%22nd
- EPA per dropback+0.01218th
- Completion %66.7%16th
- CPOE−2.922nd
- Yards per attempt5.328th
- TD–INT2–0
- Sack rate2.4%6th
- Dropbacks32
- Success rate44.4%18th
- EPA per dropback+0.5583rd
- Completion %69.0%14th
- CPOE+8.17th
- Yards per attempt11.52nd
- TD–INT2–0
- Sack rate6.2%18th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Lions wide receivers with 67 receiving yards (21st of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 35.9%. Jahmyr Gibbs has 156 rushing yards on 29 carries (2nd of 47 qualified running backs). DJ Moore leads the Bills wide receivers with 100 receiving yards (6th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.6%. James Cook has 57 rushing yards on 13 carries (19th of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries29
- Rush yards1562nd
- Yards per carry5.410th
- EPA per rush+0.05017th
- Rush success rate55.2%7th
- Targets / catches14 / 10
- Receiving yards6721st
- Target share35.9%3rd
- Yards per target4.863rd
- EPA per target+0.05856th
- Targets / catches8 / 5
- Receiving yards4812th
- Target share20.5%10th
- Yards per target6.021st
- EPA per target+0.38012th
- Carries13
- Rush yards5719th
- Yards per carry4.424th
- EPA per rush−0.00720th
- Rush success rate38.5%30th
- Targets / catches8 / 5
- Receiving yards1006th
- Target share28.6%11th
- Yards per target12.516th
- EPA per target+0.79720th
- Targets / catches6 / 5
- Receiving yards1301st
- Target share21.4%8th
- Yards per target21.71st
- EPA per target+1.2734th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLions offense vs Bills defense | 46.7%11th | 45.5%19th |
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Lions defense | 39.4%7th | 41.5%22nd |
| Early-down EPA per playLions offense vs Bills defense | +0.02815th | +0.08922nd |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Lions defense | −0.02416th | +0.2425th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLions offense vs Bills defense | 38.5%16th | 43.8%20th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Lions defense | 47.1%23rd | 33.3%18th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playLions offense vs Bills defense | −0.12718th | −0.23214th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Lions defense | −0.37110th | +0.8004th |
| Red-zone TD rateLions offense vs Bills defense | 80.0%9th | 80.0%20th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Lions defense | 80.0%20th | 33.3%27th |
| Red-zone success rateLions offense vs Bills defense | 52.9%10th | 45.5%16th |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Lions defense | 58.3%26th | 12.5%31st |
On early downs the Lions succeed on 46.7% of plays (11th) against a Bills defense that allows 45.5% (19th); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (16th) against a defense allowing 43.8% (20th). On early downs the Bills succeed on 41.5% of plays (22nd) against a Lions defense that allows 39.4% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (18th) against a defense allowing 47.1% (23rd). The Lions score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (9th). The Bills score touchdowns on 33.3% of red-zone trips (27th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Campbell | Joe Brady |
| Offensive coordinator | Drew Petzing | Pete Carmichael |
| Defensive coordinator | Kelvin Sheppard | Jim Leonhard |
| Offense tendencies | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | 0.5%10th-highest | 1.1%9th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 56.2%22nd-highest | 63.5%13th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 50.0%21st-highest | 58.5%12th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 35.6%32nd-highest | 49.0%23rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 1.4%29th-highest | 2.0%23rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 33.714th-slowest | 31.323rd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 7.5%28th | 36.7%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 2.5%27th | 20.0%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 22.6%2nd | 11.1%12th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 2.4%6th | 6.1%15th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 1.37%9th | 0.00%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 73.02nd-most | 51.024th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 45.7% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Defense | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 7.9%10th | 7.1%13th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 17.5%21st | 20.5%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 10.5%20th | 10.3%19th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 9.1%14th | 9.7%17th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 3.49%10th | 2.74%14th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.5%18th | 21.4%7th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.5%24th | 9.4%7th |
The Lions pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.5% pass rate over expected, 10th-highest), while the Bills sit at 1.1% (9th-highest). In neutral situations the Lions take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Bills 31.3, so the Bills play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Lions have gone for it 0 of 1 times and the Bills 1 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Christian Mahogany GOutHip
- D.J. Reed CBQuestionableFoot
- T.J. Sanders DEQuestionableKnee
- Cole Bishop SQuestionableKnee
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Lions have 4 days between games and the Bills 4; both are on a short week. The Lions travel about 219 miles.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
LionsBillsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Lions won 0 and the Bills 3. In the most recent meeting (December 15, 2024), the Bills won 48-42; the Bills averaged +0.480 EPA per play; the Lions averaged +0.258 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2024 | Bills 48, Lions 42 Bills won | Lions -2.5 Bills covered | 55.5 over | Bills +0.480 · Lions +0.258 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | Bills 28, Lions 25 Bills won | Bills -10 Lions covered | 54 under | Bills +0.100 · Lions +0.035 |
| Dec 16, 2018 | Lions 13, Bills 14 Bills won | Bills -2.5 Lions covered | 40 under | Bills −0.014 · Lions +0.051 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Lions +3.5 (-109)
Lions +5.5 (-114)
Bills -181 62%
Bills -242 68%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 (Sep 13)
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