New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions Preview & Odds — November 15, 2026

Matchup preview

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Odds and line movement

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 14

• Patriots +2.5+108Novig
• Lions -2.5-111Novig
• Over 49.5-104Novig
• Under 49.5-102Novig
• Patriots+133Novig
• Lions-135Novig

Players to watch

DeMario Douglas has 434 receiving yards for the Patriots (25th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.4%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 399 rushing yards on 102 carries (22nd of 41 qualified running backs). Amon-Ra St. Brown has 657 receiving yards for the Lions (9th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 32.0%. Jahmyr Gibbs has 847 rushing yards on 177 carries (3rd of 41 qualified running backs).

Patriots

RB · Rhamondre Stevenson · Questionable

• Carries102
• Rush yards39922nd
• Yards per carry3.927th
• EPA per rush−0.05219th
• Rush success rate39.2%22nd

WR · DeMario Douglas

• Targets / catches46 / 31
• Receiving yards43425th
• Target share17.4%51st
• Yards per target9.419th
• EPA per target+0.5429th

TE · Hunter Henry

• Targets / catches37 / 32
• Receiving yards36112th
• Target share14.0%23rd
• Yards per target9.83rd
• EPA per target+0.6033rd

Lions

RB · Jahmyr Gibbs

• Carries177
• Rush yards8473rd
• Yards per carry4.810th
• EPA per rush−0.01614th
• Rush success rate48.0%3rd

WR · Amon-Ra St. Brown · Questionable

• Targets / catches86 / 61
• Receiving yards6579th
• Target share32.0%5th
• Yards per target7.648th
• EPA per target+0.28134th

TE · Sam LaPorta

• Targets / catches49 / 35
• Receiving yards3998th
• Target share18.2%10th
• Yards per target8.114th
• EPA per target+0.6792nd

Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).

Success by situation

On early downs the Patriots succeed on 44.8% of plays (12th) against a Lions defense that allows 42.2% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 41.5% (12th) against a defense allowing 44.9% (26th). On early downs the Lions succeed on 50.4% of plays (2nd) against a Patriots defense that allows 44.6% (22nd); on 3rd down they convert 37.2% (21st) against a defense allowing 37.6% (11th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 56.0% of red-zone trips (20th). The Lions score touchdowns on 63.6% of red-zone trips (12th).

Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.

Coaching and tendencies

The Patriots run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.9% pass rate over expected, 13th-highest), while the Lions sit at −2.5% (19th-highest). In neutral situations the Patriots take 33.1 seconds between snaps and the Lions 32.4, so the Lions play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Patriots have gone for it 6 of 8 times and the Lions 6 of 7.

Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.

EPA rank trend

Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Patriots won 1 and the Lions 1. In the most recent meeting (October 9, 2022), the Patriots won 29-0; the Lions averaged −0.436 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged +0.079 EPA per play.

The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.