Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Final — November 9, 2026
BUFStarting quarterbacksexpected startersMIN
BUFOffense2026 regular season to dateMINBUFDefenseMINBUFRecent formMINBUFHome and roadseason to dateMINInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelMINBUFKey injuriesMINAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bills (6-1) visited the Vikings (6-1) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday, November 9 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 9.
The Bills have the 2nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 23rd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings have the 29th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When the Bills have the ball, a 2nd-ranked offense (+0.173 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.169 allowed); when the Vikings have it, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.096) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.063 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bills offense is at 49.0% (4th) and the Vikings offense at 37.3% (30th). Through the air, the Bills average +0.291 EPA per dropback (1st) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 1st; the Vikings average −0.016 (24th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 24th. The Bills score 33.3 points per game (1st) and allow 25.9 (24th); the Vikings score 20.0 (27th) and allow 13.3 (1st).
Over the last five games, the Bills rank 6th on offense and 20th on defense by EPA per play; the Vikings rank 29th and 2nd.
Josh Allen has a 50.2% success rate (8th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Carson Wentz's 40.0% (30th). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.303 EPA to Wentz's +0.076, with 11 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Wentz's 3 and 0. Carson Wentz is in line to start in place of Kyler Murray, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Bills are 6-1 and 5-2 against the spread; their last game was a 36-10 win over the Ravens. The Vikings are 6-1 and 4-3 against the spread; their last game was a 19-15 loss to the Lions.
The Bills closed as 3.5-point road favorites, with the Vikings getting the points at home. The spread opened at Bills -3. The total closed at 45.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bills -192, Vikings +161) prices the Bills at 63% and the Vikings at 37%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Bills 23, Minnesota Vikings 6
Buffalo Bills won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Vikings +3.5): Buffalo Bills covered.
- Combined score 29 vs the closing total of 45.5: Under.
- Buffalo Bills closed at -192 on the moneyline (a 63% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Buffalo Bills.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Bills 63%, Minnesota Vikings 37%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:46 — Buffalo Bills ball, 3rd & 23 at MIN 36(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN -7. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 47 for 54 yards (68-T.Grable).Minnesota Vikings 38% → 47% (+9 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:30 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 1st & 10 at MIN 4711-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-15-G.Rousseau at MIN 44.Buffalo Bills 53% → 67% (+13 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:17 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 1st & 10 at BUF 3711-C.Wentz pass deep right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Williams at BUF 11. 42-D.Williams to BUF 11 for no gain (87-T.Hockenson).Buffalo Bills 66% → 74% (+9 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:08 — Buffalo Bills ball, 3rd & 8 at BUF 25(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-T.Johnson to MIN 39 for 36 yards (29-Jac.Thomas).Buffalo Bills 73% → 82% (+9 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:10 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 2nd & 5 at BUF 47(Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 34. 8-T.Bernard to BUF 39 for 5 yards (75-B.O'Neill).Buffalo Bills 79% → 88% (+9 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Bills | Points added | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 | Passingdropbacks | -19.5 |
| -5.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.2 |
| +12.2 | Explosive plays6 plays · 5 plays | +5.0 |
| -4.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -15.1 |
| +1.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.7 |
| -2.9 | Penalties8 for 62 yds · 4 for 20 yds | +0.5 |
| -1.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 0 of 1 | -2.0 |
| -4.6 | All plays | -27.6 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 15.6 points to Buffalo Bills. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Buffalo Bills closed as the market favourite at 63% and won.
The line moved toward Buffalo Bills before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bills -3 (-102)
Bills -3.5 (-102)
Vikings +130 42%
Vikings +161 37%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Khalil Shakir has 344 receiving yards for the Bills (30th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.7%. James Cook has 707 rushing yards on 138 carries (5th of 42 qualified running backs). Justin Jefferson has 335 receiving yards for the Vikings (33rd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.0%. Aaron Jones has 458 rushing yards on 110 carries (16th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries138
- Rush yards7075th
- Yards per carry5.16th
- EPA per rush+0.0547th
- Rush success rate50.7%3rd
- Targets / catches38 / 27
- Receiving yards34430th
- Target share19.7%38th
- Yards per target9.123rd
- EPA per target+0.40427th
- Targets / catches35 / 27
- Receiving yards4016th
- Target share18.1%12th
- Yards per target11.51st
- EPA per target+0.4657th
- Carries110
- Rush yards45816th
- Yards per carry4.221st
- EPA per rush−0.18934th
- Rush success rate35.5%30th
- Targets / catches40 / 28
- Receiving yards33533rd
- Target share27.0%11th
- Yards per target8.432nd
- EPA per target+0.51814th
- Targets / catches37 / 31
- Receiving yards29515th
- Target share20.4%7th
- Yards per target8.016th
- EPA per target+0.6743rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bills | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Vikings defense | 48.1%6th | 38.3%2nd |
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Bills defense | 45.9%28th | 35.0%31st |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Vikings defense | +0.1344th | −0.1101st |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Bills defense | +0.06927th | −0.08926th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Vikings defense | 45.3%5th | 29.7%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Bills defense | 42.4%22nd | 37.1%25th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Vikings defense | +0.2622nd | −0.3246th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Bills defense | −0.1429th | −0.14724th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Vikings defense | 72.4%3rd | 26.7%1st |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Bills defense | 67.9%23rd | 52.9%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Vikings defense | 45.8%10th | 29.8%1st |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Bills defense | 47.6%23rd | 38.6%23rd |
On early downs the Bills succeed on 48.1% of plays (6th) against a Vikings defense that allows 38.3% (2nd); on 3rd down they convert 45.3% (5th) against a defense allowing 29.7% (2nd). On early downs the Vikings succeed on 35.0% of plays (31st) against a Bills defense that allows 45.9% (28th); on 3rd down they convert 37.1% (25th) against a defense allowing 42.4% (22nd). The Bills score touchdowns on 72.4% of red-zone trips (3rd). The Vikings score touchdowns on 52.9% of red-zone trips (23rd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bills | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Brady | Kevin O'Connell |
| Offensive coordinator | Pete Carmichael | Wes Phillips |
| Defensive coordinator | Jim Leonhard | Brian Flores |
| Offense tendencies | Bills | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.9%16th-highest | −3.0%22nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 56.2%28th-highest | 58.0%23rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 51.0%26th-highest | 47.8%30th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 44.9%32nd-highest | 60.5%18th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 3.8%24th-highest | 5.2%16th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 31.528th-slowest | 33.99th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 22.3%1st | 16.2%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 14.3%1st | 9.5%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 13.4%3rd | 8.3%19th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 5.4%11th | 9.0%30th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.56%26th | 1.24%9th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 60.718th-most | 57.128th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 7 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Defense | Bills | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 5.1%26th | 10.6%1st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 16.9%20th | 11.0%2nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 10.1%24th | 6.2%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 9.3%16th | 12.4%30th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.96%14th | 2.71%4th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 18.8%4th | 25.1%1st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 13.5%7th | 15.2%13th |
The Bills run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.9% pass rate over expected, 16th-highest), while the Vikings sit at −3.0% (22nd-highest). In neutral situations the Bills take 31.5 seconds between snaps and the Vikings 33.9, so the Bills play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bills have gone for it 7 of 7 times and the Vikings 5 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Bills won 1 and the Vikings 1. In the most recent meeting (November 13, 2022), the Vikings won 33-30; the Bills averaged −0.057 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged +0.069 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2022 | Vikings 33, Bills 30 Vikings won | Bills -6.5 Vikings covered | 47 over | Bills −0.057 · Vikings +0.069 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | Bills 27, Vikings 6 Bills won | Vikings -16.5 Bills covered | 41 under | Bills +0.007 · Vikings −0.373 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Nov 15)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Buffalo Bills 36 (Nov 1)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (Oct 12)
Minnesota Vikings
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results