Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos Final — October 15, 2026
SEAStarting quarterbacksexpected startersDEN
SEAOffense2026 regular season to dateDENSEADefenseDENSEARecent formDENSEAHome and roadseason to dateDENInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SEARest & travelDENSEAKey injuriesDENAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Seahawks (3-2) visited the Broncos (3-2) at Empower Field at Mile High on Thursday, October 15 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 6.
The Seahawks have the 25th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 2nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 24th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense. When the Seahawks have the ball, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.073 EPA per play) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.025 allowed); when the Broncos have it, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.066) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.133 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Seahawks offense is at 41.5% (22nd) and the Broncos offense at 39.9% (26th). Through the air, the Seahawks average +0.087 EPA per dropback (16th) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 4th; the Broncos average −0.083 (25th) against a Seahawks pass defense ranked 2nd. The Seahawks score 26.8 points per game (8th) and allow 21.0 (8th); the Broncos score 19.4 (26th) and allow 22.2 (13th).
Sam Darnold has a 44.5% success rate (21st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 40.1% (29th). Per dropback, Darnold is at −0.101 EPA to Nix's −0.096, with 7 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Nix's 6 and 3.
The Seahawks are 3-2 and 1-2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 32-29 loss to the 49ers. The Broncos are 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 23-17 win over the Chargers. Both teams are on a short week.
The Seahawks closed as 2.5-point road favorites, with the Broncos getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 40.5, down from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Seahawks -148, Broncos +125) prices the Seahawks at 57% and the Broncos at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17
Denver Broncos won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Denver Broncos +2.5): Denver Broncos covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 40.5: Under.
- Denver Broncos closed at +125 on the moneyline (a 43% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Seattle Seahawks 57%, Denver Broncos 43%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 2:42 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 2nd & 16 at SEA 20(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 48 for 32 yards (22-B.Jones).Seattle Seahawks 29% → 47% (+17 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:31 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 3rd & 1 at DEN 39(No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).Denver Broncos 54% → 86% (+32 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:25 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 2nd & 10 at DEN 40(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to DEN 23 for 17 yards (29-J.McMillian).Seattle Seahawks 33% → 47% (+14 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 7:17 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 3rd & 7 at SEA 28(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at SEA 43. 29-J.McMillian ran ob at SEA 43 for no gain.Denver Broncos 46% → 74% (+28 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 4:57 — Denver Broncos ball, 4th & 2 at SEA 353-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined.Denver Broncos 63% → 100% (+37 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
Denver Broncos won after falling as low as 36% (OT 7:58).
Game DNA
| Seahawks | Points added | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| -11.1 | Passingdropbacks | -8.7 |
| -2.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.3 |
| +14.4 | Explosive plays9 plays · 2 plays | +2.2 |
| -10.9 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.1 |
| -0.6 | Penalties7 for 75 yds · 8 for 42 yds | +0.6 |
| +3.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 2 | +2.7 |
| -6.4 | All plays | -4.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.2 points to Seattle Seahawks. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Seattle Seahawks closed as the market favourite at 57% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Seahawks -2.5 (-117)
Seahawks -2.5 (-115)
Broncos +122 43%
Broncos +125 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 583 receiving yards for the Seahawks (1st of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 35.2%. Emanuel Wilson has 251 rushing yards on 73 carries (21st of 41 qualified running backs). Jaylen Waddle has 204 receiving yards for the Broncos (45th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.1%. J.K. Dobbins has 229 rushing yards on 64 carries (27th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries73
- Rush yards25121st
- Yards per carry3.435th
- EPA per rush−0.23636th
- Rush success rate34.2%32nd
- Targets / catches50 / 37
- Receiving yards5831st
- Target share35.2%1st
- Yards per target11.77th
- EPA per target+0.69413th
- Targets / catches20 / 12
- Receiving yards12226th
- Target share14.1%24th
- Yards per target6.125th
- EPA per target−0.39335th
- Carries64
- Rush yards22927th
- Yards per carry3.631st
- EPA per rush−0.16531st
- Rush success rate32.8%36th
- Targets / catches31 / 18
- Receiving yards20445th
- Target share21.1%32nd
- Yards per target6.664th
- EPA per target+0.05464th
- Targets / catches17 / 10
- Receiving yards12127th
- Target share11.6%30th
- Yards per target7.119th
- EPA per target+0.10226th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Seahawks | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSeahawks offense vs Broncos defense | 43.3%15th | 37.7%3rd |
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Seahawks defense | 37.3%2nd | 38.9%28th |
| Early-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Broncos defense | −0.05423rd | +0.01218th |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.1332nd | −0.01319th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSeahawks offense vs Broncos defense | 29.8%31st | 45.8%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Seahawks defense | 29.4%3rd | 34.4%27th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Broncos defense | −0.15527th | −0.1958th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.4163rd | −0.32832nd |
| Red-zone TD rateSeahawks offense vs Broncos defense | 61.1%16th | 50.0%4th |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Seahawks defense | 81.8%31st | 60.0%18th |
| Red-zone success rateSeahawks offense vs Broncos defense | 41.5%19th | 39.5%13th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Seahawks defense | 46.4%24th | 35.7%28th |
On early downs the Seahawks succeed on 43.3% of plays (15th) against a Broncos defense that allows 37.7% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 29.8% (31st) against a defense allowing 45.8% (26th). On early downs the Broncos succeed on 38.9% of plays (28th) against a Seahawks defense that allows 37.3% (2nd); on 3rd down they convert 34.4% (27th) against a defense allowing 29.4% (3rd). The Seahawks score touchdowns on 61.1% of red-zone trips (16th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 60.0% of red-zone trips (18th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Seahawks | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Macdonald | Sean Payton |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Fleury | Davis Webb |
| Defensive coordinator | Aden Durde | Vance Joseph |
| Offense tendencies | Seahawks | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −4.4%26th-highest | −3.3%22nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 55.1%28th-highest | 60.8%16th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 48.5%30th-highest | 54.6%16th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 46.9%30th-highest | 67.1%9th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 1.4%29th-highest | 5.7%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 34.83rd-slowest | 32.025th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 17.9%9th | 10.2%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 10.6%6th | 6.6%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 8.3%20th | 7.3%23rd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.8%20th | 3.4%4th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 3.06%29th | 1.75%16th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 58.822nd-most | 56.629th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 8 |
| Defense | Seahawks | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 7.6%8th | 7.0%13th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 8.3%1st | 14.5%13th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 5.3%3rd | 7.5%9th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 7.8%6th | 10.9%24th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 3.00%3rd | 2.17%13th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 22.4%2nd | 19.4%5th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.1%29th | 10.5%1st |
The Seahawks run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.4% pass rate over expected, 26th-highest), while the Broncos sit at −3.3% (22nd-highest). In neutral situations the Seahawks take 34.8 seconds between snaps and the Broncos 32.0, so the Broncos play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Seahawks have gone for it 5 of 6 times and the Broncos 1 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Seahawks won 2 and the Broncos 1. In the most recent meeting (September 8, 2024), the Seahawks won 26-20; the Broncos averaged −0.311 EPA per play; the Seahawks averaged −0.080 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2024 | Broncos 20, Seahawks 26 Seahawks won | Seahawks -6.5 Broncos covered | 42 over | Broncos −0.311 · Seahawks −0.080 |
| Sep 12, 2022 | Broncos 16, Seahawks 17 Seahawks won | Broncos -6 Seahawks covered | 44 under | Broncos +0.084 · Seahawks +0.020 |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Seahawks 24, Broncos 27 Broncos won | Broncos -3 push | 42.5 over | Broncos −0.109 · Seahawks −0.069 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle Seahawks team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
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