Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Preview & Odds — November 1, 2026
KCStarting quarterbacksexpected startersDEN
KCOffense2026 regular season to dateDENKCDefenseDENKCRecent formDENKCHome and roadseason to dateDENRest & travelrest and travel
KCRest & travelDENAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Matchup preview
The Chiefs (5-1) visit the Broncos (5-2) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 8.
The Chiefs have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 6th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 22nd-ranked offense and the 7th-ranked defense. When the Chiefs have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.118 EPA per play) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.049 allowed); when the Broncos have it, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.041) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.056 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chiefs offense is at 47.5% (8th) and the Broncos offense at 37.9% (29th). Through the air, the Chiefs average +0.130 EPA per dropback (10th) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 4th; the Broncos average −0.040 (25th) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 7th. The Chiefs score 23.8 points per game (14th) and allow 17.2 (2nd); the Broncos score 20.6 (24th) and allow 20.1 (7th).
Over the last five games, the Chiefs rank 8th on offense and 14th on defense by EPA per play; the Broncos rank 21st and 4th.
Patrick Mahomes has a 49.3% success rate (10th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 37.3% (33rd). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.135 EPA to Nix's −0.049, with 9 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Nix's 7 and 3.
The Chiefs are 5-1 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. The Broncos are 5-2 and 5-2 against the spread; their last game was a 30-16 win over the Cardinals.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point road favorites, with the Broncos getting the points at home. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 41, down from 42 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Chiefs -120, Broncos -100) prices the Chiefs at 52% and the Broncos at 48%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Chiefs -1.5 (-109)
Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Broncos +105 47%
Broncos -100 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 28
- Chiefs -1.5+108Kalshi
- Broncos +1.5-110DraftKings
- Over 41-105BetMGM
- Under 41-108BetRivers
- Chiefs-108Novig
- Broncos+104Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Xavier Worthy has 217 receiving yards for the Chiefs (56th of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.6%. Kenneth Walker III has 701 rushing yards on 120 carries (2nd of 39 qualified running backs). Jaylen Waddle has 276 receiving yards for the Broncos (41st of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.0%. J.K. Dobbins has 293 rushing yards on 87 carries (25th of 39 qualified running backs).
- Carries120
- Rush yards7012nd
- Yards per carry5.81st
- EPA per rush+0.0967th
- Rush success rate45.0%10th
- Targets / catches35 / 24
- Receiving yards21756th
- Target share19.6%38th
- Yards per target6.263rd
- EPA per target−0.02464th
- Targets / catches35 / 24
- Receiving yards3435th
- Target share19.6%7th
- Yards per target9.82nd
- EPA per target+0.5555th
- Carries87
- Rush yards29325th
- Yards per carry3.433rd
- EPA per rush−0.17128th
- Rush success rate29.9%37th
- Targets / catches45 / 26
- Receiving yards27641st
- Target share23.0%23rd
- Yards per target6.164th
- EPA per target+0.02360th
- Targets / catches22 / 13
- Receiving yards13631st
- Target share11.2%30th
- Yards per target6.228th
- EPA per target+0.03229th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Broncos defense | 47.4%7th | 36.9%3rd |
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Chiefs defense | 38.4%4th | 37.3%28th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Broncos defense | +0.08310th | −0.01112th |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.0854th | +0.01915th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Broncos defense | 40.0%15th | 42.5%21st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Chiefs defense | 41.9%20th | 31.5%31st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Broncos defense | +0.1577th | −0.2447th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Chiefs defense | +0.13824th | −0.33332nd |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Broncos defense | 56.5%18th | 45.5%5th |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Chiefs defense | 31.2%2nd | 63.2%13th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Broncos defense | 36.5%28th | 34.8%7th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Chiefs defense | 26.7%2nd | 37.3%26th |
On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 47.4% of plays (7th) against a Broncos defense that allows 36.9% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 40.0% (15th) against a defense allowing 42.5% (21st). On early downs the Broncos succeed on 37.3% of plays (28th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 38.4% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 31.5% (31st) against a defense allowing 41.9% (20th). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 56.5% of red-zone trips (18th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 63.2% of red-zone trips (13th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Andy Reid | Sean Payton |
| Offensive coordinator | Eric Bieniemy | Davis Webb |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Spagnuolo | Vance Joseph |
| Offense tendencies | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.9% | 3.0%4th-highest | −1.9%16th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 59.6%18th-highest | 59.6%19th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 55.1%15th-highest | 53.3%23rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 62.0%17th-highest | 66.2%10th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 0.3%32nd-highest | 5.1%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.223rd-slowest | 32.718th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 18.7%7th | 10.7%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 7.9%21st | 7.1%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 14.7%2nd | 7.0%27th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 3.3%3rd | 3.8%6th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 1.13%5th | 1.26%9th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 58.824th-most | 56.130th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.8% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 9 |
| Defense | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 3.4%30th | 7.1%8th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 13.5%10th | 13.1%8th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 7.2%9th | 6.9%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 7.3%5th | 10.9%28th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 2.34%10th | 2.09%12th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.5% | 13.9%21st | 21.7%2nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.5% | 14.8%14th | 10.3%1st |
The Chiefs pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.0% pass rate over expected, 4th-highest), while the Broncos sit at −1.9% (16th-highest). In neutral situations the Chiefs take 32.2 seconds between snaps and the Broncos 32.7, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chiefs have gone for it 9 of 11 times and the Broncos 1 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Chiefs won 18 and the Broncos 5. In the most recent meeting (September 14, 2026), the Chiefs won 31-10; the Broncos averaged −0.344 EPA per play; the Chiefs averaged +0.164 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Broncos 10, Chiefs 31 Chiefs won | Chiefs -2.5 Chiefs covered | 42.5 under | Broncos −0.344 · Chiefs +0.164 |
| Dec 25, 2025 | Broncos 20, Chiefs 13 Broncos won | Broncos -13.5 Chiefs covered | 37.5 under | Broncos +0.097 · Chiefs −0.199 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Chiefs 19, Broncos 22 Broncos won | Chiefs -3.5 Broncos covered | 44.5 under | Broncos +0.033 · Chiefs +0.045 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Chiefs 0, Broncos 38 Broncos won | Broncos -10.5 Broncos covered | 40.5 under | Broncos +0.411 · Chiefs −0.449 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Broncos 14, Chiefs 16 Chiefs won | Chiefs -7.5 Broncos covered | 42.5 under | Broncos +0.073 · Chiefs +0.003 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
Denver Broncos
More NFL games on November 1, 2026
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- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Nov 1)
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