Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks Final — October 25, 2026
KCStarting quarterbacksexpected startersSEA
KCOffense2026 regular season to dateSEAKCDefenseSEAKCRecent formSEAKCHome and roadseason to dateSEAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
KCRest & travelSEAKCKey injuriesSEAAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Chiefs (5-0) visited the Seahawks (3-3) at Lumen Field on Sunday, October 25 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 7.
The Chiefs have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 3rd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the 24th-ranked offense and the 2nd-ranked defense. When the Chiefs have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.155 EPA per play) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.135 allowed); when the Seahawks have it, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.076) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.102 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chiefs offense is at 49.3% (2nd) and the Seahawks offense at 41.1% (22nd). Through the air, the Chiefs average +0.180 EPA per dropback (8th) against a Seahawks pass defense ranked 2nd; the Seahawks average +0.042 (19th) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 3rd. The Chiefs score 28.0 points per game (5th) and allow 16.6 (2nd); the Seahawks score 24.7 (13th) and allow 20.3 (7th).
Over the last five games, the Chiefs rank 4th on offense and 4th on defense by EPA per play; the Seahawks rank 25th and 2nd.
Patrick Mahomes has a 50.9% success rate (6th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Sam Darnold's 42.2% (24th). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.187 EPA to Darnold's −0.102, with 9 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Darnold's 7 and 7.
The Chiefs are 5-0 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 22-6 win over the Chargers. The Seahawks are 3-3 and 1-3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 17-14 loss to the Broncos.
The Seahawks closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Chiefs. The spread opened at Seahawks -1.5. The total closed at 43, up from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Chiefs +136, Seahawks -160) prices the Chiefs at 41% and the Seahawks at 59%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20
Seattle Seahawks won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (Seattle Seahawks -3): Seattle Seahawks covered.
- Combined score 23 vs the closing total of 43: Under.
- Seattle Seahawks closed at -160 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Seattle Seahawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kansas City Chiefs 41%, Seattle Seahawks 59%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 11:19 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 3rd & 7 at SEA 47(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to KC 20 for 33 yards (20-N.Williams; 17-A.Gilman).Seattle Seahawks 64% → 72% (+8 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:09 — Kansas City Chiefs ball, 2nd & 10 at SEA 46(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 11-J.Royals INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Okada [3-N.Emmanwori] at SEA 34. 39-T.Okada to SEA 34 for no gain (11-J.Royals).Seattle Seahawks 65% → 74% (+10 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:49 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 3rd & 9 at KC 28(Shotgun) 14-S.DSeattle Seahawks 77% → 85% (+9 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:23 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 2nd & 3 at KC 3(Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 20-N.Williams [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC -9. 20-N.Williams to SEA 44 for 65 yards (67-C.Cross).Kansas City Chiefs 7% → 17% (+10 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:38 — Kansas City Chiefs ball, 4th & 3 at SEA 277-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.Seattle Seahawks 90% → 95% (+6 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Chiefs | Points added | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| -9.6 | Passingdropbacks | +7.7 |
| -1.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.6 |
| +9.3 | Explosive plays5 plays · 9 plays | +19.8 |
| -3.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.6 |
| -2.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.3 |
| -1.6 | Penalties2 for 15 yds · 4 for 20 yds | -3.2 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 0 · 0 of 3 | -4.6 |
| -9.1 | All plays | +9.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 17.3 points to Seattle Seahawks. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Seattle Seahawks closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
The line moved toward Seattle Seahawks before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Chiefs +1.5 (-107)
Chiefs +3 (-111)
Seahawks -130 54%
Seahawks -160 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Xavier Worthy has 206 receiving yards for the Chiefs (56th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.7%. Kenneth Walker III has 665 rushing yards on 106 carries (1st of 40 qualified running backs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 717 receiving yards for the Seahawks (1st of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 35.1%. Emanuel Wilson has 303 rushing yards on 87 carries (20th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries106
- Rush yards6651st
- Yards per carry6.31st
- EPA per rush+0.1181st
- Rush success rate48.1%7th
- Targets / catches29 / 21
- Receiving yards20656th
- Target share19.7%38th
- Yards per target7.157th
- EPA per target−0.00166th
- Targets / catches27 / 20
- Receiving yards2997th
- Target share18.4%10th
- Yards per target11.11st
- EPA per target+0.7253rd
- Carries87
- Rush yards30320th
- Yards per carry3.531st
- EPA per rush−0.19232nd
- Rush success rate35.6%28th
- Targets / catches66 / 49
- Receiving yards7171st
- Target share35.1%1st
- Yards per target10.98th
- EPA per target+0.6997th
- Targets / catches24 / 15
- Receiving yards13829th
- Target share12.8%27th
- Yards per target5.829th
- EPA per target−0.39233rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chiefs | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Seahawks defense | 49.6%3rd | 35.7%2nd |
| Early-down success rateSeahawks offense vs Chiefs defense | 37.5%3rd | 42.0%19th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Seahawks defense | +0.1187th | −0.1331st |
| Early-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.0767th | −0.05622nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Seahawks defense | 42.4%11th | 28.0%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSeahawks offense vs Chiefs defense | 35.7%9th | 32.4%29th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Seahawks defense | +0.2323rd | −0.4104th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.10110th | −0.21729th |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Seahawks defense | 56.5%16th | 84.6%32nd |
| Red-zone TD rateSeahawks offense vs Chiefs defense | 38.5%2nd | 63.2%12th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Seahawks defense | 36.5%26th | 48.5%25th |
| Red-zone success rateSeahawks offense vs Chiefs defense | 27.8%2nd | 42.9%16th |
On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 49.6% of plays (3rd) against a Seahawks defense that allows 35.7% (2nd); on 3rd down they convert 42.4% (11th) against a defense allowing 28.0% (3rd). On early downs the Seahawks succeed on 42.0% of plays (19th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 37.5% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 32.4% (29th) against a defense allowing 35.7% (9th). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 56.5% of red-zone trips (16th). The Seahawks score touchdowns on 63.2% of red-zone trips (12th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chiefs | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Andy Reid | Mike Macdonald |
| Offensive coordinator | Eric Bieniemy | Brian Fleury |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Spagnuolo | Aden Durde |
| Offense tendencies | Chiefs | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | 3.0%6th-highest | −4.1%26th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 57.6%25th-highest | 58.4%24th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 53.8%19th-highest | 51.5%27th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 59.7%18th-highest | 52.1%29th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 0.3%32nd-highest | 2.4%28th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.025th-slowest | 34.43rd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 19.6%4th | 16.3%13th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 9.5%9th | 8.9%13th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 16.3%1st | 9.0%17th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 3.4%3rd | 7.3%23rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 0.99%5th | 3.20%30th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 60.619th-most | 62.313th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 7 of 9 | 5 of 7 |
| Defense | Chiefs | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 4.0%27th | 7.5%8th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 11.9%5th | 7.6%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 6.2%5th | 4.6%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 8.0%11th | 7.0%5th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.54%6th | 2.53%7th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 14.9%21st | 21.6%2nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 13.8%6th | 21.1%32nd |
The Chiefs pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.0% pass rate over expected, 6th-highest), while the Seahawks sit at −4.1% (26th-highest). In neutral situations the Chiefs take 32.0 seconds between snaps and the Seahawks 34.4, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chiefs have gone for it 7 of 9 times and the Seahawks 5 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Chiefs won 1 and the Seahawks 1. In the most recent meeting (December 24, 2022), the Chiefs won 24-10; the Chiefs averaged +0.015 EPA per play; the Seahawks averaged −0.224 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24, 2022 | Seahawks 10, Chiefs 24 Chiefs won | Chiefs -10.5 Chiefs covered | 50.5 under | Chiefs +0.015 · Seahawks −0.224 |
| Dec 23, 2018 | Chiefs 31, Seahawks 38 Seahawks won | Chiefs -1 Seahawks covered | 54 over | Chiefs +0.190 · Seahawks +0.266 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle Seahawks team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (Oct 15)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
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