Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Final — October 11, 2026
DENStarting quarterbacksexpected startersLAC
DENOffense2026 regular season to dateLACDENDefenseLACDENRecent formLACDENHome and roadseason to dateLACInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DENRest & travelLACDENKey injuriesLACAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Broncos (2-2) visited the Chargers (0-4) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 5.
The Broncos have the 16th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 23rd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Chargers have the 32nd-ranked offense and the 12th-ranked defense. When the Broncos have the ball, a 16th-ranked offense (−0.015 EPA per play) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.007 allowed); when the Chargers have it, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.159) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.063 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Broncos offense is at 41.5% (22nd) and the Chargers offense at 40.4% (25th). Through the air, the Broncos average −0.015 EPA per dropback (22nd) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 19th; the Chargers average −0.151 (29th) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 15th. The Broncos score 18.5 points per game (27th) and allow 23.5 (17th); the Chargers score 16.8 (29th) and allow 26.5 (24th).
Bo Nix has a 42.7% success rate (23rd of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 38.5% (29th). Per dropback, Nix is at −0.030 EPA to Herbert's −0.149, with 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Herbert's 4 and 6.
The Broncos are 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 24-14 loss to the 49ers. The Chargers are 0-4 and 0-3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 30-23 loss to the Seahawks.
The Broncos closed as 3.5-point road favorites, with the Chargers getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 42.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Broncos -186, Chargers +150) prices the Broncos at 62% and the Chargers at 38%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17
Denver Broncos won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Los Angeles Chargers +3.5): Denver Broncos covered.
- Combined score 40 vs the closing total of 42.5: Under.
- Denver Broncos closed at -186 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Los Angeles Chargers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Denver Broncos 62%, Los Angeles Chargers 38%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 1:15 — Denver Broncos ball, 1st & 10 at DEN 4010-B.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (90-A.Mesidor, 45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42.Los Angeles Chargers 34% → 54% (+20 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:07 — Los Angeles Chargers ball, 1st & 10 at DEN 4228-K.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Los Angeles Chargers 54% → 70% (+16 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:08 — Denver Broncos ball, 4th & 7 at LAC 243-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.Los Angeles Chargers 69% → 82% (+12 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:33 — Los Angeles Chargers ball, 4th & 1 at LAC 4110-J.Herbert right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (51-Q.Robinson).Denver Broncos 22% → 35% (+13 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:06 — Los Angeles Chargers ball, 2nd & 10 at LAC 32(Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.Denver Broncos 52% → 79% (+28 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
Denver Broncos won after falling as low as 18% (Q4 12:05).
Game DNA
| Broncos | Points added | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 | Passingdropbacks | -8.7 |
| -4.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -15.2 |
| +4.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 5 plays | +9.9 |
| -5.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -11.8 |
| -4.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.0 |
| +2.4 | Penalties7 for 40 yds · 9 for 93 yds | -0.7 |
| -1.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 5 · 1 of 1 | +1.2 |
| -17.1 | All plays | -26.3 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 10.9 points to Denver Broncos. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Denver Broncos closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
The line moved toward Los Angeles Chargers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Broncos -3.5 (-112)
Broncos -3.5 (-107)
Chargers +160 37%
Chargers +150 38%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Jaylen Waddle has 185 receiving yards for the Broncos (44th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.8%. J.K. Dobbins has 161 rushing yards on 46 carries (30th of 46 qualified running backs). Tre Harris has 209 receiving yards for the Chargers (32nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.9%. Omarion Hampton has 238 rushing yards on 59 carries (16th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries46
- Rush yards16130th
- Yards per carry3.535th
- EPA per rush−0.16533rd
- Rush success rate26.1%44th
- Targets / catches26 / 16
- Receiving yards18544th
- Target share20.8%33rd
- Yards per target7.162nd
- EPA per target+0.04664th
- Targets / catches13 / 6
- Receiving yards6631st
- Target share10.4%31st
- Yards per target5.131st
- EPA per target+0.01326th
- Carries59
- Rush yards23816th
- Yards per carry4.026th
- EPA per rush−0.21541st
- Rush success rate42.4%20th
- Targets / catches21 / 13
- Receiving yards20932nd
- Target share17.9%46th
- Yards per target10.027th
- EPA per target+0.28047th
- Targets / catches15 / 9
- Receiving yards8628th
- Target share12.8%25th
- Yards per target5.724th
- EPA per target−0.38633rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Chargers defense | 39.5%26th | 44.2%18th |
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Broncos defense | 40.9%8th | 41.2%23rd |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Chargers defense | +0.03314th | +0.00816th |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Broncos defense | +0.09325th | −0.13729th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Chargers defense | 40.4%12th | 38.0%16th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Broncos defense | 48.3%27th | 34.6%24th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Chargers defense | −0.23028th | −0.14911th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Broncos defense | −0.2039th | −0.20325th |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Chargers defense | 70.0%10th | 60.0%13th |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Broncos defense | 46.7%6th | 63.6%12th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Chargers defense | 35.5%27th | 37.5%8th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Broncos defense | 39.0%13th | 43.2%12th |
On early downs the Broncos succeed on 39.5% of plays (26th) against a Chargers defense that allows 44.2% (18th); on 3rd down they convert 40.4% (12th) against a defense allowing 38.0% (16th). On early downs the Chargers succeed on 41.2% of plays (23rd) against a Broncos defense that allows 40.9% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 34.6% (24th) against a defense allowing 48.3% (27th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 70.0% of red-zone trips (10th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 63.6% of red-zone trips (12th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean Payton | Jim Harbaugh |
| Offensive coordinator | Davis Webb | Mike McDaniel |
| Defensive coordinator | Vance Joseph | Chris O'Leary |
| Offense tendencies | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.4%18th-highest | −10.1%31st-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 63.3%11th-highest | 59.2%20th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 57.0%14th-highest | 51.3%24th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 68.1%9th-highest | 68.6%6th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 7.1%10th-highest | 5.7%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 32.222nd-slowest | 34.36th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 11.6%27th | 14.3%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 7.2%26th | 9.0%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 7.3%21st | 10.2%13th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 3.4%4th | 8.3%26th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 1.75%17th | 3.67%30th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 56.526th-most | 61.216th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Defense | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 5.2%20th | 7.8%6th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 15.6%19th | 15.3%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.8%16th | 11.0%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.3%26th | 8.6%13th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 1.53%20th | 2.87%6th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 19.4%6th | 21.9%3rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 10.5%2nd | 21.4%32nd |
The Broncos run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.4% pass rate over expected, 18th-highest), while the Chargers sit at −10.1% (31st-highest). In neutral situations the Broncos take 32.2 seconds between snaps and the Chargers 34.3, so the Broncos play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Broncos have gone for it 0 of 6 times and the Chargers 0 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Broncos won 13 and the Chargers 9. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Broncos won 19-3; the Broncos averaged −0.185 EPA per play; the Chargers averaged −0.413 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Chargers 3, Broncos 19 Broncos won | Broncos -14.5 Broncos covered | 37.5 under | Broncos −0.185 · Chargers −0.413 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Broncos 20, Chargers 23 Chargers won | Chargers -2.5 Chargers covered | 45.5 under | Broncos −0.046 · Chargers −0.039 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Broncos 27, Chargers 34 Chargers won | Chargers -3 Chargers covered | 41.5 over | Broncos +0.194 · Chargers +0.219 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Chargers 23, Broncos 16 Chargers won | Chargers -3 Chargers covered | 37 over | Broncos −0.061 · Chargers +0.086 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Chargers 9, Broncos 16 Broncos won | Broncos -3.5 Broncos covered | 39.5 under | Broncos −0.048 · Chargers −0.137 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (Oct 15)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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