Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals Final — October 25, 2026
DENStarting quarterbacksexpected startersARI
DENOffense2026 regular season to dateARIDENDefenseARIDENRecent formARIDENHome and roadseason to dateARIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DENRest & travelARIDENKey injuriesARIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Broncos (4-2) visited the Cardinals (2-4) at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 7.
The Broncos have the 25th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have the 17th-ranked offense and the 28th-ranked defense. When the Broncos have the ball, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.079 EPA per play) meets a 28th-ranked defense (+0.079 allowed); when the Cardinals have it, a 17th-ranked offense (−0.019) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.038 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Broncos offense is at 38.0% (28th) and the Cardinals offense at 46.4% (11th). Through the air, the Broncos average −0.101 EPA per dropback (24th) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 30th; the Cardinals average +0.016 (20th) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 5th. The Broncos score 19.0 points per game (26th) and allow 20.8 (10th); the Cardinals score 21.0 (24th) and allow 29.7 (31st).
Over the last five games, the Broncos rank 19th on offense and 9th on defense by EPA per play; the Cardinals rank 21st and 30th.
Jacoby Brissett has a 50.0% success rate (8th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 37.9% (31st). Per dropback, Brissett is at +0.007 EPA to Nix's −0.113, with 9 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions to Nix's 6 and 3.
The Broncos are 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; their last game was a 17-14 win over the Seahawks. The Cardinals are 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 18-16 win over the Rams.
The Broncos closed as 4.5-point road favorites, with the Cardinals getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 44.5, up from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Broncos -230, Cardinals +189) prices the Broncos at 67% and the Cardinals at 33%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16
Denver Broncos won by 14.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona Cardinals +4.5): Denver Broncos covered.
- Combined score 46 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Denver Broncos closed at -230 on the moneyline (a 67% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Denver Broncos.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Denver Broncos 67%, Arizona Cardinals 33%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 0:54 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at DEN 45(Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight left tackle pushed ob at DEN 16 for 29 yards (23-J.Barron). PENALTY on DEN-22-B.Jones, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 16.Arizona Cardinals 28% → 34% (+5 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:40 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 4th & 1 at DEN 207-J.Brissett up the middle to DEN 18 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).Arizona Cardinals 36% → 41% (+5 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:57 — Denver Broncos ball, 2nd & 7 at DEN 38(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Denver Broncos 66% → 79% (+13 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:36 — Denver Broncos ball, 1st & 10 at DEN 48(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Denver Broncos 88% → 94% (+6 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Broncos | Points added | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Passingdropbacks | -10.5 |
| -2.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.9 |
| +21.0 | Explosive plays8 plays · 7 plays | +14.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +2.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.0 |
| -0.7 | Penalties11 for 114 yds · 9 for 59 yds | +2.0 |
| -1.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 1 of 5 | -10.7 |
| +12.7 | All plays | -6.4 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.0 points to Denver Broncos. The final margin was 14.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Denver Broncos closed as the market favourite at 67% and won.
The line moved toward Denver Broncos before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Broncos -4.5 (-108)
Broncos -4.5 (-110)
Cardinals +180 34%
Cardinals +189 33%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Jaylen Waddle has 228 receiving yards for the Broncos (48th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.2%. J.K. Dobbins has 270 rushing yards on 81 carries (23rd of 40 qualified running backs). Michael Wilson has 320 receiving yards for the Cardinals (24th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.4%. Tyler Allgeier has 157 rushing yards on 53 carries (37th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries81
- Rush yards27023rd
- Yards per carry3.333rd
- EPA per rush−0.18931st
- Rush success rate28.4%37th
- Targets / catches38 / 22
- Receiving yards22848th
- Target share22.2%27th
- Yards per target6.067th
- EPA per target−0.01468th
- Targets / catches19 / 12
- Receiving yards13430th
- Target share11.1%30th
- Yards per target7.119th
- EPA per target+0.15927th
- Carries53
- Rush yards15737th
- Yards per carry3.038th
- EPA per rush−0.19833rd
- Rush success rate34.0%30th
- Targets / catches58 / 33
- Receiving yards32024th
- Target share25.4%17th
- Yards per target5.573rd
- EPA per target−0.11472nd
- Targets / catches65 / 49
- Receiving yards3613rd
- Target share28.5%2nd
- Yards per target5.630th
- EPA per target+0.19423rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Broncos | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Cardinals defense | 37.0%28th | 43.0%15th |
| Early-down success rateCardinals offense vs Broncos defense | 37.6%4th | 46.4%9th |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Cardinals defense | −0.03320th | +0.00316th |
| Early-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Broncos defense | −0.00415th | +0.03912th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Cardinals defense | 32.1%30th | 41.8%19th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCardinals offense vs Broncos defense | 44.9%25th | 39.8%14th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Cardinals defense | −0.33832nd | +0.40831st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Broncos defense | −0.2398th | −0.22430th |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Cardinals defense | 64.7%11th | 72.7%26th |
| Red-zone TD rateCardinals offense vs Broncos defense | 52.9%11th | 50.0%25th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Cardinals defense | 38.3%23rd | 37.8%9th |
| Red-zone success rateCardinals offense vs Broncos defense | 41.3%13th | 36.4%27th |
On early downs the Broncos succeed on 37.0% of plays (28th) against a Cardinals defense that allows 43.0% (15th); on 3rd down they convert 32.1% (30th) against a defense allowing 41.8% (19th). On early downs the Cardinals succeed on 46.4% of plays (9th) against a Broncos defense that allows 37.6% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 39.8% (14th) against a defense allowing 44.9% (25th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 64.7% of red-zone trips (11th). The Cardinals score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (25th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Broncos | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean Payton | Mike LaFleur |
| Offensive coordinator | Davis Webb | Nathaniel Hackett |
| Defensive coordinator | Vance Joseph | Nick Rallis |
| Offense tendencies | Broncos | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −3.3%24th-highest | −0.6%12th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 59.6%19th-highest | 62.7%15th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 52.9%23rd-highest | 56.2%15th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 67.3%9th-highest | 56.4%22nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 5.3%19th-highest | 10.3%6th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.421st-slowest | 32.918th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 9.3%31st | 8.8%32nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 5.7%30th | 3.8%32nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 6.6%25th | 4.7%31st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 3.9%6th | 4.8%8th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.46%12th | 1.50%13th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 56.529th-most | 66.54th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 1 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Defense | Broncos | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 7.4%9th | 7.2%11th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 13.8%11th | 19.1%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 6.7%7th | 11.2%30th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 11.2%28th | 10.8%25th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.48%9th | 1.99%15th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 21.1%3rd | 15.6%16th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 11.4%1st | 15.6%17th |
The Broncos run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.3% pass rate over expected, 24th-highest), while the Cardinals sit at −0.6% (12th-highest). In neutral situations the Broncos take 32.4 seconds between snaps and the Cardinals 32.9, so the Broncos play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Broncos have gone for it 1 of 9 times and the Cardinals 5 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Broncos won 2 and the Cardinals 0. In the most recent meeting (December 18, 2022), the Broncos won 24-15; the Cardinals averaged −0.305 EPA per play; the Broncos averaged −0.049 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2022 | Cardinals 15, Broncos 24 Broncos won | Broncos -1.5 Broncos covered | 37.5 over | Cardinals −0.305 · Broncos −0.049 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | Broncos 45, Cardinals 10 Broncos won | Broncos -1 Broncos covered | 42.5 over | Cardinals −0.644 · Broncos +0.050 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Nov 1)
- Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (Oct 15)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
Arizona Cardinals
- Arizona Cardinals team stats
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 1)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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