Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Chargers (0-3) visit the Seahawks (2-1) at Lumen Field on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 4.
The Chargers have the 31st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the 11th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense. When the Chargers have the ball, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.188 EPA per play) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.156 allowed); when the Seahawks have it, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.051) meets a 18th-ranked defense (+0.017 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chargers offense is at 40.7% (23rd) and the Seahawks offense at 46.1% (11th). Through the air, the Chargers average −0.133 EPA per dropback (28th) against a Seahawks pass defense ranked 10th; the Seahawks average +0.285 (5th) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 24th. The Chargers score 14.7 points per game (29th) and allow 25.3 (20th); the Seahawks score 25.0 (13th) and allow 16.7 (3rd).
Drew Lock has a 51.0% success rate (9th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 39.3% (29th). Per dropback, Lock is at +0.476 EPA to Herbert's −0.133, with 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Herbert's 3 and 4.
The Chargers are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 24-16 loss to the Bills. The Seahawks are 2-1 and 1-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-31 loss to the Commanders.
The Seahawks are 7-point favorites at home against the Chargers. The spread opened at Seahawks -6.5. The total is 42.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Chargers +280, Seahawks -360) prices the Chargers at 25% and the Seahawks at 75%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Chargers2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks104
- Success rate39.3%29th
- EPA per dropback−0.13329th
- Completion %59.1%27th
- CPOE−4.229th
- Yards per attempt7.119th
- TD–INT3–4
- Sack rate7.7%26th
- Dropbacks51
- Success rate51.0%9th
- EPA per dropback+0.4762nd
- Completion %72.9%2nd
- CPOE+6.95th
- Yards per attempt8.84th
- TD–INT4–0
- Sack rate3.9%7th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Quentin Johnston leads the Chargers wide receivers with 64 receiving yards (78th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.8%. Omarion Hampton has 193 rushing yards on 50 carries (14th of 44 qualified running backs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks wide receivers with 405 receiving yards (1st of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 37.9%. Emanuel Wilson has 109 rushing yards on 32 carries (34th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries50
- Rush yards19314th
- Yards per carry3.928th
- EPA per rush−0.32140th
- Rush success rate40.0%21st
- Targets / catches17 / 6
- Receiving yards6478th
- Target share19.8%40th
- Yards per target3.884th
- EPA per target−0.18072nd
- Targets / catches8 / 6
- Receiving yards6729th
- Target share15.1%17th
- Yards per target8.410th
- EPA per target−0.63336th
- Carries32
- Rush yards10934th
- Yards per carry3.434th
- EPA per rush−0.28537th
- Rush success rate40.6%20th
- Targets / catches36 / 27
- Receiving yards4051st
- Target share37.9%1st
- Yards per target11.212th
- EPA per target+0.80513th
- Targets / catches12 / 8
- Receiving yards9019th
- Target share12.6%25th
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target−0.58235th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 43.4%15th | 34.8%2nd |
| Early-down success rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 44.5%18th | 47.1%8th |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.07422nd | −0.1151st |
| Early-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | −0.00616th | +0.03713th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 35.1%24th | 26.8%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 42.1%18th | 33.3%26th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.36830th | −0.5572nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | −0.00517th | +0.11110th |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 55.6%19th | 66.7%19th |
| Red-zone TD rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 58.3%13th | 58.3%18th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Seahawks defense | 40.0%19th | 35.7%8th |
| Red-zone success rateSeahawks offense vs Chargers defense | 33.3%6th | 38.5%21st |
On early downs the Chargers succeed on 43.4% of plays (15th) against a Seahawks defense that allows 34.8% (2nd); on 3rd down they convert 35.1% (24th) against a defense allowing 26.8% (2nd). On early downs the Seahawks succeed on 47.1% of plays (8th) against a Chargers defense that allows 44.5% (18th); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (26th) against a defense allowing 42.1% (18th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 55.6% of red-zone trips (19th). The Seahawks score touchdowns on 58.3% of red-zone trips (18th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jim Harbaugh | Mike Macdonald |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike McDaniel | Brian Fleury |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris O'Leary | Aden Durde |
| Offense tendencies | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −8.5%28th-highest | −2.7%21st-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 58.8%19th-highest | 56.7%23rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 51.5%23rd-highest | 51.4%24th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 69.5%1st-highest | 46.6%28th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 4.5%18th-highest | 1.7%29th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 35.03rd-slowest | 34.94th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 15.6%17th | 19.4%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.3%19th | 9.2%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 9.9%14th | 9.1%16th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 7.7%25th | 3.0%4th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 3.39%29th | 2.25%21st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 59.019th-most | 59.317th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Defense | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.9%11th | 6.5%15th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 14.7%15th | 5.9%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.5%18th | 2.0%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 8.1%12th | 4.3%3rd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 3.19%3rd | 2.26%11th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.6%6th | 20.4%5th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 20.2%31st | 14.9%16th |
The Chargers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−8.5% pass rate over expected, 28th-highest), while the Seahawks sit at −2.7% (21st-highest). In neutral situations the Chargers take 35.0 seconds between snaps and the Seahawks 34.9, so the Seahawks play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chargers have gone for it 0 of 1 times and the Seahawks 5 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Chargers have 7 days between games and the Seahawks 7. The Chargers travel about 965 miles. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
ChargersSeahawksLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Chargers won 1 and the Seahawks 1. In the most recent meeting (October 23, 2022), the Seahawks won 37-23; the Chargers averaged −0.244 EPA per play; the Seahawks averaged +0.128 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2022 | Seahawks 37, Chargers 23 Seahawks won | Chargers -5.5 Seahawks covered | 51.5 over | Chargers −0.244 · Seahawks +0.128 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | Chargers 25, Seahawks 17 Chargers won | Seahawks -1 Chargers covered | 48.5 under | Chargers +0.197 · Seahawks −0.077 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Chargers +6.5 (-107)
Chargers +7 (-105)
Seahawks -305 72%
Seahawks -360 75%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Chargers +8-120ProphetX
- Seahawks -7-112Caesars
- Over 43+101ProphetX
- Under 42.5+106Novig
- Chargers+308Novig
- Seahawks-300Polymarket
Dig deeper
Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 13)
Seattle Seahawks
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Oct 4)
- New York Jets at Chicago Bears (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (Oct 4)
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results