Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders Final — October 18, 2026
BUFStarting quarterbacksexpected startersLV
BUFOffense2026 regular season to dateLVBUFDefenseLVBUFRecent formLVBUFHome and roadseason to dateLVInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelLVBUFKey injuriesLVAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bills (4-1) visited the Raiders (3-2) at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 6.
The Bills have the 1st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the 14th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When the Bills have the ball, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.211 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.005 allowed); when the Raiders have it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.004) meets a 30th-ranked defense (+0.134 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bills offense is at 49.1% (3rd) and the Raiders offense at 42.6% (17th). Through the air, the Bills average +0.341 EPA per dropback (2nd) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 22nd; the Raiders average +0.141 (11th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 28th. The Bills score 32.8 points per game (1st) and allow 28.2 (28th); the Raiders score 26.4 (9th) and allow 25.8 (22nd).
Josh Allen has a 50.0% success rate (9th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Kirk Cousins' 48.6% (15th). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.353 EPA to Cousins' +0.164, with 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Cousins' 12 and 4.
The Bills are 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 37-34 win over the Rams. The Raiders are 3-2 and 4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
The Bills closed as 5.5-point road favorites, with the Raiders getting the points at home. The spread opened at Bills -6. The total closed at 53.5, up from 53 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bills -239, Raiders +195) prices the Bills at 68% and the Raiders at 32%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30
Buffalo Bills won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Las Vegas Raiders +5.5): Las Vegas Raiders covered.
- Combined score 63 vs the closing total of 53.5: Over.
- Buffalo Bills closed at -239 on the moneyline (a 68% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Las Vegas Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Bills 68%, Las Vegas Raiders 32%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 9:00 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 2nd & 12 at LV 29(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Williams at LV 32. 42-D.Williams to LV 32 for no gain (87-M.Mayer).Buffalo Bills 74% → 83% (+9 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:03 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 3rd & 10 at BUF 17(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 2 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford).Las Vegas Raiders 12% → 20% (+8 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:13 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 3rd & 8 at BUF 11(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Las Vegas Raiders 21% → 33% (+12 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:56 — Buffalo Bills ball, 3rd & 3 at LV 2917-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (11-J.Chinn).Buffalo Bills 79% → 90% (+12 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:39 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 1st & 10 at BUF 44(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Las Vegas Raiders 2% → 10% (+8 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Bills | Points added | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Passingdropbacks | -1.0 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.6 |
| +13.7 | Explosive plays9 plays · 10 plays | +18.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.0 |
| +3.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| +0.9 | Penalties7 for 72 yds · 7 for 62 yds | +1.4 |
| +2.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 2 of 5 | -1.0 |
| +15.2 | All plays | +6.6 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 5.0 points to Buffalo Bills. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Buffalo Bills closed as the market favourite at 68% and won.
The line moved toward Las Vegas Raiders before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bills -6 (-110)
Bills -5.5 (-107)
Raiders +225 30%
Raiders +195 32%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Khalil Shakir has 246 receiving yards for the Bills (32nd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.0%. James Cook has 532 rushing yards on 95 carries (3rd of 41 qualified running backs). Tre Tucker has 274 receiving yards for the Raiders (22nd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.3%. Ashton Jeanty has 291 rushing yards on 88 carries (16th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries95
- Rush yards5323rd
- Yards per carry5.64th
- EPA per rush+0.0638th
- Rush success rate52.6%1st
- Targets / catches26 / 18
- Receiving yards24632nd
- Target share20.0%37th
- Yards per target9.528th
- EPA per target+0.28545th
- Targets / catches21 / 16
- Receiving yards2775th
- Target share16.2%16th
- Yards per target13.21st
- EPA per target+0.5185th
- Carries88
- Rush yards29116th
- Yards per carry3.337th
- EPA per rush−0.28539th
- Rush success rate30.7%39th
- Targets / catches28 / 19
- Receiving yards27422nd
- Target share16.3%51st
- Yards per target9.824th
- EPA per target+0.36338th
- Targets / catches34 / 24
- Receiving yards3122nd
- Target share29.8%1st
- Yards per target9.26th
- EPA per target+0.5116th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bills | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Raiders defense | 47.7%5th | 45.1%22nd |
| Early-down success rateRaiders offense vs Bills defense | 48.2%30th | 42.6%20th |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Raiders defense | +0.1595th | +0.05221st |
| Early-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Bills defense | +0.13728th | −0.00618th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Raiders defense | 51.0%2nd | 42.9%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRaiders offense vs Bills defense | 43.3%23rd | 40.6%14th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Raiders defense | +0.3931st | −0.15011th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Bills defense | −0.15710th | +0.1497th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Raiders defense | 75.0%5th | 77.8%27th |
| Red-zone TD rateRaiders offense vs Bills defense | 80.0%29th | 57.9%19th |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Raiders defense | 45.3%11th | 54.2%30th |
| Red-zone success rateRaiders offense vs Bills defense | 54.1%29th | 29.4%32nd |
On early downs the Bills succeed on 47.7% of plays (5th) against a Raiders defense that allows 45.1% (22nd); on 3rd down they convert 51.0% (2nd) against a defense allowing 42.9% (22nd). On early downs the Raiders succeed on 42.6% of plays (20th) against a Bills defense that allows 48.2% (30th); on 3rd down they convert 40.6% (14th) against a defense allowing 43.3% (23rd). The Bills score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (5th). The Raiders score touchdowns on 57.9% of red-zone trips (19th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bills | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Brady | Klint Kubiak |
| Offensive coordinator | Pete Carmichael | Andrew Janocko |
| Defensive coordinator | Jim Leonhard | Rob Leonard |
| Offense tendencies | Bills | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −3.0%20th-highest | −2.6%15th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 57.0%26th-highest | 60.6%17th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 51.9%24th-highest | 54.1%18th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 45.5%32nd-highest | 56.1%22nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 4.1%22nd-highest | 7.3%10th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.721st-slowest | 34.54th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 23.4%1st | 18.2%8th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 15.6%1st | 9.4%14th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 16.1%1st | 6.4%27th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.0%18th | 4.2%5th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 3.07%30th | 1.58%13th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 58.023rd-most | 62.810th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 |
| Defense | Bills | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 4.9%22nd | 7.0%10th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 17.6%25th | 16.4%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 11.0%28th | 9.4%21st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 9.6%18th | 14.4%31st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 1.43%24th | 3.28%1st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.7%13th | 20.7%3rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.4%5th | 18.5%28th |
The Bills run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.0% pass rate over expected, 20th-highest), while the Raiders sit at −2.6% (15th-highest). In neutral situations the Bills take 32.7 seconds between snaps and the Raiders 34.5, so the Bills play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bills have gone for it 3 of 3 times and the Raiders 5 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Bills won 3 and the Raiders 1. In the most recent meeting (September 17, 2023), the Bills won 38-10; the Bills averaged +0.307 EPA per play; the Raiders averaged −0.261 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2023 | Raiders 10, Bills 38 Bills won | Bills -7.5 Bills covered | 47 over | Bills +0.307 · Raiders −0.261 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | Bills 30, Raiders 23 Bills won | Bills -3 Bills covered | 53 push | Bills +0.271 · Raiders −0.021 |
| Oct 29, 2017 | Raiders 14, Bills 34 Bills won | Bills -2.5 Bills covered | 47 over | Bills +0.147 · Raiders −0.125 |
| Dec 4, 2016 | Bills 24, Raiders 38 Raiders won | Raiders -3 Raiders covered | 48.5 over | Bills +0.079 · Raiders +0.123 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Nov 1)
- Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (Oct 12)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
Las Vegas Raiders
- Las Vegas Raiders team stats
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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