Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Final — October 12, 2026
BUFStarting quarterbacksexpected startersLAR
BUFOffense2026 regular season to dateLARBUFDefenseLARBUFRecent formLARBUFHome and roadseason to dateLARInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelLARBUFKey injuriesLARAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bills (3-1) visited the Rams (2-2) at SoFi Stadium on Monday, October 12 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 5.
The Bills have the 2nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Rams have the 11th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense. When the Bills have the ball, a 2nd-ranked offense (+0.191 EPA per play) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.122 allowed); when the Rams have it, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.026) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.106 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bills offense is at 47.7% (9th) and the Rams offense at 47.0% (10th). Through the air, the Bills average +0.268 EPA per dropback (4th) against a Rams pass defense ranked 2nd; the Rams average +0.058 (16th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 27th. The Bills score 31.8 points per game (1st) and allow 26.8 (25th); the Rams score 21.2 (19th) and allow 20.8 (9th).
Josh Allen has a 47.4% success rate (15th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Matthew Stafford's 46.8% (17th). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.286 EPA to Stafford's +0.053, with 6 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Stafford's 6 and 6.
The Bills are 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 29-26 loss to the Patriots. The Rams are 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 24-20 win over the Eagles.
The Rams closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Bills. The spread opened at Rams -2.5. The total closed at 55.5, up from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bills +148, Rams -177) prices the Bills at 39% and the Rams at 61%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34
Buffalo Bills won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Los Angeles Rams -3.5): Buffalo Bills covered.
- Combined score 71 vs the closing total of 55.5: Over.
- Buffalo Bills closed at +148 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Los Angeles Rams.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Bills 39%, Los Angeles Rams 61%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 0:08 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 1st & 1 at BUF 1(No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Los Angeles Rams 22% → 40% (+18 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 8:48 — Buffalo Bills ball, 2nd & 16 at BUF 21(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to LA 22 for 57 yards (5-K.Kinchens).Buffalo Bills 47% → 85% (+38 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 8:00 — Buffalo Bills ball, 1st & 10 at LA 224-J.Cook up the middle to LA 22 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 20.Los Angeles Rams 15% → 60% (+45 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 4:16 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 4th & 5 at BUF 3092-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (15-G.Rousseau), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.Buffalo Bills 32% → 64% (+32 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 2:00 — Buffalo Bills ball, 2nd & 10 at LA 2716-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.Buffalo Bills 75% → 100% (+25 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Buffalo Bills won after falling as low as 19% (OT 5:41).
Game DNA
| Bills | Points added | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 | Passingdropbacks | +2.3 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.0 |
| +25.6 | Explosive plays14 plays · 9 plays | +13.3 |
| -7.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +5.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -5.2 |
| -1.9 | Penalties13 for 112 yds · 11 for 84 yds | +1.8 |
| +4.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 5 of 5 | +6.7 |
| +20.9 | All plays | +14.8 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.3 points to Buffalo Bills. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Los Angeles Rams closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
The line moved toward Los Angeles Rams before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bills +2.5 (-110)
Bills +3.5 (-115)
Rams -138 56%
Rams -177 61%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Khalil Shakir has 166 receiving yards for the Bills (50th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.5%. James Cook has 421 rushing yards on 70 carries (3rd of 46 qualified running backs). Davante Adams has 390 receiving yards for the Rams (5th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.4%. Kyren Williams has 294 rushing yards on 54 carries (12th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries70
- Rush yards4213rd
- Yards per carry6.02nd
- EPA per rush+0.1313rd
- Rush success rate54.3%1st
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards16650th
- Target share20.5%34th
- Yards per target7.260th
- EPA per target+0.06560th
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards2701st
- Target share17.0%15th
- Yards per target14.21st
- EPA per target+0.6185th
- Carries54
- Rush yards29412th
- Yards per carry5.45th
- EPA per rush+0.0458th
- Rush success rate46.3%10th
- Targets / catches38 / 22
- Receiving yards3905th
- Target share24.4%20th
- Yards per target10.322nd
- EPA per target+0.39338th
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards14120th
- Target share15.1%19th
- Yards per target7.415th
- EPA per target+0.12024th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bills | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Rams defense | 45.4%13th | 40.6%7th |
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Bills defense | 48.6%29th | 46.2%9th |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Rams defense | +0.1267th | +0.02017th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Bills defense | +0.12428th | +0.06211th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Rams defense | 54.5%2nd | 33.3%6th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Bills defense | 41.5%20th | 44.0%10th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Rams defense | +0.4112nd | −0.5482nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Bills defense | −0.2398th | −0.08617th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Rams defense | 73.3%8th | 58.3%12th |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Bills defense | 73.3%26th | 53.3%21st |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Rams defense | 46.3%8th | 35.0%6th |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Bills defense | 51.1%27th | 43.2%12th |
On early downs the Bills succeed on 45.4% of plays (13th) against a Rams defense that allows 40.6% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 54.5% (2nd) against a defense allowing 33.3% (6th). On early downs the Rams succeed on 46.2% of plays (9th) against a Bills defense that allows 48.6% (29th); on 3rd down they convert 44.0% (10th) against a defense allowing 41.5% (20th). The Bills score touchdowns on 73.3% of red-zone trips (8th). The Rams score touchdowns on 53.3% of red-zone trips (21st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bills | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Brady | Sean McVay |
| Offensive coordinator | Pete Carmichael | Nathan Scheelhaase |
| Defensive coordinator | Jim Leonhard | Chris Shula |
| Offense tendencies | Bills | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.6%14th-highest | 0.8%11th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 58.7%21st-highest | 64.6%10th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 54.6%15th-highest | 60.8%8th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 45.5%31st-highest | 57.5%20th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 4.3%21st-highest | 12.3%4th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 32.123rd-slowest | 31.528th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 21.3%2nd | 15.6%18th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 14.2%1st | 9.6%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 15.8%1st | 10.5%10th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 6.5%19th | 3.5%5th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 2.98%26th | 2.99%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 58.221st-most | 67.03rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Defense | Bills | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 6.0%16th | 5.0%21st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 19.2%25th | 9.2%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 11.5%28th | 3.8%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.8%19th | 6.0%3rd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 1.85%16th | 1.26%23rd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 19.9%5th | 13.9%23rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 15.4%11th | 16.8%18th |
The Bills run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.6% pass rate over expected, 14th-highest), while the Rams sit at 0.8% (11th-highest). In neutral situations the Bills take 32.1 seconds between snaps and the Rams 31.5, so the Rams play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bills have gone for it 3 of 3 times and the Rams 3 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Bills won 3 and the Rams 1. In the most recent meeting (December 8, 2024), the Rams won 44-42; the Bills averaged +0.448 EPA per play; the Rams averaged +0.286 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | Bills 42, Rams 44 Rams won | Bills -3.5 Rams covered | 49.5 over | Bills +0.448 · Rams +0.286 |
| Sep 8, 2022 | Bills 31, Rams 10 Bills won | Bills -1 Bills covered | 51.5 under | Bills +0.175 · Rams −0.273 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Rams 32, Bills 35 Bills won | Bills -1.5 Bills covered | 46.5 over | Bills +0.195 · Rams +0.332 |
| Oct 9, 2016 | Bills 30, Rams 19 Bills won | Bills -2.5 Bills covered | 41.5 over | Bills +0.066 · Rams −0.230 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Nov 1)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
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