Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings Final — October 25, 2026
INDStarting quarterbacksexpected startersMIN
INDOffense2026 regular season to dateMININDDefenseMININDRecent formMININDHome and roadseason to dateMINInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
INDRest & travelMININDKey injuriesMINAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Colts (2-4) visited the Vikings (5-0) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 7.
The Colts have the 22nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 26th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings have the 27th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When the Colts have the ball, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.062 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.210 allowed); when the Vikings have it, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.099) meets a 26th-ranked defense (+0.068 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Colts offense is at 42.1% (19th) and the Vikings offense at 35.9% (32nd). Through the air, the Colts average −0.144 EPA per dropback (28th) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 1st; the Vikings average −0.034 (23rd) against a Colts pass defense ranked 22nd. The Colts score 24.0 points per game (14th) and allow 27.3 (27th); the Vikings score 21.8 (22nd) and allow 12.8 (1st).
Over the last five games, the Colts rank 18th on offense and 21st on defense by EPA per play; the Vikings rank 26th and 1st.
Daniel Jones has a 42.3% success rate (23rd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Kyler Murray's 37.4% (33rd). Per dropback, Jones is at −0.144 EPA to Murray's −0.085, with 4 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions to Murray's 2 and 2.
The Colts are 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 26-20 loss to the Titans. The Vikings are 5-0 and 4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 23-13 win over the Saints. The Vikings are coming off a bye.
The Vikings closed as 7-point favorites at home against the Colts. The spread opened at Vikings -6. The total closed at 41.5, down from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Colts +265, Vikings -335) prices the Colts at 26% and the Vikings at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16
Minnesota Vikings won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Vikings -7): Indianapolis Colts covered.
- Combined score 26 vs the closing total of 41.5: Under.
- Minnesota Vikings closed at -335 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Minnesota Vikings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Indianapolis Colts 26%, Minnesota Vikings 74%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 2:19 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 4th & 2 at MIN 373-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.Minnesota Vikings 43% → 57% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 15:00 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 8 at IND 40(Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 5 for 35 yards (0-C.Bynum). IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt was injured during the play.Minnesota Vikings 53% → 70% (+18 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:38 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 4th & 12 at IND 4116-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.Indianapolis Colts 22% → 33% (+11 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 7:14 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 3rd & 3 at MIN 44(Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to MIN 38 for 6 yards (22-H.Smith).Indianapolis Colts 30% → 39% (+9 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:27 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 4th & 2 at MIN 303-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.Minnesota Vikings 69% → 87% (+19 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
Minnesota Vikings won after falling as low as 38% (Q3 3:45).
Game DNA
| Colts | Points added | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 | Passingdropbacks | -9.0 |
| -5.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.1 |
| +5.8 | Explosive plays3 plays · 8 plays | +12.8 |
| -4.4 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.6 |
| -2.4 | Penalties6 for 46 yds · 4 for 24 yds | -0.1 |
| -0.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 1 of 2 | -0.1 |
| -14.0 | All plays | -2.8 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.1 points to Indianapolis Colts. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Minnesota Vikings closed as the market favourite at 74% and won.
The line moved toward Minnesota Vikings before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Colts +6 (-114)
Colts +7 (-110)
Vikings -275 70%
Vikings -335 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Keenan Allen has 227 receiving yards for the Colts (49th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.9%. Jonathan Taylor has 488 rushing yards on 121 carries (6th of 40 qualified running backs). Jordan Addison has 163 receiving yards for the Vikings (70th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.0%. Aaron Jones has 410 rushing yards on 97 carries (10th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries121
- Rush yards4886th
- Yards per carry4.019th
- EPA per rush−0.01516th
- Rush success rate40.5%19th
- Targets / catches40 / 26
- Receiving yards22749th
- Target share22.9%25th
- Yards per target5.770th
- EPA per target+0.07457th
- Targets / catches6 / 2
- Receiving yards20
- Target share15.8%
- Yards per target3.3
- EPA per target−0.868
- Carries97
- Rush yards41010th
- Yards per carry4.216th
- EPA per rush−0.13927th
- Rush success rate36.1%25th
- Targets / catches22 / 11
- Receiving yards16370th
- Target share22.0%29th
- Yards per target7.454th
- EPA per target−0.10271st
- Targets / catches27 / 23
- Receiving yards20216th
- Target share20.9%6th
- Yards per target7.515th
- EPA per target+0.6334th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Colts | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Vikings defense | 40.5%22nd | 34.8%1st |
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Colts defense | 46.3%28th | 32.1%32nd |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Vikings defense | −0.10027th | −0.1223rd |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Colts defense | +0.10829th | −0.11629th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Vikings defense | 37.8%20th | 22.2%1st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Colts defense | 30.9%4th | 39.5%15th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Vikings defense | −0.04916th | −0.4262nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Colts defense | −0.01719th | −0.13922nd |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Vikings defense | 63.2%12th | 25.0%1st |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Colts defense | 61.1%17th | 46.2%31st |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Vikings defense | 44.8%11th | 24.3%1st |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Colts defense | 42.6%17th | 35.3%28th |
On early downs the Colts succeed on 40.5% of plays (22nd) against a Vikings defense that allows 34.8% (1st); on 3rd down they convert 37.8% (20th) against a defense allowing 22.2% (1st). On early downs the Vikings succeed on 32.1% of plays (32nd) against a Colts defense that allows 46.3% (28th); on 3rd down they convert 39.5% (15th) against a defense allowing 30.9% (4th). The Colts score touchdowns on 63.2% of red-zone trips (12th). The Vikings score touchdowns on 46.2% of red-zone trips (31st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Colts | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Shane Steichen | Kevin O'Connell |
| Offensive coordinator | Jim Bob Cooter | Wes Phillips |
| Defensive coordinator | Lou Anarumo | Brian Flores |
| Offense tendencies | Colts | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −2.8%21st-highest | −3.8%25th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 60.2%18th-highest | 57.0%27th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 55.8%16th-highest | 46.3%31st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 62.5%16th-highest | 60.6%17th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 3.0%27th-highest | 5.7%14th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.315th-slowest | 34.15th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 11.6%28th | 14.9%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 7.6%23rd | 7.8%21st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 12.1%5th | 7.1%22nd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 6.3%19th | 8.8%28th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.77%26th | 1.34%10th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 66.26th-most | 59.422nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 8 of 13 | 3 of 5 |
| Defense | Colts | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 4.8%22nd | 9.5%1st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 16.7%22nd | 13.0%7th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 8.1%13th | 7.4%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 8.7%13th | 8.0%9th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 0.87%30th | 3.21%1st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 12.5%29th | 24.0%1st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 16.3%21st | 14.2%9th |
The Colts run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.8% pass rate over expected, 21st-highest), while the Vikings sit at −3.8% (25th-highest). In neutral situations the Colts take 33.3 seconds between snaps and the Vikings 34.1, so the Colts play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Colts have gone for it 8 of 13 times and the Vikings 3 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Colts won 2 and the Vikings 2. In the most recent meeting (November 3, 2024), the Vikings won 21-13; the Colts averaged −0.326 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged −0.042 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | Colts 13, Vikings 21 Vikings won | Vikings -6.5 Vikings covered | 47 under | Colts −0.326 · Vikings −0.042 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Colts 36, Vikings 39 Vikings won | Vikings -3.5 Colts covered | 46.5 over | Colts −0.180 · Vikings −0.128 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | Vikings 11, Colts 28 Colts won | Colts -3.5 Colts covered | 49 under | Colts +0.066 · Vikings −0.284 |
| Dec 18, 2016 | Colts 34, Vikings 6 Colts won | Vikings -5 Colts covered | 44.5 under | Colts +0.173 · Vikings −0.350 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (Nov 1)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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