Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL · October 19, 2026

San Jose Sharks vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — October 19, 2026

San Jose Sharks logo
San Jose Sharks
4-3-1
1
Goalie Yaroslav Askarov Confirmed
FINAL
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Toronto Maple Leafs
3-4-2
3
Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Confirmed
Monday, October 19 · 7:40 PM ET
SJStarting goaliesTOR
This season
5
Starts
6
.848
Sv%
.890
.912
HDSv%
.893
−2.5
GSAx
−0.4
Last season
47
Starts
51
.884
Sv%
.877
.859
HDSv%
.799
−21.5
GSAx
−18.1
SJOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TOR
18th3.06
GF/G
3.0916th
15th7.58
PP GF/60
6.9021st
SJDefenseTOR
30th3.56
GA/G
3.6531st
25th8.38
PK GA/60
6.386th
SJTeamTOR
22nd52.4%
Pts%
47.6%28th
26th47.4%
xGF%
45.5%29th
28th46.9%
CF%
44.8%32nd
7th54.7%
HDCF%
45.2%28th
SJ5-on-5TOR
26th2.32
xGF/60
2.2828th
19th2.55
xGA/60
2.7427th
11th10.1%
Sh%
10.3%8th
25th89.7%
Sv%
90.0%22nd
25th112.1
CF/60 (both)
117.110th
5th+0.24
GAx/G
+0.207th
29th−0.34
GSAx/G
−0.1124th
6th11.3%
Sh%
10.9%10th
25th88.7%
Sv%
89.7%15th
13th52.1%
xGF% (L20)
40.5%31st
SJSpecial teamsTOR
27th7.07
PP xG/60
7.3319th
27th72.3
PP FF/60
73.325th
5th5.1
PP min/G
4.131st
22nd8.09
PK xGA/60
8.7831st
23rd5.0
PK min/G
4.819th
SJRecent formTOR
W@ STL 3-2Lvs EDM 1-3Lvs BOS 3-6W@ NSH 3-2OTL@ DET 3-4
Resultsoldest to newest
OTL@ VGK 3-4W@ COL 6-3L@ UTA 4-5OTLvs BUF 4-5Lvs NYI 1-4
below 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%
Game by game
above 50%below 50%above 50%above 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%above 50%above 50%
4-3-1
Record
3-4-2
2-2-1
Last 5
1-2-2
4-4
Over–under
—
SJHome and roadseason to dateTOR
2-2-0
Home record
2-3-1
2-1-1
Road record
1-1-1
3-1
Home O/U
—
1-3
Road O/U
—
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SJRest & travelTOR
2 days
Days of rest
2 days
206 mi332 km
Travel to the game
Home
SJKey injuriesTOR
None listed
Players out or limited
John Tavares CIRWilliam Nylander RWDay-to-day
About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 19, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Sharks (4-3-1) visited the Maple Leafs (3-4-2) on Monday, October 19 at 7:40 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Sharks scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.56 (30th). The Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Sharks earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Maple Leafs 47.6% (28th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sharks 47.4% (26th), Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sharks 46.9% (28th), Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sharks 54.7% (7th), Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sharks +120, Maple Leafs -145) prices the Sharks at 43% and the Maple Leafs at 57%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

San Jose Sharks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Toronto Maple Leafs won by 2.

  • Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
  • Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final
San Jose Sharks 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Decided
In regulation
Toronto Maple Leafs won
Lead changes
1

Before the game: market and G&W

43%Market at the close57%
San Jose SharksToronto Maple Leafs
44%Market at the open56%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Toronto Maple Leafs.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose Sharks 43%, Toronto Maple Leafs 57%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

100%75%50%75%100%1st2nd3rdOTMarket start11st 13:54: San Jose Sharks 44% to 61%22nd 19:48: Toronto Maple Leafs 32% to 56%33rd 4:56: Toronto Maple Leafs 55% to 82%■ Maple Leafs■ Sharks
 

Biggest swings

  1. 1st 13:54 — San Jose Sharks goal (1-0)San Jose Sharks 44% → 61% (+17 pts)
  2. 2nd 19:48 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (1-1)Toronto Maple Leafs 32% → 56% (+24 pts)
  3. 3rd 4:56 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (1-2)Toronto Maple Leafs 55% → 82% (+27 pts)

Toronto Maple Leafs won after falling as low as 28% (2nd 14:59).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

43%SJS
Share of G&W replays won
57%TOR
3.5
Expected goals
4.2
1
Final score
3

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Toronto Maple Leafs won 57% of G&W replays (San Jose Sharks 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

SharksGoalsMaple Leafs
2.85-on-5 chancesexpected goals
2.1
0.5Power-play chancesexpected goals
1.3
0.2Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed
0.8
3.5Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result
4.2
0.4Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above
0.4
-2.5Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots
-2.2
+2.2Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Yaroslav Askarov 29/31 · Sergei Bobrovsky 30/31
+2.5
0Empty-net goals1
Bar left: Sharks gainedBar right: Maple Leafs gained

How the margin was built, from Toronto Maple Leafs's side:

Chances +0.7Finishing & goaltending +0.3Empty net +1Toronto Maple Leafs by 2

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move
OpenMaple Leafs -1.5 (+160)
Sharks +1.5 (-198)
CloseMaple Leafs -1.5 (+167)
Sharks +1.5 (-209)
Totalno move
Open6.5 (o -124 / u +102)
Close6.5 (o -145 / u +118)
Moneyline
OpenSharks +118 44%
Maple Leafs -141 56%
CloseSharks +120 43%
Maple Leafs -145 57%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %
Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/moSee today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Sharks won 7 and the Maple Leafs 7.

DateScoreLineTotal
Apr 2, 2026Maple Leafs 1, Sharks 4
Sharks won

Dec 11, 2025Sharks 3, Maple Leafs 2 OT
Sharks won		Maple Leafs -205
underdog won		6.5
under
Mar 27, 2025Maple Leafs 5, Sharks 6 SO
Sharks won		Maple Leafs -250
underdog won		6
over
Mar 3, 2025Sharks 3, Maple Leafs 2 SO
Sharks won		Maple Leafs -350
underdog won		6.5
under
Jan 9, 2024Sharks 1, Maple Leafs 7
Maple Leafs won		Maple Leafs -445
favorite won		6
over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams

San Jose Sharks

Toronto Maple Leafs

More NHL games on October 19, 2026

All NHL games in October 2026

Follow the market every day

See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.

Odds boardTracked results