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NHL · October 17, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights Final — October 17, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins

3-4-1

Goalie Sergei Murashov Confirmed

FINAL

Vegas Golden Knights

7-2-0

Goalie Adin Hill Confirmed

Saturday, October 17 · 10:10 PM ET

PITStarting goaliesVGK

This season

Starts

.908

Sv%

.901

.875

HDSv%

.769

−0.2

GSAx

−0.3

Last season

Starts

.897

Sv%

.871

1.000

HDSv%

.746

−1.0

GSAx

−16.2

PITOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)VGK

3rd3.57

GF/G

3.2314th

10th8.50

PP GF/60

9.643rd

PITDefenseVGK

24th3.27

GA/G

3.0513th

7th6.78

PK GA/60

6.858th

PITTeamVGK

10th59.8%

Pts%

57.9%12th

8th51.7%

xGF%

54.5%4th

13th50.2%

CF%

52.3%7th

3rd57.4%

HDCF%

59.9%1st

PIT5-on-5VGK

6th2.72

xGF/60

2.5714th

16th2.54

xGA/60

2.152nd

2nd11.1%

Sh%

9.3%19th

20th90.1%

Sv%

89.0%31st

11th116.9

CF/60 (both)

112.624th

3rd+0.26

GAx/G

+0.0417th

20th−0.08

GSAx/G

−0.3731st

3rd11.8%

Sh%

10.8%13th

24th89.1%

Sv%

88.4%28th

18th50.8%

xGF% (L20)

57.9%2nd

PITSpecial teamsVGK

12th7.74

PP xG/60

9.292nd

13th80.0

PP FF/60

83.47th

19th4.6

PP min/G

4.426th

4th6.50

PK xGA/60

5.921st

15th4.7

PK min/G

4.12nd

PITRecent formVGK

L@ WSH 3-5OTL@ CBJ 2-3Wvs DAL 2-1L@ CHI 3-5L@ COL 2-5

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs TOR 4-3Wvs LAK 2-1L@ MIN 2-4W@ NSH 5-2Wvs CGY 6-2

Game by game

3-4-1

Record

7-2-0

1-3-1

Last 5

4-1-0

5-3

Over–under

6-3

PITHome and roadseason to dateVGK

2-1-0

Home record

4-1-0

1-3-1

Road record

3-1-0

1-2

Home O/U

4-1

Road O/U

2-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

PITRest & travelVGK

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

2 days

608 mi979 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

PITKey injuriesVGK

Egor Chinakhov RWOutTrevor van Riemsdyk DIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 8:10 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Penguins (3-4-1) visited the Golden Knights (7-2-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 10:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Penguins scored 3.57 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allowed 3.27 (24th). The Golden Knights scored 3.23 goals per game (14th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Penguins earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Golden Knights 57.9% (12th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Penguins 51.7% (8th), Golden Knights 54.5% (4th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Penguins 50.2% (13th), Golden Knights 52.3% (7th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Penguins 57.4% (3rd), Golden Knights 59.9% (1st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penguins +180, Golden Knights -220) prices the Penguins at 34% and the Golden Knights at 66%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6

Vegas Golden Knights won by 4.

Against the closing spread (Vegas Golden Knights -1.5): Vegas Golden Knights covered.
Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Vegas Golden Knights closed at -220 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Vegas Golden Knights 6

Decided

In regulation

Vegas Golden Knights won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

34%Market at the close66%

Pittsburgh PenguinsVegas Golden Knights

32%Market at the open68%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Pittsburgh Penguins.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Penguins 34%, Vegas Golden Knights 66%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 1:06 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (0-1)Vegas Golden Knights 66% → 79% (+13 pts)
1st 4:02 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (0-2)Vegas Golden Knights 79% → 88% (+10 pts)
1st 17:46 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (0-3)Vegas Golden Knights 90% → 96% (+6 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

54%PIT

Share of G&W replays won

46%VGK

2.4

Expected goals

2.1

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Pittsburgh Penguins won 54% of G&W replays (Vegas Golden Knights 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Penguins	Goals	Golden Knights
2.3	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.6
0.1	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.5
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.4	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.1
0.4	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.1
-0.4	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+2.9
-2.9	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sergei Murashov 14/19 · Adin Hill 22/24	+0.4
0	Empty-net goals	1

Bar left: Penguins gainedBar right: Golden Knights gained

How the margin was built, from Vegas Golden Knights's side:

Chances -0.3Finishing & goaltending +3.3Empty net +1Vegas Golden Knights by 4

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playPittsburgh Penguins ML +1992.00uLOSS -2.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Vegas Golden Knights closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.

The line moved toward Pittsburgh Penguins before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenGolden Knights -1.5 (-100)
Penguins +1.5 (-120)

CloseGolden Knights -1.5 (+110)
Penguins +1.5 (-133)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -118 / u -104)

Close6.5 (o -125 / u +104)

Moneyline

OpenPenguins +195 32%
Golden Knights -240 68%

ClosePenguins +180 34%
Golden Knights -220 66%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Penguins won 8 and the Golden Knights 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 12, 2026	Penguins 2, Golden Knights 6 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -175 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 1, 2026	Golden Knights 0, Penguins 5 Penguins won	Golden Knights -150 underdog won	6.5 under
Mar 11, 2025	Golden Knights 2, Penguins 3 OT Penguins won	Golden Knights -194 underdog won	6.5 under
Mar 7, 2025	Penguins 0, Golden Knights 4 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -250 favorite won	6.5 under
Jan 20, 2024	Penguins 2, Golden Knights 3 Golden Knights won	Penguins -133 underdog won	6 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams