Boston Bruins vs Dallas Stars Final — October 20, 2026
BOSStarting goaliesDAL
BOSOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DALBOSDefenseDALBOSTeamDALBOS5-on-5DALBOSSpecial teamsDALBOSRecent formDALBOSHome and roadseason to dateDALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BOSRest & travelDALBOSKey injuriesDALAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 20, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Bruins (7-2-0) visited the Stars (4-3-1) on Tuesday, October 20 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Bruins scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Bruins earned 61.0% of available standings points (8th) and the Stars 68.3% (3rd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Bruins 47.1% (28th), Stars 50.8% (13th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Bruins 48.9% (19th), Stars 47.5% (27th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Bruins 42.5% (31st), Stars 55.9% (5th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bruins +135, Stars -165) prices the Bruins at 41% and the Stars at 59%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Boston Bruins 2, Dallas Stars 3
Dallas Stars won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Dallas Stars -1.5): Boston Bruins covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Dallas Stars closed at -165 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Dallas Stars 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Boston Bruins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Boston Bruins 41%, Dallas Stars 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 13:38 — Dallas Stars goal (2-2)Dallas Stars 16% → 54% (+38 pts)
- OT 2:28 — Boston Bruins faceoffDallas Stars 52% → 73% (+21 pts)
- OT 3:52 — Dallas Stars goal (2-3)Dallas Stars 63% → 100% (+37 pts)
Dallas Stars won after falling as low as 16% (3rd 13:38).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 59% of G&W replays (Boston Bruins 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Bruins | Goals | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.1 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.1 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 1.3 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| -0.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.0 |
| +1.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jeremy Swayman 22/25 · Jake Oettinger 18/20 | +0.1 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bruins +1.5 (-175)
Bruins +1.5 (-191)
Stars -170 60%
Stars -165 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Bruins won 9 and the Stars 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Stars 3, Bruins 6 Bruins won | ||
| Jan 20, 2026 | Bruins 2, Stars 6 Stars won | Stars -142 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Bruins 2, Stars 7 Stars won | Stars -178 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Stars 5, Bruins 2 Stars won | Bruins -119 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Stars 3, Bruins 4 SO Bruins won | Bruins -141 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Boston Bruins
- Boston Bruins team stats
- Boston Bruins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (Oct 27)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- Nashville Predators 0, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 22)
Dallas Stars
More NHL games on October 20, 2026
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- Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 20)
- Los Angeles Kings 5, Washington Capitals 2 (Oct 20)
- Winnipeg Jets 1, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 20)
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