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NHL · October 20, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets Final — October 20, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs

4-4-2

Goalie Anthony Stolarz Confirmed

FINAL

Columbus Blue Jackets

3-4-0

Goalie Jet Greaves Confirmed

Tuesday, October 20 · 7:10 PM ET

TORStarting goaliesCBJ

This season

Starts

.875

Sv%

.905

.857

HDSv%

.842

−1.1

GSAx

+1.5

Last season

Starts

.893

Sv%

.908

.871

HDSv%

.853

−5.3

GSAx

+18.2

TOROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CBJ

16th3.09

GF/G

3.0916th

21st6.90

PP GF/60

6.8822nd

TORDefenseCBJ

31st3.65

GA/G

3.0916th

6th6.38

PK GA/60

8.3724th

TORTeamCBJ

28th47.6%

Pts%

56.1%15th

29th45.5%

xGF%

51.4%10th

32nd44.8%

CF%

50.8%11th

28th45.2%

HDCF%

50.3%15th

TOR5-on-5CBJ

28th2.28

xGF/60

2.669th

27th2.74

xGA/60

2.5114th

8th10.3%

Sh%

9.1%22nd

22nd90.0%

Sv%

91.1%10th

10th117.1

CF/60 (both)

119.54th

7th+0.20

GAx/G

−0.1122nd

24th−0.11

GSAx/G

+0.1210th

10th10.9%

Sh%

9.6%27th

15th89.7%

Sv%

89.9%12th

31st40.5%

xGF% (L20)

53.7%6th

TORSpecial teamsCBJ

19th7.33

PP xG/60

7.2420th

25th73.3

PP FF/60

75.523rd

31st4.1

PP min/G

4.032nd

31st8.78

PK xGA/60

8.7030th

19th4.8

PK min/G

4.511th

TORRecent formCBJ

W@ COL 6-3L@ UTA 4-5OTLvs BUF 4-5Lvs NYI 1-4Wvs SJS 3-1

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs PIT 3-2L@ STL 3-5Lvs FLA 3-7Wvs NYR 1-0L@ MIN 1-2

Game by game

4-4-2

Record

3-4-0

2-2-1

Last 5

2-3-0

4-4-2

Last 10

—

TORHome and roadseason to dateCBJ

3-3-1

Home record

3-2-0

1-1-1

Road record

0-2-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TORRest & travelCBJ

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

2 days

315 mi507 km

Travel to the game

Home

TORKey injuriesCBJ

John Tavares CIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 20, 10:10 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Maple Leafs (4-4-2) visited the Blue Jackets (3-4-0) on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Blue Jackets scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.09 (16th). The Maple Leafs earned 47.6% of available standings points (28th) and the Blue Jackets 56.1% (15th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th), Blue Jackets 51.4% (10th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd), Blue Jackets 50.8% (11th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th), Blue Jackets 50.3% (15th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maple Leafs +135, Blue Jackets -160) prices the Maple Leafs at 41% and the Blue Jackets at 59%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2

Toronto Maple Leafs won by 4.

Against the closing spread (Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Toronto Maple Leafs closed at +135 on the moneyline (a 41% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Columbus Blue Jackets 2

Decided

In regulation

Toronto Maple Leafs won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

41%Market at the close59%

Toronto Maple LeafsColumbus Blue Jackets

41%Market at the open59%

The market barely moved from open to close.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toronto Maple Leafs 41%, Columbus Blue Jackets 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 8:16 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (1-1)Toronto Maple Leafs 28% → 43% (+15 pts)
2nd 2:26 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (2-1)Toronto Maple Leafs 43% → 61% (+19 pts)
2nd 3:12 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (3-1)Toronto Maple Leafs 62% → 78% (+16 pts)

Toronto Maple Leafs won after falling as low as 25% (1st 5:41).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

41%TOR

Share of G&W replays won

59%CBJ

2.4

Expected goals

3.0

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Columbus Blue Jackets won 59% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Maple Leafs	Goals	Blue Jackets
1.2	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.8
1.0	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.2	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.4
2.4	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.0
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.5
+3.5	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.0
+1.0	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Anthony Stolarz 35/37 · Jet Greaves 14/19, Cam Talbot 2/3	-3.5

Bar left: Maple Leafs gainedBar right: Blue Jackets gained

How the margin was built, from Toronto Maple Leafs's side:

Chances -0.6Finishing & goaltending +4.6Toronto Maple Leafs by 4

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Columbus Blue Jackets closed as the market favourite at 59% and lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenBlue Jackets -1.5 (+150)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-187)

CloseBlue Jackets -1.5 (+152)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-192)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Close6.5 (o -105 / u -118)

Moneyline

OpenMaple Leafs +135 41%
Blue Jackets -159 59%

CloseMaple Leafs +135 41%
Blue Jackets -160 59%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 20 times since 2018-19: the Maple Leafs won 10 and the Blue Jackets 10.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 26, 2025	Maple Leafs 2, Blue Jackets 1 OT Maple Leafs won		6.5 under
Nov 20, 2025	Blue Jackets 3, Maple Leafs 2 OT Blue Jackets won	Blue Jackets -118 favorite won	6.5 under
Oct 29, 2025	Maple Leafs 3, Blue Jackets 6 Blue Jackets won	Blue Jackets -125 favorite won	6.5 over
Apr 5, 2025	Blue Jackets 0, Maple Leafs 5 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -185 favorite won	6.5 under
Jan 22, 2025	Blue Jackets 5, Maple Leafs 1 Blue Jackets won	Maple Leafs -200 underdog won	6.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams