South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners Final — October 8, 2026
USFOffense2026 regular season to dateUTSA
USFDefenseUTSAUSFRecent formUTSAUSFHome and roadseason to dateUTSAUSFLast 10 gamesUTSARest & travelrest and travel
USFRest & travelUTSAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
South Florida (3-1) visited UTSA (3-1) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:30 PM ET.
South Florida has the 73rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 33rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UTSA has the 55th-ranked offense and the 80th-ranked defense. When South Florida has the ball, a 73rd-ranked offense (+0.047 EPA per play) meets a 80th-ranked defense (+0.095 allowed); when UTSA has it, a 55th-ranked offense (+0.096) meets a 33rd-ranked defense (−0.059 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the South Florida offense is at 46.7% (68th) and the UTSA offense at 46.6% (70th). South Florida scores 18.5 points per game (105th) and allows 14.0 (10th); UTSA scores 28.0 (57th) and allows 28.8 (82nd).
South Florida is 4-1 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 17-13 loss to Temple. UTSA is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 16-14 win over Rice.
UTSA closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against South Florida. The spread opened at UTSA -6.5. The total closed at 49.5, down from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (South Florida +185, UTSA -225) prices South Florida at 34% and UTSA at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
South Florida Bulls 24, UTSA Roadrunners 31
UTSA Roadrunners won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (UTSA Roadrunners -5.5): UTSA Roadrunners covered.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- UTSA Roadrunners closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward South Florida Bulls.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (South Florida Bulls 34%, UTSA Roadrunners 66%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 3:13 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 3rd & 2 at UTSA 47Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 53 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #67 J.Steph…UTSA Roadrunners 52% → 65% (+13 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:01 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 1st & 3 at USF 3Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 0 yards to the USF03 (#7 S.Robinson; #9 I.Boyce)South Florida Bulls 43% → 63% (+19 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:56 — South Florida Bulls ball, 2nd & 11 at UTSA 11Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #5 D.Crowther caught at UTSA06, for 11 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #7 N.Gramatica kick atte…South Florida Bulls 27% → 43% (+16 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:22 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 3rd & 5 at UTSA 30No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush right for 19 yards gain to the UTSA49 (#12 J.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNUTSA Roadrunners 48% → 63% (+15 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:18 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 1st & 10 at USF 27No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 26 yards gain to the USF01 (#16 T.Foster), 1ST DOWNUTSA Roadrunners 73% → 95% (+23 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
UTSA Roadrunners won after falling as low as 36% (Q2 2:59).
Game DNA
| South Florida | Points added | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 | Passingdropbacks | -0.2 |
| +2.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +6.3 |
| +4.2 | Explosive plays2 plays · 5 plays | +15.8 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +6.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.9 |
| -1.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.0 |
| +1.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 4 | -0.4 |
| +16.1 | All plays | +23.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.6 points to UTSA Roadrunners. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
UTSA Roadrunners closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward South Florida Bulls before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
South Florida +6.5 (-100)
South Florida +5.5 (-105)
UTSA -280 71%
UTSA -225 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts123
- Completion %62.6%116th
- Passing yards896135th
- Yards per attempt7.3137th
- TD–INT3–0
- Rushing yards39335th
- Season line74 carries, 393 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards240149th
- Tackles29192nd
- Attempts151
- Completion %68.2%44th
- Passing yards1,010109th
- Yards per attempt6.7176th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards39834th
- Season line65 carries, 398 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards269107th
- Season line18 catches, 269 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4416th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | South Florida | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSouth Florida offense vs UTSA defense | 42.5%74th | 41.9%57th |
| Early-down success rateUTSA offense vs South Florida defense | 40.3%35th | 42.9%70th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Florida offense vs UTSA defense | 43.8%49th | 38.3%59th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUTSA offense vs South Florida defense | 37.0%46th | 33.3%107th |
| Explosive play rateSouth Florida offense vs UTSA defense | 5.3%106th | 4.9%20th |
| Explosive play rateUTSA offense vs South Florida defense | 5.3%28th | 4.3%122nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 42.0%117th-highest | 50.0%77th-highest |
On 3rd down South Florida converts 43.8% (49th) against a UTSA defense allowing 38.3% (59th).
On 3rd down UTSA converts 33.3% (107th) against a South Florida defense allowing 37.0% (46th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | South Florida | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brian Hartline | Jeff Traylor |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–1 | 57–27 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 4–1 | 57–27 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tim Beck | Rick Bowie |
| Defensive coordinator | Josh Aldridge | Jess Loepp |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: South Florida won 1 and UTSA 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | UTSA 23, South Florida 55 South Florida won | ||
| Nov 17, 2023 | South Florida 21, UTSA 49 UTSA won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
South Florida Bulls
- South Florida Bulls team stats
- UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls (Oct 31)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 2, South Florida Bulls 29 (Oct 17)
- Temple Owls 17, South Florida Bulls 13 (Oct 3)
UTSA Roadrunners
- UTSA Roadrunners team stats
- UTSA Roadrunners 42, Tulane Green Wave 19 (Oct 24)
- Navy Midshipmen 34, UTSA Roadrunners 38 (Oct 17)
- UTSA Roadrunners 16, Rice Owls 14 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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